000 WTNT35 KNHC 172100 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017 500 PM AST Mon Jul 17 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLAND... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 52.6W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM E OF TRINIDAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Grenada. The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados and for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Lucia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grenada A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests in Trinidad and Tobago, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao should monitor the progress of Don. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 52.6 West. Don is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, with a gradual increase in forward speed. On the forecast track the center of Don will move through the Windward Islands late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area Tuesday and Tuesday night. RAINFALL: Don is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Windward Islands through Wednesday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Monday, July 17, 2017
TROPICAL STORM DON JULY 17, 2017 0500 PM EDT
NHC INITIATING PUBLIC ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM DON AT 0500 PM EDT
NHC will be initiating advisories at 5 PM AST on Tropical Storm Don, located east of the Windward Islands.
18z MODEL RUN FOR STORM INVEST 95L JULY 17, 2017 0359 PM EDT
Invest 95L is still encountering wind shear and Sahara dust and dry air. The convection (thunderstorms) associated with this system is minimal at this time. This system will be affecting the Windward Islands tomorrow evening.
As for the other system behind 95L it is also experiencing some wind shear and Sahara dust and dry air. So far this system looks to be an Atlantic system with no landfall.
RTW
As for the other system behind 95L it is also experiencing some wind shear and Sahara dust and dry air. So far this system looks to be an Atlantic system with no landfall.
RTW
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 17, 2017 1123 AM EDT
Other than the two Storm Investigation over the Central Atlantic the tropics remain quiet for now.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
12z MODEL RUN FOR INVEST 95L JULY 17, 2017 0951 AM EDT
Invest 95L still has a nice circulation but this morning it seems to be encountering some wind shear and dry Sahara dust and air. It is noticeable on enhanced IR, water vapor and visible satellite. You can see feathering of the clouds the cold cloud tops warming and thunderstorm activity has diminished some. This system now has a Medium chance 50% within 48hrs. and a Med chance 50% within 5-days.
There is another system that I circled yesterday that NHC is now also monitoring that has a Low chance 20% within 48 hrs. and a Low chance 30% within 5-days. This system is right behind Inest 95L.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
There is another system that I circled yesterday that NHC is now also monitoring that has a Low chance 20% within 48 hrs. and a Low chance 30% within 5-days. This system is right behind Inest 95L.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Sunday, July 16, 2017
00z MODEL RUN FOR STORM INVEST 95L JULY 16, 2017 0941 PM EDT
Invest 95L getting better organized as it tracks westward. Lesser Antilles should keep a close watch on this system.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 16, 2017 0900 PM EDT
There are four tropical waves and so far the only one I am monitoring closely other than INVEST 95L. Is a new wave near between 30°-40° West. Models are suggesting development. If it does develop it will more than likely be a threat to the shipping lanes and not land. I will keep you posted.
Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected for a day or two.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected for a day or two.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
STORM INVSTIGATION 95L UPDATE JULY 16, 2017 0742 PM EDT
I have posted this new INVEST 95L model run and most keep this system in the Caribbean. So far this system is a threat for the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean.
I will keep you posted during this week.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
I will keep you posted during this week.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 16, 2017 0131 AM EDT
Well we are watching an area of showers storm near 40°-42° West that some of the models are suggesting some development but short lived as it tracks into the East Caribbean. I will keep you posted.
Else where the tropics remains quiet.
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