Wednesday, November 15, 2017
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 0341 PM EST NOV 15, 2017
Tuesday, November 14, 2017
INVEST 96L MODEL UPDATE 0438 PM EST NOV 14, 2017
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized today in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 250 miles south-southwest of the Azores. This system still has some potential to become a subtropical cyclone during the next day or so before upper-level winds become unfavorable. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin. Forecaster Brennan
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NOV 14, 2017 1223 PM EST
Correct to last:
As for INVEST 96L South-Southwest of the Azores will be short lived as upper level wind shear increases over the area in the coming days.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization during the past several hours in association with an area of low pressure located about 300 miles south-southwest of the Azores. This system still has the potential to become a subtropical cyclone during the next couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable. Regardless of development, this low is expected to produce winds to near gale force during the next day or two while it moves slowly northeastward. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin. Forecaster Brennan
COLD AIR BLAST STILL FORECAST FOR THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING AND MONTH END
GFS AND EURO MODEL STILL INDICATING CANADIAN COLD AIR TO INVADE THE EAST, NORTHEAST AND SOUTH.
TRAVEL DISRUPTION LIKELY THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS DIP EAST AND SOUTH.
TRAVEL DISRUPTION LIKELY THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS DIP EAST AND SOUTH.
Monday, November 13, 2017
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NOV 13, 2017 1218 PM EDT
000 ABNT20 KNHC 131141 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of organization in association with a low pressure system located about 600 miles southwest of the Azores. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some additional development, and the system could become a subtropical cyclone during the next few days while it moves slowly northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
Friday, November 10, 2017
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1006 AM EST NOV 10, 2017
Thursday, November 9, 2017
MORE ON THIS POSSIBLE COLD AIR FOR END OF NOVEMBER FROM OTHER SOURCE
WeatherOptics @weatheroptics
12z GFS not backing down on a cold and stormy end to November -- The pattern being portrayed would be ideal for some kind of big end of the month winter storm.. -EPO, -AO, W-Based -NAO, +PNA w/ a lobe of our PV breaking down into the eastern US. Good timeframe to watch.
GFS HINTING ON ANOTHER DIP IN THE JET STREAM IN THE COMING WEEKS
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1032 AM EST NOV 9, 2017
Wednesday, November 8, 2017
RINA UPDATE AND TROPICAL PAGE UPDATE 0500 PM EST NOV 8, 2017
...RINA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY THURSDAY MORNING...
000 WTNT34 KNHC 082031 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 500 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 ...RINA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY THURSDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.9N 48.6W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located near latitude 40.9 North, longitude 48.6 West. Rina is moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected overnight, followed by a rapid northeastward motion on Thursday and an east-northeastward motion on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Rina is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by early Thursday morning. Rina is becoming a larger tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km), mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
RINA 1100 AM UPDATE AND TROPICAL MAP UPDATE NOV 8, 2017 1138 AM EDT
...RINA MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD...
000 WTNT34 KNHC 081442 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 AM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 ...RINA MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.4N 48.7W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 48.7 West. Rina is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected overnight, followed by a rapid northeastward motion on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight before weakening begins on Thursday. Rina is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by early Thursday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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