Sunday, September 24, 2017

CHANGES TO TRACKING MAP FOR BETTER VISUALS

I thought you might like some changes I made to the tracking map and the forecast track storm symbols which you will see tomorrow when I post. I was able to make the storm symbols match the color of the category. I think that will make it easier to see what category the storm will be as it gets closer to a location of interest. I hope you all like it plus I made the tropical depression wind field wind a shade darker green instead of that light mint color green, it makes it easier on the eyes to see the storm wind fields radius. I also fixed the country outline to show through wind field as the storm moves over the land area. I noticed that Florida shows the outline of the state zoom in so I fixed it so you can see land outline over wind field colors as I zoom out the map. I played with some of the layers and I like what I see. Hope you all like some of the changes to the tracking map...RTW
 IRMA EXAMPLE 1
MARIA EXAMPLE 2
 IRMA AND MARIA WITHOUT WIND FIELD RADIUS EXAMPLE 3


Saturday, September 23, 2017

MARIA 1100 PM EDT 09/23/17 UPDATE

...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 115 MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA... 

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 115 MPH WINDS...
...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 72.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor
the progress of Maria.  Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for a portion of the coast on Sunday.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Maria was
located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 72.5 West. Maria is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast
track, the core of Maria will be moving well east of the United
States southeast coast during the next 2 days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km). NOAA buoy 41047 located north of Maria recently reported a
sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) with a gust of 75 mph (122 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter plane was 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.  Swells also
continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern
coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila




 

Friday, September 22, 2017

MARIA UPDATE 0500 PM EDT 9/22/2017

...MARIA PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...


000
WTNT35 KNHC 222040
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...MARIA PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 71.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM ESE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has changed the Hurricane Warning for
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas to a
Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Maria.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 71.4 West.  Maria is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Saturday.  A turn toward the
north is forecast by Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  A gradual weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas through
tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
portions of the central Bahamas tonight.

STORM SURGE:  Water levels in the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands will subside through tonight as Maria
moves away from those islands.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Saturday:

Turks and Caicos...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Puerto Rico...additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated maximum storm total
amounts 40 inches
Mayaguana, southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches
Inagua Islands and Crooked Island, Bahamas...2 to 6 inches
Rest of eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches

Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, portions of the southeastern United
States coast, and Bermuda.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg 
 




 

LATEST MAJOR STORM TRACK THAT AFFECTED LAND

The latest tracks of Harvey, Irma and Maria.  I will update Maria's end track when the storm finally disspates.


MARIA 11 AM EDT UPDATE 9/22/2017

...MARIA STILL PRODUCING 125-MPH WINDS AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...MARIA STILL PRODUCING 125-MPH WINDS AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 71.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued all
warnings for the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Maria.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 71.0 West.  Maria is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward
the north by late Saturday.  On the forecast track, Maria's core
will move away from the Turks and Caicos Islands today, and pass
northeast and east of the Bahamas through Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  A gradual weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance
aircraft is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring over
portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas and will continue through tonight.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the central Bahamas beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet
above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Saturday:

Turks and Caicos...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Puerto Rico...additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum storm
total amounts 40 inches
Eastern Dominican Republic...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated
storm total amounts 20 inches
Western Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...additional 3 to 6
inches
Mayaguana, southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches
Inagua Islands and Crooked Island, Bahamas...2 to 6 inches
Rest of eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches

Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These swells will reach portions
of the United States southeastern coast today and Bermuda tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



 

Thursday, September 21, 2017

MARIA 11 PM UPDATE 9/21/2017...CORRECTION 1115 PM EDT TO TITLE AND ADVISORY

...MARIA IS NOT IN A HURRY AND IS TAKING ITS TIME TO APPROACH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND DANGEROUS HIGH WAVES CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

...MARIA IS NOT IN A HURRY AND IS TAKING ITS TIME TO APPROACH THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND DANGEROUS HIGH WAVES CONTINUE ALONG THE
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 70.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NNE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 70.2 West. Maria is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) but a motion toward
the north-northwest is anticipated for Friday and Saturday.
On the forecast track, Maria's eye will gradually move away from the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic and then move near or just
east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during Friday and Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a
reconnaissance aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions continue across
portions of the Dominican Republic, but should begin to subside
during the next several hours.  Hurricane conditions are expected in
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas soon and
will continue through Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the central Bahamas beginning late Friday.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the
Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern
coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal
tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Saturday:

