MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST

Today Sept 26

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 87°F. Heat index around 95°F. West wind 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:  Lows around 79°F. South wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Wednesday Sep 27

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 94°F. West northwest wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 78°F. South southwest wind to 7 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Thursday Sep 28

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 94°F. Northwest wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. Southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Friday Sep 29

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the day: Highs around 84°F. Heat index around 90°F. Southeast wind to 7 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the night: Lows around 77°F. South wind to 9 MPH, gusting to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Saturday Sep 30

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the day: Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 92°F. South wind to 10 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the night: Lows around 79°F. North northeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Sunday Oct 1

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind 8 to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 80°F. Heat index around 90°F. East wind to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Monday Oct 2

Mostly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind 11 to 17 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

 

HOW MUCH OF THE OUTER BANKS EXPERIENCES TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS?

THIS GRAPHICS SHOWS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BRUSHING THE OUTER BANKS AND MARIA TRACKS EAST OF THE BANKS.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1223 PM EDT 9/26/17

WILL BE MONITORING THE CARIBBEAN, GULF AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC EVEN THOUGH AFTER SEPTEMBER THE FOCUS IS  ON THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF, AND NOT SO MUCH THE ATLANTIC.  REASONING FOR THIS IS, BECAUSE A WEAK LA NINA HAS KICKED IN AND THE ATLANTIC WATER REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM AT THIS TIME.  THIS MAKES THE ATLANTIC CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.  THERE IS ANOTHER PEAK IN OCTOBER BEFORE IT BEGINS TO SETTLE DOWN.  BUT SEEING HOW MUCH ENERGY IS LEFT BEHIND WE COULD SEE A LATE BUSY ENDING TO THE 2017 SEASON.  BE HURRICANE READY! 
RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

MARIA 11 AM EDT UPDATE 09/26/17

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 73.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Ocracoke Inlet to Cape
Hatteras.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Hatteras

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to west of Ocracoke Inlet
* North of Cape Hatteras to Duck

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 73.1 West. Maria is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight.  A turn
toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Maria will pass east of the coast of
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.   Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm within the
next day or so.

Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). NOAA buoy 41025 located
about 15 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras recently reported a
sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a wind gust to 49 mph (80
km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area beginning this afternoon.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through
Wednesday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the
east coast of the United States.  These swells are also affecting
Bermuda, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown 

MARIA 05 PM EDT UPDATE 9/25/2017

...MARIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...MARIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 73.1W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from north of Duck to the North
Carolina/Virginia border has been changed to a Tropical Storm
Warning.  The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward to
Bogue Inlet and the Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued west
of Bogue Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 73.1 West.  Maria is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night.
A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Maria will pass east of the coast of
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

Reports from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm Tuesday night or
Wednesday.

Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). NOAA buoy 41002, located
about 100 miles west-northwest of Maria's center, recently reported
sustained winds of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h).


The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft
observations is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through
Wednesday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the
east coast of the United States from Florida through southern New
England.  These swells are also affecting Bermuda, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
the Bahamas.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

MARIA 11AM EDT 9/25/17 UPDATE

...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 72.9W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Duck to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* North of Surf City to south of Cape Lookout

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck

Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts
should monitor the progress of Maria.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
to 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 72.9 West. Maria is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Maria will move well east of the
southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days and Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm
Tuesday night.

Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 90 miles (150 km) primarily to the east of center and tropical-
storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area beginning Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through
Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting portions of the coast
of the southeastern United States and Bermuda and will be increasing
along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts today.
Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the northern coast of
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

MARIA 0800 AM EDT UPDATE 9/25/2017

...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 73.0W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Duck to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* North of Surf City to south of Cape Lookout

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck

Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts
should monitor the progress of Maria.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
to 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 73.0 West. Maria is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Maria will move well east of the
southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so.

Reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Maria is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Tuesday
night.

Maria is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the east of the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
warning area beginning Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL...Maria is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through
Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting portions of the
coast of the southeastern United States and Bermuda and will be
increasing along the coasts of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England today. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, portions
of the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office for more
information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown 

MARIA 11PM EDT UPDATE 9/24/17

...MARIA A LITTLE WEAKER... 

000
WTNT35 KNHC 250232
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...MARIA A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 73.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck

Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts
should monitor the progress of Maria.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 73.0 West.  Maria is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday.  On the
forecast track, the core of Maria will move well east of the
southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional slow weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Maria is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Monday.  Swells
also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the
northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
Bahamas.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

RTW WEBPAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED 0139 PM EDT

I been neglecting full updates to the web page due to hurricane IRMA and MARIA.  I was focusing  my attention to updating the public and FB followers here are home.  So I started a regular update of website once again.  I apologize for the inconvenience this may have brought you but dealing with regular updates and preparations to protect life and property for landfall in Florida kept me real busy.

RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

MARIA 11 AM EDT UPDATE 9/24/17

...MARIA SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA...

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...MARIA SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...
...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 72.9W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor
the progress of Maria.  Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for a portion of the coast later today.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 72.9 West.  Maria is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Monday night.  On
the forecast track, the core of Maria will be moving well east of
the southeast coast of the United States during the day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next
24 hours, but gradual weakening is expected by Monday night or
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast later today.  Swells also
continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern
coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown 

GFS AND CMC MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT IN OCTOBER

Still far out in the future but it but we are now going into a new peak in October and the possibility  of more storm development.  Don't drop your guard just yet!

CHANGES TO TRACKING MAP FOR BETTER VISUALS

I thought you might like some changes I made to the tracking map and the forecast track storm symbols which you will see tomorrow when I post. I was able to make the storm symbols match the color of the category. I think that will make it easier to see what category the storm will be as it gets closer to a location of interest. I hope you all like it plus I made the tropical depression wind field wind a shade darker green instead of that light mint color green, it makes it easier on the eyes to see the storm wind fields radius. I also fixed the country outline to show through wind field as the storm moves over the land area. I noticed that Florida shows the outline of the state zoom in so I fixed it so you can see land outline over wind field colors as I zoom out the map. I played with some of the layers and I like what I see. Hope you all like some of the changes to the tracking map...RTW

 IRMA EXAMPLE 1

MARIA EXAMPLE 2

 IRMA AND MARIA WITHOUT WIND FIELD RADIUS EXAMPLE 3

MARIA 1100 PM EDT 09/23/17 UPDATE

...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 115 MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA... 

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 115 MPH WINDS...
...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 72.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor
the progress of Maria.  Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for a portion of the coast on Sunday.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Maria was
located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 72.5 West. Maria is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast
track, the core of Maria will be moving well east of the United
States southeast coast during the next 2 days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km). NOAA buoy 41047 located north of Maria recently reported a
sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) with a gust of 75 mph (122 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter plane was 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.  Swells also
continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern
coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila