HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE 11 PM EDT SEPT 1, 2017

...IRMA FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY BUT STILL A POWERFUL HURRICANE...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 020242
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017

...IRMA FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY BUT STILL A POWERFUL HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 40.5W
ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 40.5 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn toward the west-southwest
is expected on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are
possible during the next few days, but Irma is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky 

00z MODEL RUN 0927 PM EDT SEPT 1, 2017

Not much change in this model run.  Air Force Recon have flight scheduled for this weekend.  May be the models will cluster together a bit tighter and give us a better idea of where this dangerous storm is headed...RTW

 

IRMA STRONGER AS IT TRACK MORE WEST 0507 PM EDT SEPT 1, 2017

...IRMA TURNS WESTWARD WITH 120-MPH WINDS...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 012049
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017

...IRMA TURNS WESTWARD WITH 120-MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 39.1W
ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 39.1 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward the west-southwest
is expected tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are
possible during the next few days, but Irma is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake 

18z MODEL RUN FORECAST GUIDANCE AND INTENSITY MODEL 0351 PM EDT SEPT 1, 2017

Guidance models have shifted a tad toward the left of previous model run.  This flip flopping back and forth will happen many times more before we can stat getting tighter and more persistent run.  Keep monitoring NHC updates and be ready in case this storm heads your way.  Still to far and very uncertain to where it will go....RTW

Intensity model still holding this storm as a cat 4 and I we can't rule out a cat 5...RTW

FOOD FOR THOUGHT!

Bryan Norcross‏ @TWCBryan 16h16 hours ago

All of the hurricanes within 75 mi of the NHC 5-day position. The purple ones are Cat 4s: Donna, 1947 Ft. Lauderdale/NOLA, & 1928 Okeechobee

IRMA 11 AM EDY SEPT 1, 2017 PUBLIC ADVISORY AND FROECAST MAPS

...IRMA FORECAST TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR DAYS...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 011449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017

...IRMA FORECAST TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 37.8W
ABOUT 1580 MI...2540 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 37.8 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward the west is
expected by tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are possible during
the next few days, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

12z MODEL RUN SEEMS TO BE TRENDING NORTHWARD WHILE NHC FORECAST TRACK LEFT OF THE OTHER MODELS

I not going to sit here and speculate where IRMA will end up because its still to far out at sea and there are to many uncertainties.  We need to wait until Monday to get a better idea of where this storm may head.  As it is now high pressure continues to steer this system west-northwest.

Relax and just think over what you need in your kits, and go over your prep plan with the family in the event a hurricane strikes your area...RTW

IRMA PUBLIC ADVISORY AND FORECAST MAPS 1051 PM EDT AUG 31, 2017

...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF IRMA ENDS FOR NOW...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 010239
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF IRMA ENDS FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 35.6W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 35.6 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn toward the west
is expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest
on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are
possible during the next several days, but Irma is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

00z MODEL RUN FOR IRMA 0922 PM EDT AUG 31, 2017

We will continued to monitor this dangerous storm as it tracks toward the west-northwest.  Here are the latest model guidance and intensity model.  Note that the intensity  models no longer suggest a Cat five in this 00z model run.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

IRMA RAPIDLY INTESIFYING COULD BE THE FIRST CAT FIVE OF THE 2017 HURRICANE SEASON 5 PM EDT AUG 31, 2017

000
WTNT31 KNHC 312031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 34.8W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1780 MI...2865 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 34.8 West.  Irma is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  This motion is
expected to continue today, followed by a westward turn on Saturday,
and a west-southwestward motion by Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Fluctuations in strength,
both up and down, are possible, but Irma is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane for several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

18z MODEL GUIDANCE AND INTESITY MODEL 0302 PM EDT AUG 31, 2017

I STILL SEE THE SAME TREND WITH THE MODELS.  THAT UPWARD SLOPE THAT MOST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING IS PROBABLY RELATED TO A STRONG LOW PART OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT.  THIS IS WHAT USE TO BE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 / INVEST 92L.  THESE MODELS ARE PROBABLY DEPICTING A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH LEFT BEHIND BY THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS.

AS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY THE HURRICANE CENTER THEY MAY BE TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THAT A STRONG HURRICANE CAN TEND TO BUILD ITS OWN HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH SUCH AS ANDREW DID IN 1992.  THIS WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THIS SYSTEM AT THAT TIME.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND 5-DAYS AND THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP ANYWHERE. 

INTEREST IN THE LESSER ANTILLES/ NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR IRMA.

INTENSITY MODELS ARE MOST SAYING A STRONG CAT 4 HURRICANE BUT 1 MODEL IS NOW SUGGESTING A RARE CAT 5.

STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST ON IRMA...RTW

IRMA NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY

bnorcross‏ @bnorcross 1h1 hour ago

Yes… thought the storms that went within 65 nmi of the 5-day position include Donna, 1915 Galveston, and 1928 monsters.

IRMA 11 AM EDT AUG 31, 2017 PUBLIC ADVISORY AND FORCAST MAPS

...HURRICANE IRMA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 311448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...HURRICANE IRMA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 33.8W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1845 MI...2975 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 33.8 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This general motion is
forecast through early Friday, followed by a generally westward
motion on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Irma is forecast to become a major hurricane by
tonight and is expected to be an extremely dangerous hurricane for
the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake