Wednesday, October 4, 2017
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 0500 PM EDT 10/04/17
000 WTNT31 KNHC 042049 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 82.5W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression. A hurricane watch could be issued for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 82.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue tonight. On the forecast track, the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early Thursday, move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late Thursday, and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm overnight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches Honduras...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into Honduras late Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 1149 AM
000 WTNT31 KNHC 041438 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 ...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.2N 81.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Nicaragua from Sandy Bay Sirpi northward to the Honduras border. The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla eastward to the border with Nicaragua. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 81.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early Thursday, move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late Thursday, and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 15 to 20 inches are expected across portions of Nicaragua, with isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches possible. Across Costa Rica and Panama, 5 to 10 inches of rain are expected, with isolated maximum totals of around 20 inches possible. Across Honduras, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are expected. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into Honduras late Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
TROPICAL OUTLOOK 1145 PM EDT 10/03/17
2. A trough of low pressure near northern Cuba and Southeast Florida and the west Bahamas is producing wind gust up to tropical storm force 40-50 mph in some of the storm cells. Coastal flooding fast moving rains in squalls can be expected as they move on shore the Florida coast. Significant is not expected per NHC at this time.
Tuesday, October 3, 2017
MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST
Tonight
Rain Showers Windy with rain showers likely. Lows around
79°F. Windy, with an east northeast wind to 24 MPH, gusting to 32 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
Wednesday Oct 4
Day: Windy
with rain showers likely. Highs around 83°F. Heat index around 88°F. Windy,
with an east northeast wind to 23 MPH, gusting to 30 MPH.
Chance of precipitation 70
percent.
Night: Mostly
cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows around 78°F. Windy, with a east
northeast wind 17 to 22 MPH, gusting to 29 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
Thursday Oct 5
Day: Mostly
cloudy with showers. Highs around 83°F. Heat index around 89°F. East wind to 18
MPH, gusting to 24 MPH. Chance of precipitation 80
percent.
Night: Mostly
cloudy with showers. Lows around 79°F. East wind 11 to 17 MPH, gusting to 22
MPH. Chance of precipitation 80
percent.
Friday Oct 6
Day: Mostly
cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 85°F. Heat index around 92°F.
Southeast wind to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60
percent.
Night: Mostly
cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 16 MPH.
Chance of precipitation 50
percent.
Saturday Oct 7
Day: Mostly
cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 94°F. South
southeast wind to 19 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50
percent.
Night: Mostly
cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 80°F. Heat index around 87°F. South
wind to 17 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50
percent.
Sunday Oct 8
Day: Mostly
cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 93°F. South
wind to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60
percent.
Night: Mostly
cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 79°F. South wind to 13 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 50
percent.
Monday Oct 9
Day: Partly
cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs around 87°F. Heat index around 93°F.
South wind to 13 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40
percent.
EYES ON THE TROPICS 0358 PM EDT 10/03/17
1. Storm Investigation 90L a broad area of low pressure in the southern Caribbean has the potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next few days. This system has a Medium chance 40% within 48hrs and a Medium chance 60% within 5-days for become a depression or tropical storm as it track westward then north-northwest in the coming days. This system could be a possible threat from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Stay tuned in the coming days for further updates
RTW
2. A trough of low pressure over northern Cuba and the Bahamas will gradually track westward toward the Florida Peninsula and bring heavy rains and storms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds with the potential for localized flooding in those flood prone areas. Development of this system is Low 10% within 48hrs and 10% within the next 5-days. This system will open a passage way for invest 90L to move into in the coming week.
RTW
3. Elsewhere I am monitoring a couple of Atlantic waves that have some potential for development as well as they track west to a west-northwest.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1111AM EDT 10/3/2017
RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Monday, October 2, 2017
MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST
CAUTION GUSTY WINDS COULD BRING DOWN ALREADY DAMAGED TREE LIMBS STILL HANGING LOOSELY FROM LARGE TREES AFTER IRMA. SOME POWER LINES THAT MAY HAVE NOT BEEN BROKEN LOOSE BUT SLIGHTLY DAMAGED COULD ALSO SPARK AND CAUSE PROBLEMS IN SOME AREAS. IF YOU POWER FAILURES DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS CALL FPL IMMEDIATELY. I CHECKED THE OUTAGE MAP AND THERE ARE SOME SPORADIC OUTAGES THAT ARE BEING REPORTED IN MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD.
Today
Day: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around
84°F. Heat index around 93°F. Windy, with a east wind 14 to 24 MPH, gusting to 31 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50
percent.
Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around
80°F. Heat index around 88°F. Windy, with a east northeast wind 19 to 25 MPH,
gusting to 33 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Precipitation amounts less than one
tenth of an inch possible.
Tuesday Oct 3
Day: Windy with rain showers likely. Highs around 85°F. Heat
index around 93°F. Windy, with a east wind 19 to 26 MPH, gusting to 36 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70
percent. New precipitation amounts from one quarter to one half of an inch
possible.
Night: Windy with rain showers likely. Lows around 79°F.
Windy, with an east northeast wind to 25 MPH, gusting to 32
MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
New precipitation amounts from one half to three quarters of an inch possible.
Wednesday Oct 4
Day: Windy with rain showers likely. Highs around 83°F. Heat
index around 89°F. Windy, with an east northeast wind 21 to 26 MPH, gusting to 34 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70
percent.
Night: Windy with rain showers likely. Lows around 77°F.
Windy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 22 MPH, gusting to 28 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent.
Thursday Oct 5
Day: Cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 83°F. Heat
index around 90°F. East northeast wind to 17 MPH, gusting to 23 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent.
Night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 78°F.
East wind to 14 MPH, gusting to 32 MPH. Chance
of precipitation 70 percent.
Friday Oct 6
Day: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 85°F.
Heat index around 93°F. Southeast wind to 12 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
Night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 79°F.
Southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
Saturday Oct 7
Day: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 86°F.
Heat index around 95°F. South southeast wind to 12 MPH. Chance of precipitation
50 percent.
Night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 80°F.
Heat index around 88°F. Southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Sunday Oct 8
Day: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs
around 86°F. Heat index around 95°F. South wind to 15 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 50
percent.
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