ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 ...MARIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 73.1W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from north of Duck to the North Carolina/Virginia border has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward to Bogue Inlet and the Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued west of Bogue Inlet. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 73.1 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will pass east of the coast of North Carolina during the next couple of days. Reports from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm Tuesday night or Wednesday. Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). NOAA buoy 41002, located about 100 miles west-northwest of Maria's center, recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft observations is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer Banks...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through Wednesday. SURF: Large swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of the United States from Florida through southern New England. These swells are also affecting Bermuda, Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Monday, September 25, 2017
MARIA 05 PM EDT UPDATE 9/25/2017
...MARIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...
MARIA 11AM EDT 9/25/17 UPDATE
...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 ...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 72.9W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Duck to the North Carolina/Virginia border * North of Surf City to south of Cape Lookout A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor the progress of Maria. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 72.9 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move well east of the southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days and Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm Tuesday night. Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) primarily to the east of center and tropical- storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer Banks...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting portions of the coast of the southeastern United States and Bermuda and will be increasing along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts today. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
MARIA 0800 AM EDT UPDATE 9/25/2017
...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 37A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 ...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 73.0W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Duck to the North Carolina/Virginia border * North of Surf City to south of Cape Lookout A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor the progress of Maria. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 73.0 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move well east of the southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so. Reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Tuesday night. Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the east of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer Banks...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL...Maria is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting portions of the coast of the southeastern United States and Bermuda and will be increasing along the coasts of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England today. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, portions of the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Sunday, September 24, 2017
MARIA 11PM EDT UPDATE 9/24/17
...MARIA A LITTLE WEAKER...
000 WTNT35 KNHC 250232 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 ...MARIA A LITTLE WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 73.0W ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor the progress of Maria. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 73.0 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Maria will move well east of the southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer Banks...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Monday. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
RTW WEBPAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED 0139 PM EDT
I been neglecting full updates to the web page due to hurricane IRMA and MARIA. I was focusing my attention to updating the public and FB followers here are home. So I started a regular update of website once again. I apologize for the inconvenience this may have brought you but dealing with regular updates and preparations to protect life and property for landfall in Florida kept me real busy.
RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
MARIA 11 AM EDT UPDATE 9/24/17
...MARIA SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...
...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA...
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 ...MARIA SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 72.9W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor the progress of Maria. Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for a portion of the coast later today. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 72.9 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Monday night. On the forecast track, the core of Maria will be moving well east of the southeast coast of the United States during the day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours, but gradual weakening is expected by Monday night or Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast later today. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
GFS AND CMC MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT IN OCTOBER
Still far out in the future but it but we are now going into a new peak in October and the possibility of more storm development. Don't drop your guard just yet!
CHANGES TO TRACKING MAP FOR BETTER VISUALS
I thought you might like some changes I made to the tracking map and the
forecast track storm symbols which you will see tomorrow when I post. I
was able to make the storm symbols match the color of the category. I
think that will make it easier to see what category the storm will be as
it gets closer to a location of interest. I hope you all like it plus I
made the tropical depression wind field wind a shade darker green
instead of that light mint color green, it makes it easier on the eyes
to see the storm wind fields radius. I also fixed the country outline
to show through wind field as the storm moves over the land area. I
noticed that Florida shows the outline of the state zoom in so I fixed
it so you can see land outline over wind field colors as I zoom out the
map. I played with some of the layers and I like what I see. Hope you
all like some of the changes to the tracking map...RTW
IRMA EXAMPLE 1
MARIA EXAMPLE 2
IRMA AND MARIA WITHOUT WIND FIELD RADIUS EXAMPLE 3
Saturday, September 23, 2017
MARIA 1100 PM EDT 09/23/17 UPDATE
...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 115 MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA...
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 ...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 115 MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 72.5W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor the progress of Maria. Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for a portion of the coast on Sunday. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 72.5 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the core of Maria will be moving well east of the United States southeast coast during the next 2 days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). NOAA buoy 41047 located north of Maria recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) with a gust of 75 mph (122 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
Friday, September 22, 2017
MARIA UPDATE 0500 PM EDT 9/22/2017
...MARIA PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
000 WTNT35 KNHC 222040 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 ...MARIA PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 71.4W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM ESE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has changed the Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 71.4 West. Maria is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the north is forecast by Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the central Bahamas tonight. STORM SURGE: Water levels in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands will subside through tonight as Maria moves away from those islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Turks and Caicos...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches Puerto Rico...additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 40 inches Mayaguana, southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches Inagua Islands and Crooked Island, Bahamas...2 to 6 inches Rest of eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, portions of the southeastern United States coast, and Bermuda. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
LATEST MAJOR STORM TRACK THAT AFFECTED LAND
The latest tracks of Harvey, Irma and Maria. I will update Maria's end track when the storm finally disspates.
MARIA 11 AM EDT UPDATE 9/22/2017
...MARIA STILL PRODUCING 125-MPH WINDS AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 ...MARIA STILL PRODUCING 125-MPH WINDS AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 71.0W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued all warnings for the Dominican Republic. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 71.0 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north by late Saturday. On the forecast track, Maria's core will move away from the Turks and Caicos Islands today, and pass northeast and east of the Bahamas through Sunday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas and will continue through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas beginning tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Turks and Caicos...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches Puerto Rico...additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 40 inches Eastern Dominican Republic...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated storm total amounts 20 inches Western Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...additional 3 to 6 inches Mayaguana, southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches Inagua Islands and Crooked Island, Bahamas...2 to 6 inches Rest of eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells will reach portions of the United States southeastern coast today and Bermuda tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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