MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST

Tonight

Rain Showers Windy with rain showers likely. Lows around 79°F. Windy, with an east northeast wind to 24 MPH, gusting to 32 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Wednesday Oct 4

Day: Windy with rain showers likely. Highs around 83°F. Heat index around 88°F. Windy, with an east northeast wind to 23 MPH, gusting to 30 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows around 78°F. Windy, with a east northeast wind 17 to 22 MPH, gusting to 29 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Thursday Oct 5

Day: Mostly cloudy with showers. Highs around 83°F. Heat index around 89°F. East wind to 18 MPH, gusting to 24 MPH. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Night: Mostly cloudy with showers. Lows around 79°F. East wind 11 to 17 MPH, gusting to 22 MPH. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Friday Oct 6

Day: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 85°F. Heat index around 92°F. Southeast wind to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Saturday Oct 7

Day: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 94°F. South southeast wind to 19 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 80°F. Heat index around 87°F. South wind to 17 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Sunday Oct 8

Day: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 93°F. South wind to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 79°F. South wind to 13 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Monday Oct 9

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs around 87°F. Heat index around 93°F. South wind to 13 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 93°F. Southeast wind 10 to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

EYES ON THE TROPICS 0358 PM EDT 10/03/17

1. Storm Investigation 90L a broad area of low pressure in the southern Caribbean has the potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next few days.  This system has a Medium chance 40% within 48hrs and a Medium chance 60% within 5-days for become a depression or tropical storm as it track westward then north-northwest in the coming days.  This system could be a possible threat from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.  Stay tuned in the coming days for further updates
RTW

2.  A trough of low pressure over northern Cuba and the Bahamas will gradually track westward toward the Florida Peninsula and bring heavy rains and storms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds with the potential for localized flooding in those flood prone areas.  Development of this system is Low 10% within 48hrs and 10% within the next 5-days.  This system will open a passage way for invest 90L to move into in the coming week.
RTW

3.  Elsewhere I am monitoring a couple of Atlantic waves that have some potential for development as well as they track west to a west-northwest.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1111AM EDT 10/3/2017

TROPICS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP AGAIN IN THE COMING WEEKS AND THE FIRST AREA TO WATCH IS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.  I WILL ALSO A FEW WAVES IN THE ATLANTIC AS WELL.  FOR NOW I WILL BE POSTING ONE TROPICAL UPDATE DAILY UNLESS SOMETHING DEVELOPS EARLIER. 
RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST

CAUTION GUSTY WINDS COULD BRING DOWN ALREADY DAMAGED TREE LIMBS STILL HANGING LOOSELY FROM LARGE TREES AFTER IRMA.  SOME POWER LINES THAT MAY HAVE NOT BEEN BROKEN LOOSE BUT SLIGHTLY DAMAGED COULD ALSO SPARK AND CAUSE PROBLEMS IN SOME AREAS.  IF YOU POWER FAILURES DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS CALL FPL IMMEDIATELY.  I CHECKED THE OUTAGE MAP AND THERE ARE SOME SPORADIC OUTAGES THAT ARE BEING REPORTED IN MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD.

Today

Day: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 84°F. Heat index around 93°F. Windy, with a east wind 14 to 24 MPH, gusting to 31 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 80°F. Heat index around 88°F. Windy, with a east northeast wind 19 to 25 MPH, gusting to 33 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Precipitation amounts less than one tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday Oct 3

Day: Windy with rain showers likely. Highs around 85°F. Heat index around 93°F. Windy, with a east wind 19 to 26 MPH, gusting to 36 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. New precipitation amounts from one quarter to one half of an inch possible.

Night: Windy with rain showers likely. Lows around 79°F. Windy, with an east northeast wind to 25 MPH, gusting to 32 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. New precipitation amounts from one half to three quarters of an inch possible.

Wednesday Oct 4

Day: Windy with rain showers likely. Highs around 83°F. Heat index around 89°F. Windy, with an east northeast wind 21 to 26 MPH, gusting to 34 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Night: Windy with rain showers likely. Lows around 77°F. Windy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 22 MPH, gusting to 28 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Thursday Oct 5

Day: Cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 83°F. Heat index around 90°F. East northeast wind to 17 MPH, gusting to 23 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 78°F. East wind to 14 MPH, gusting to 32 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Friday Oct 6

Day: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 85°F. Heat index around 93°F. Southeast wind to 12 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 79°F. Southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Saturday Oct 7

Day: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 95°F. South southeast wind to 12 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 80°F. Heat index around 88°F. Southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Sunday Oct 8

Day: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 95°F. South wind to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1105 AM EDT OCT 2, 2017

It feels awesome to have a break from the barrage of hurricanes we all experienced in September 2017 specially those who lost homes and suffered devastation from Harvey, Irma and Maria.  I will continued to pray for those affected.

I will be monitoring a few waves in the Atlantic and the northwest Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation in the coming day and weeks.  I will post one tropical update daily unless I see something that bares close watching.
RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

STORM INVEST 99L 1100 PM EDT 9/29/17

000
ABNT20 KNHC 292324
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Maria, located over the Atlantic Ocean several hundred
miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and on Tropical Storm Lee,
located over the north Atlantic Ocean about 1000 miles
west-northwest of the Azores.

