MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST

Today Nov 1, 2017

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 68°F. North northeast wind to 7 MPH.

Thursday Nov 2

Day: Partly cloudy. Highs around 82°F. North northeast wind to 11 MPH.

Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 70°F. Northeast wind to 10 MPH.

Friday Nov 3

Day: Partly cloudy. Highs around 82°F. North northeast wind 6 to 14 MPH.

Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 72°F. North northeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Saturday Nov 4

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 82°F. North northeast wind 9 to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71°F. North northeast wind 7 to 12 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Sunday Nov 5

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 82°F. Northeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71°F. Northeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Monday Nov 6

Day: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 82°F. East northeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 72°F. East northeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Tuesday Nov 7

Day: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 82°F. Northeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

DAILY TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NOV 1, 2017 1018 AM EDT

The Tropics remain quiet as we begin the count down to the end of a busy hurricane season.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 And this is where major storms have formed in the past during the month of November.  Red dots mark the major storms.

ITS THAT TIME AGAIN TO SET CLOCK BACK AND HOUR THIS SUNDAY NOVEMBER 5

Its that time to remind you to set your clock back an hour this Sunday Nov 5, 2017!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OCT 31, 2017 1115 AM EDT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311107
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak, non-tropical area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
east-southeast of Bermuda is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly well to the northeast and southeast of the
low.  Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit
any subtropical or tropical cyclone development during the next
couple of days while the system meanders over the central Atlantic
Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. 

Forecaster Stewart

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OCT 30, 2017 1201 PM EDT

I WILL BE DOING TROPICAL UPDATES ONCE DAILY UNLESS A TROPICAL SYSTEM THREATENS LAND.

NHC IS MONITORING A DISTURBANCE NEAR 55-45° WEST WHICH HAS A LOW CHANCE 30% WITHIN 48HRS AND A MED CHANCE 40% WITHIN 5-DAYS.  NO THREAT TO LAND AT THIS TIME.

 http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

COOL START TO THE WEEK!

Cool start to the work week here in South Florida with temps in the 50's fall is officially here.  Temps rebounding at this time though we are back up to the 60s in Miami-Dade other Cities across the state a bit more chillier.

Next three days:

Today Oct 30, 2017

Day: Sunny. Highs around 71°F. North northwest wind to 11 MPH.

Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 59°F. North wind to 6 MPH.

Tuesday Oct 31

Day: Partly cloudy. Highs around 78°F. North wind to 9 MPH.

Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 66°F. Northeast wind to 8 MPH.

Wednesday Nov 1

Day: Partly cloudy. Highs around 82°F. North northwest wind to 10 MPH.

Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 69°F. East northeast wind to 7 MPH, gusting to 13 MPH.

PHILIPPE 11 AM EDT UPDATE OCT 29, 2017

...PHILIPPE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA DISCONTINUED...

000
WTNT33 KNHC 291435
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...PHILIPPE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST
AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 77.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM E OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Cuba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 77.5 West. Philippe is
moving toward the east-northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). A motion
toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected to begin
later this afternoon and continue through Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Philippe will continue to move quickly away
from the Florida east coast and the northwestern Bahamas and emerge
over the open western Atlantic later this afternoon, remaining well
away from the United States and Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so.
However, Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by
tonight, and be absorbed by a large extratropical low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center. Recent ship observations continue to indicate that
tropical-storm-force winds of 40 to 50 mph (65 to 83 km/h) are
occurring across the waters in and near the northwestern Bahamas.
In addition, sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) and gusts to 51 mph
(81 km/h) have been occurring at Settlement Point on the western end
of Grand Bahama Island during the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over eastern Cuba. This rainfall
could cause flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in the
mountainous terrain of Cuba. The heavy rainfall threat for the
Bahamas has diminished

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue across portions of
the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas this morning, but end
by early afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

06z MODEL GUIDANCE RUN, ENSEMBLE AND INTENSITY MODEL 0CT 29, 2017 0200 AM EDT

LATEST MODEL RUN FOR THIS MORNING:

PHILIPPE INTERMIDIATE ADVISORY 0200 AM EDT OCT 29, 2017

 ...PHILIPPE MOVING ERRATICALLY NEAR KEY WEST...

000
WTNT33 KNHC 290541
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...PHILIPPE MOVING ERRATICALLY NEAR KEY WEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 82.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.  For storm information specific to your area
outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 82.0 West.  Philippe
has been moving erratically eastward near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A
turn toward the northeast is expected during the next few hours, and
a rapid motion toward the northeast is expected through Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move across the
Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula this
morning, and across the northwestern Bahamas later today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.  However, Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical
cyclone by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Across the northern Bahamas and south Florida including
the Keys rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches are expected through today.  These rainfall
totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across
portions of central Cuba, which may lead to life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides in the higher terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over portions
of the warning area in Cuba.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected to occur in the warning area later this morning across the
northwestern Bahamas.  Tropical storm conditions are possible across
portions of the Florida Keys and southeast Florida over the next
several hours, and in the central Bahamas later this morning.

TORNADOES:  An isolated tornado or two is possible across far South
Florida and the Florida Keys this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND PHILIPPE FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY

 Something to look forward to colder temps moving in behind Philippe for Sunday Night into Monday.