MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST

Tonight Oct 22, 2017

Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 79°F. East wind 10 to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Monday Oct 23

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 93°F. East southeast wind 10 to 17 MPH, gusting to 22 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 77°F. Southeast wind 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Tuesday Oct 24

Day: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 85°F. Heat index around 92°F. South southeast wind 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 71°F. South southeast wind 7 to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Wednesday Oct 25

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 78°F. North northwest wind to 17 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 62°F. North northwest wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Thursday Oct 26

Day: Mostly sunny. Highs around 78°F. North wind to 13 MPH.

Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 71°F. Northeast wind to 12 MPH.

Friday Oct 27

Day: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 84°F. East northeast wind 10 to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 75°F. East wind to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Saturday Oct 28

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 84°F. East wind to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Night: Mostly cloudy with very heavy rain. Lows around 77°F. East wind 7 to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OCT 22, 2017 0343 PM EDT

I AM STILL MONITORING THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE COMING DAYS. 

THE NHC IS NOW MONITORING THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AND THEY ARE GIVING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM A 0% CHANCE WITHIN 48 HRS AND A 20% CHANCE WITHIN 5-DAYS.  STAY TUNED HERE FOR THE LATEST ON THIS FUTURE STORM SYSTEM.
RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

SUNDAY'S OCT 22, 2017 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

Hail Point®‏ @HailPoint 8

Tomorrow's Severe Thunderstorm Outlook. #Hail #PDR #Roofing #Insurance #HailPoint

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OCT 21, 2017 1134 PM EDT

THE TROPICS STILL REMAIN QUIET FOR NOW EVEN THOUGH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THAT REGION.  THIS ARE OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL BE MONITORED FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE COMING WEEK.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

CARIBBEAN SYSTEM SLOWLY TAKING SHAPE

Latest satellite shows a broad area of low pressure trying to get its act together.  I am not at home right now but I will update site later.

LATEST 12Z MODEL RUN STILL SHOWING SOMETHING COMING UP FROM CARIBBEAN

12Z GFS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORM BEING PULLED UP OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE CMC MODEL WHICH IS NOT A GOOD INTENSITY MODEL TENDS TO EXAGGERATE AND TRACKS A HURRICANE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. 

I LIKE THE CMC FOR MODEL FOR EARLY WARNING OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT, BUT IT IS NOT ONE OF THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS WHEN IT COMES TO INTENSITY OR GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER, SINCE WE ARE STILL IN HURRICANE SEASON I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

RTW

MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A DIP IN THE JET STREAM FOR THURSDAY!

MODELS ARE STILL HINTING THAT THERE WILL BE A DIP IN THE JET STREAM BY NEXT THURSDAY THAT COULD POSSIBLY USHER IN COOLER AIR SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THOSE OF YOUR THAT WANT SOME COOLER AIR CROSS YOUR FINGERS.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OCT 20, 2017 1021 AM EDT

TROPICS GIVING US A BREAK AS IT CHARGES UP TO RELEASE MORE ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY BY NEXT WEEK.  I WILL BE MONITORING THE SOUTH AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FOR HINTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

SOME MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAYBE A DEPRESSION TRACKING NORTH BETWEEN THE YUCATAN WESTERN CUBA AND MERGING WITH A FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS FLORIDA.  ANOTHER MODEL SUGGEST A TROPICAL STORM MAYBE A HURRICANE TRACKING NORTH OVER CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

I DO HAVE TO CAUTION YOU THOU!  MODEL FORECAST CHANGE EVERY RUN AND I ALWAYS LOOK FOR PERSISTENCE, HOWEVER AT TIMES IT TURNS OUT NOT BEING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.  BUT SINCE WE ARE STILL IN HURRICANE SEASON AND OCTOBER IS MOST DEFINITELY A MONTH TO WATCH IF YOU LIVE IN CUBA AND FLORIDA YOU NEED TO BE STORM READY.  SO CHECK BACK DAILY FOR UPDATES.
RTW 

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

CAUTION...THESE FORECAST ARE NOT WRITTEN IN STONE SO DON'T PANIC WITH THE ONE THAT SHOWS A STORM OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OCT 19, 2017 11:25 AM EDT

The tropics remain quiet at this time but there are some models that are still hinting on tropical development in the Caribbean by end of next week.  Stay tuned for later updates.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

MORE ON NEXT WEEK COLD WEATHER POSSIBILTIES

Eric Blake 🌀‏Verified account @EricBlake12

New ECMWF again showing 50s all over S #Florida next Thursday am- would be close to #Miami record of 55- probably too cold but I can dream.