THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET FOR NOW. WILL BE WATCHING SOME FUTURE WAVES OVER AFRICA IN THE COMING WEEK FOR DEVELOPMENT THO.
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Thursday, June 22, 2017
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 22, 2017 1242 PM EDT
The tropics remain quiet for now. Cindy continues to wind down and remains a rain threat for those areas affected. Check back daily for tropical updates and storm reports from RTW.
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Wednesday, June 21, 2017
TROPICAL STORM CINDY UPDATE JUNE 21, 2017 0505 PM EDT
000 WTNT33 KNHC 212034 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CINDY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 93.2W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 93.2 West. Cindy is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight and Thursday, with a turn toward the northeast expected on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy will move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late tonight or early Thursday, then move near or over extreme eastern Texas, western and northern Louisiana, and southeastern Arkansas Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from oil rigs near the center is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and eastern Texas through Thursday night. Rainfall should spread northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area this afternoon through Thursday. STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible into tonight from the far western Florida Panhandle across southwestern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.
TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 21 2017 0340 PM EDT
Other than Cindy in the Gulf of Mexico the tropics remain quiet for now. Check back daily for updates from Ralph's Tropical Weather.
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 21, 2017 1213 PM EDT
Other than Cindy in the Gulf of Mexico the tropics remain quiet for now. Check back daily for your next update from Ralph's Tropical Weather.
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
CINDY UPDATE JUNE 21, 2017 11:19 AM EDT
000 WTNT33 KNHC 211446 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 ...CINDY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 92.6W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued north and east of the mouth of the Mississippi River, including Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Cindy is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest and then toward the north is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late today or tonight, and move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on Thursday. Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the north and east of the center. The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and eastern Texas through Thursday. Rainfall should spread northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area today through Thursday. STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight from the western Florida Panhandle across southwest Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tuesday, June 20, 2017
CINDY UPDATE JUNE 20, 2017 0522
000 WTNT33 KNHC 202034 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 ...CINDY MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF... ...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 90.6W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to San Luis Pass, Texas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 90.6 West. Cindy has been nearly stationary for the past several hours, but a northwestward motion is expected to resume tonight and continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and then toward the north is expected Wednesday night and early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late Wednesday and Wednesday night, and move inland over southeastern Texas on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center, mainly to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later today and spread westward within the warning area through early Thursday. STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is possible along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST
Today June 20, 2017
Partly cloudy with isolated showers during the day: Highs
around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East
southeast wind 6 to 16 MPH, gusting to 21 MPH. Chance
of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy with scattered showers during the night: Lows
around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East
southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Wednesday Jun 21
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat
index around 97°F. Southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:
Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 93°F.
Southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Thursday Jun 22
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs
around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. East
southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows
around 79°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday Jun 23
Isolated Storms Day:
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms. Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 14 MPH.
Chance of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows
around 79°F. East wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday Jun 24
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs
around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. East
southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows
around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East wind
to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday Jun 25
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs
around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East
southeast wind to 13 MPH.
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows
around 79°F. East wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday Jun 26
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs
around 88°F. Heat index around 97°F. Southeast
wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.
FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR ARE COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA
GULF SYSTEM UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CINDY
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CINDY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...NHC
SATELLITE REVIEW OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND REVIEW OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (CINDY)
I WANTED TO SEE WHY THERE IS NO CINDY THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WHY NO UPGRADE WITH WIND GUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTER OVER 50 MPH.
WELL NOT ONLY DOES THIS SYSTEM HAVE AN EXPOSED CENTER OF CIRCULATION BUT IT HAS DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS IS DRYING UP ANY CONVECTION (THUNDERSTORMS) TRYING TO RAP AROUND THE SMALL CIRCULATION CIRCLED ON THESE SATELLITE ANIMATIONS. SO UNTIL THEN GUSTY WINDS OFF SHORE AND PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION.
IS THERE STILL A CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO CINDY? THAT WOULD ALL DEPEND ON THE DRY AIR AND AS THREE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THE CLOCK KEEPS TICKING AND TIME COULD RUN OUT. MY ANIMATED GRAPHICS SHOWS THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELD FADING OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.
ALTHOUGH I HAVE SEEN DISORGANIZED SYSTEM REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SO IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...RTW
TROPICAL UPDATE FOR BRET AND TPC THREE (CINDY) JUNE 20, 2017 11:44 AM EDT
000 WTNT42 KNHC 201433 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017 The cloud pattern associated with Bret is becoming somewhat elongated due to southerly wind shear, and consequently, T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased a little bit. However, Bret produced sustained surface winds of 40 kt when it passed south of Grenada several hours ago. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt in this advisory, but these winds are occuring only to the north of the center. The intensity forecast remains unchanged, and the cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves toward a hostile environment of strong southerly shear caused by an upper-trough in the central Caribbean Sea. Bret will most likely degenerate into a low or an open trough in a day or so, if not sooner. This is consistent with most of the dynamical models. Although the center is difficult to locate, the best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 18 kt. The cyclone is well embedded within the easterly flow around the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and Bret will likely continue on this same general motion until dissipation. This forecast in the middle of the guidance envelope, and is consistent with the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 11.6N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 12.4N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 13.2N 70.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 14.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 14.4N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
TROPICAL STORM BRET
000 WTNT43 KNHC 201436 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the circulation of the low has become better organized since yesterday, but still lacks a well-defined center. The central pressure appears to have fallen to around 999 mb based on observations from NOAA buoy 42001, and some deep convection has begun developing a little closer to the low's circulation center. For now the system is being maintained as a potential tropical cyclone, however, the system could be classified as a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today. The current intensity is maintained at 35 kt based largely on continuity pending an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into the system later this morning. Only limited strengthening is forecast before the system moves inland due to the strong vertical shear over the cyclone caused by an upper-level low centered off the Texas coast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the intensity consensus aid. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 320/09 as the there are still multiple low-level cloud swirls circulating around a mean center, and some erratic motion is still possible until a better-defined center forms. However, the system should be steered generally northwestward over the next 36 hours or so as it interacts with the aforementioned upper-level low and then turns more north-northwestward by 48 hours as the system begins to recurve around the mid-level ridge to the east. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one in the short range, and shows the system moving inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas by 48 hours. After that time, the system should recurve into the mid-latitude flow and accelerate northward and northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley and into the southern and central Appalachians on days 3 and 4 before dissipating. The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast. Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 25.9N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 21/0000Z 26.7N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 21/1200Z 27.4N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 28.6N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 30.1N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1200Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/1200Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (CINDY)
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island to the Mouth of the Pearl River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of High Island to San Luis Pass
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