Puerto Rico...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total
amounts 40 inches
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and
Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas...4 to
8 inches
Northern Haiti...4 to 8 inches

Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.  These swells will
reach the remainder of the Bahamas soon and should reach portions
of the United States southeastern coast on Friday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



  

MARIA 05PM EDT UPDATE 9/21/2017

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 69.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning along the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic west of Cabo Engano.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 69.8 West.  Maria is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast early Friday, with that motion
continuing through Saturday.  On the forecast track, Maria's
eye will continue to pass offshore of the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic this evening, and then move near or just east of
the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas tonight and on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is expected during
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions continue across
portions of the Dominican Republic.  Tropical storm conditions are
beginning to spread across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas, and hurricane conditions are expected tonight
or early Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
central Bahamas beginning late Friday.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the
Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern
coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal
tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Saturday:

Puerto Rico...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total
amounts 40 inches
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and
Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas...4 to
8 inches
Northern Haiti...4 to 8 inches

Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.  These swells will
reach the remainder of the Bahamas tonight and should reach portions
of the United States southeastern coast on Friday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg 



 

SEA BREEZE STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS...

SEA BREEZE STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE.

Local Radar

LATEST MARIA UPDFATE 1100 AM EDT 9/21/2017

...MARIA HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES IN PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

...MARIA HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES IN PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 69.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning along the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic west of Andres/Boca Chica.  The Hurricane Watch from Isla
Saona to Cabo Engano has also been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Andres/Boca Chica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 69.1 West. Maria is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast early Friday, with that motion
continuing through early Saturday.  On the forecast track, Maria's
eye will continue to pass offshore of the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic today, and then move near or just east of the
Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas tonight and on
Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is possible during the
next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 960 mb (28.35
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions continue across
portions of the Dominican Republic.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas later today, with hurricane conditions
expected tonight or early Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the central Bahamas beginning late Friday.

Strong gusty winds are still possible today over portions of Puerto
Rico, especially in heavier rainbands that are moving over the
island.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the
Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern
coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal
tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Saturday:

Puerto Rico...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total
amounts 35 inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 2 to 4 inches.
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and
Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas...4 to
8 inches.
Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches.

Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.  These swells will
reach the remainder of the Bahamas today and tonight and should
reach portions of the United States southeastern coast on Friday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg 



 

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

MARIA FORECAST ADVISORY 0500 PM EDT 9/20/2017

...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... ...CONDITIONS NOW DETERIORATING OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

000
WTNT35 KNHC 202038
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...
...CONDITIONS NOW DETERIORATING OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 67.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NNW OF AGUADILLA PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the U.S. Virgin Islands has been
discontinued.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the
Hurricane Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.  For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 67.3 West.  Maria is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday night.
A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Friday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Maria will continue to move away from
the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico this evening.  The center will
then pass offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican
Republic tonight and Thursday and then move near the Turks and
Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas Thursday night and Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two,
and Maria could regain major hurricane status by Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
aircraft is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are still occurring
over portions of Puerto Rico.  Tropical storm conditions are
spreading across the warning areas in the Dominican Republic, and
hurricane conditions should start in the hurricane warning area
tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday,
with hurricane conditions starting Thursday night.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore wind over western portions of Puerto Rico, where the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal
tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Puerto Rico...20 to 25 inches, isolated 35 inches
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 3 to 5 inches
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and
southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches

Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.  These swells will begin
affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

WINDFIELD RADIUS IF IT IS STILL THIS SIZE AT 02PM EDT 9/20/17

THIS WIND FIELD IS FROM THE 11 AM EDT ADVISORY SO IF IT REMAINS THIS SIZE A DIAMETER THEN MINUS THE CAT 4-5 WINDS IT WOULD BE LOOKING LIKE THIS.
 GIVES YOU AN IDEA OF WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE ISLAND AND MOVING INTO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RTW


MARIA PRESENT POSITION AS OF 2PM EDT 9/20/17

Here is the past coordinate positions and present location of center of Maria as it entered the Atlantic.


12Z MODEL RUN FOR MARIA, AND THOSE OF YOU WORRIED ABOUT LEE

Maria's trackwell in agreement until the end of the forecast run where it could either turn back toward the U.S. or the northeast.  Florida has no worries!


Jose still meandering and model run a bit more complex not in well agreement all over the place but turning the cyclone back toward the U.S. mainland.


As for the remnants of Lee they seems to have a chance for development into a tropical cyclone but this system will not be a threat to land only to the shipping lanes.