A weak low pressure area over the southern Florida Peninsula is
interacting with an upper-level low to produce a large but
disorganized area of cloudiness and showers extending from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea northward through the Florida peninsula.
Environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive for some
additional development before the upper-level winds become
unfavorable early next week.  Regardless of development, this system
is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of western
Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula during the next
several days while the system moves northwestward to northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave is producing cloudiness and showers over the
northeastern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic waters.
There are no signs of organization and upper-level winds are not
currently conducive for development.  However, conditions could
become a little more favorable for some development next week while
the wave moves toward the west-northwest.  This system is expected
to bring locally heavy rains over the northern Leeward Islands,
including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

MONITORING TWO AREA IN THE TROPICS 1212 PM EDT 9/29/17

1. I am still monitoring Storm Investigation 99L off the Southwest Florida Coast .  Some development is possible as it track along the coast but so far so far it does look like it will be a strong system.  looking at a depression may be a tropical storm at this time.  Let's not drop our guard thou since things could change.

2.  Also monitoring a strong wave east of the Lesser Antilles that is interacting with an upper level low southwest of Puerto Rico.  This system is forecast to track northwest over Puerto Rico and bring unwanted heavy rains to the island.  This system will also be monitored for tropical cyclone formation.  It has a 0% chance within the next 48 hrs and a 20% chance within 5 days.
RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291145
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Maria, located over the western Atlantic Ocean a few hundred
miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and on Hurricane Lee, located
over the north Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles south-southeast
of Newfoundland.

A broad trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level
low is producing a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and
showers. This activity extends from the northwestern Caribbean
Sea northward across western Cuba to the southern Florida peninsula.
This trough has moved slowly westward since yesterday, and a weak
low is now likely to form from this system near the west coast of
Florida during the weekend.  Environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for some development of the low before the upper-level
winds become less favorable early next week. Regardless of
development, this system is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall
over portions of central and western Cuba, the Florida Keys, the
Florida peninsula during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave is producing cloudiness and showers over the
northeastern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic waters.
Although there are no signs of organization and surface pressures
are not falling at this time, conditions could become a little more
favorable for some development next week while the system moves
toward the west-northwest.  This system is expected to bring
locally heavy rains over the northern Leeward Islands, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


$$
Forecaster Avila

 

STORM INVEST 99L 1045 PM EDT 9/28/17

000
ABNT20 KNHC 282326
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Maria, located over the western Atlantic Ocean a few hundred
miles west-northwest of Bermuda, and on Hurricane Lee, located over
the central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-northeast of
Bermuda.

A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea northward across Cuba to the Florida
Straits is associated with a broad surface trough interacting with
an upper-level low.  A weak area of low pressure is likely to form
from this weather system near the Florida Straits on Friday, and it
is forecast to move northward near the east coast of the Florida
Peninsula through Saturday.  Environmental conditions appear
to be conducive for some development during the next couple of days,
before upper-level winds become less favorable on Sunday.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of central and western Cuba,
the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and the northwestern
Bahamas during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

MONITORING INVEST 99L NORTH OF THE CUBAN COAST

 STORM INVESTIGATION 99L

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CUBAN COAST THAT MOVED NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP IT WILL DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS OVER CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOME OF THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE A FLOOD PROBLEM FOR THE STATE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWARD.  STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES  ON THIS SYSTEM.


ELSEWHERE WE HAVE MARIA FINALLY LEAVING AND LEE REMAINS A NO THREAT TO LAND HURRICANE.

WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO IN OCTOBER FOR UNWELCOME TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1216 PM EDT 09/28/17

STILL MONITORING THE CARIBBEAN FOR WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.  I SAY WEAK DEVELOPMENT BUT IT COULD BE A GUSTY AND WET DISTURBANCE THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PORTION OF FLORIDA. 

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

BRYAN NORCROSS UPDATE ON MARIA AND CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE

Bryan Norcross added 2 new photos.

Thursday update on TROPICAL STORM MARIA and FUTURE TROPICS: Maria is moving away from the U.S. East Coast. The high winds have already moved offshore, but the ocean will remain agitated and dangerous as strong swells continue to impact the coast. The elevated water levels around the Outer Banks will slowly decrease, but some minor sound-side flooding could still occur today at high tide. Maria is forecast to be a memory by the end of the weekend.
Cooler air will move in as Maria moves out, though it’s not the end of the oddly warm fall in the East. Another round of unusually warm weather is coming.

Over the weekend, we’ll keep an eye on the waters around Florida. A cold front moving south may meet up with a weak disturbance in the tropics to form a low-pressure system with some tropical-development potential. The odds are not high that a significant storm would form, but it’s not impossible that we get a rainy, gusty disturbance.

In the long range, another unusually strong and hot high-pressure system is forecast to cover a good part of the Midwest, East, and Southeast. If the forecast is right, on the south side of the heat bubble, a noticeably strong, persistent east wind will set up over Florida, and south of that the atmospheric pattern could be favorable for tropical development. That would be at the end of next week.
Stay tuned. Hurricane season isn’t over yet.