...HURRICANE GERT NOW A CAT 2 AS IT RACES OUT TO SEA...0458 PM EDT AUG 16, 2017

000
WTNT33 KNHC 162032
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gert Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017
500 PM AST Wed Aug 16 2017

...GERT BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.7N 62.4W
ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert was located
near latitude 38.7 North, longitude 62.4 West.  Gert is moving
quickly toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h).  An even faster
motion toward the east-northeast is expected through Thursday,
followed by some deceleration and a turn toward the northeast
Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is expected through
tonight, but weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday.  Gert
should become an extratropical low by early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Gert will spread northward along the
east coast of the United States from Virginia northward to
New England and Atlantic Canada during the next day or two.
Swells are also expected to continue to affect Bermuda through
tonight.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER RTW

TRACKING THE TROPICS 0415 PM EDT AUG 16, 2017

RTW: Review of the Tropics

1. A new Storm INVEST has moved off the southwest African coast that will be monitored for development during next week.

2. INVEST 92L still tracking behind 91L and still has a potential for tropical cyclone formation in the coming days and now has a medium chance for development 40% within 48 hrs. and medium chance 50% within the next 5-days. NOTE IF THIS SYSTEM HOLDS TOGETHER AND DEVELOPS FURTHER THE U.S. EAST COAST HAS TO MONITOR THIS ONE CLOSELY!...RTW

3. INVEST 91L is being monitored for tropical cyclone formation and now also has a medium chance for development 40% within 48 hrs. and medium chance 50% within the next 5-days....RTW

4. Showers and storms developing over the northern Leeward Islands and east Caribbean are mainly associated with the interaction between a tropical wave and a Middle to Upper Level Low over Dominican Republic that is tracking westward.  There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW

5.  For Hurricane GERT advisories click here>> The National Hurricane Center

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

 

 

GERT AND THE STORM INVEST OVER THE ATLANTIC 1217 PM EDT AUG 16, 2017

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather

1. A new Storm INVEST has moved off the southwest African coast that will be monitored for development during next week.

2. INVEST 92L still tracking behind 91L and still has a potential for tropical cyclone formation in the coming days.

3. INVEST 91L is being monitored for tropical cyclone formation and more than likely will develop when it reaches the eastern and central Caribbean...RTW

4.  For Hurricane GERT advisories click here>> The National Hurricane Center
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

STORM INVEST 91L

STORM INVEST 92L

HURRICANE GERT UPDATE AND INVEST 91L AND 92L 0452 PM EDT AUG 15, 2017

000
WTNT33 KNHC 152033
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gert Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

...GERT A LITTLE STRONGER AND MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 71.2W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert was located
near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 71.2 West.  Gert is moving
toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and it is
expected to accelerate northeastward over the northwestern Atlantic
Ocean during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is expected
during the next day or so.  Weakening should begin by Thursday when
Gert moves over colder water.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Gert will spread northward along the
east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward to
Long Island during the next couple of days, with the first impacts
expected tonight.  Swells are also expected to affect Bermuda
during the next couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg 

TRACKING THE TROPICS 0213 PM EDT AUG 15, 2017

PLEASE NOTE THAT I AM STILL LIMITED TO WHAT SITES I CAN OPEN HERE AT WORK.  I AM HAVING PROBLEMS OPENING THE FTP SITE WHERE THE GUIDANCE MODEL DATA IS LOCATED SO I CAN DOWNLOAD THE DATA PACKAGE INTO MY SOFTWARE AND ADD THE SPAGHETTI MODELS TO THE MAP.  SO FOR NOW I WILL USE A THIRD PARTY MODEL MAP.  ONCE  AGAIN I APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

RTW

 RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather

1. Monitoring waves over the west African continent that have the potential for tropical cyclone formation as they emerge off the coast.

2. INVEST 92L trailing behind 91L and this system also has the potential for development as it track west-northwest across the Atlantic.  This system may take a higher latitude than 91L becuase it seems to be tracking toward the west-northwest early.  If it were going to follow 91L into the Caribbean it would have to track westward.

3. INVEST 91L is being monitored for tropical cyclone formation...RTW

4.  For Hurricane GERT advisories click here>> The National Hurricane Center
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

INTERNET PROBLEMS AT WORK IS PREVENTING ME FROM UPDATING AT TIME 1201 PM EDT 08/15/17

JUST A HEADS UP IF YOU DON'T SEE MANY UPDATES TO MY WEBSITE AND HERE ON BLOG.  THERE SEEMS TO BE A PROBLEM WITH THE WIFI HERE AT WORK SO I AM UNABLE TO LOAD CERTAIN PAGES LIKE MY SITE BUILDER AND FTP SITE FOR MODEL DATA.  SO IF YOU NOTICE AN ABSENCE OF POST ITS NOT ME BUT THE INTERNET PREVENTING ME FROM GETTING THE INFO OUT TO YOU. I APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE THIS IS OUT OF MY CONTROL.

RTW

HURRICANE GERT UPDATE 1100 AM EDT 08/15/17

000
WTNT33 KNHC 151433
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gert Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

...GERT BEGINS ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 72.0W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert was located
near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 72.0 West.  Gert is moving
toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A gradual turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
through the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  The hurricane is forecast to become a little stronger during
the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Gert will spread northward along the
east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward to
Long Island during the next couple of days.  Swells are also
expected to affect Bermuda during the next couple of days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky