LONG SEVERE SQUALL LINE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS

This long line of severe storms ahead of a cold front has been producing severe weather in its path and damage in some counties have been reported...RTW

 
Tammy Scott‏ @TScott1323 2h2 hours ago

@weswyattweather sent from my sister from Florence Alabama. It was advanced auto

  Maggie Dinizio‏ @MaggieWZDX 1h1 hour ago

Damage to field house at Brooks High School in Killen @AustinWZDX #alwx

Austin Owens‏ @ao4au 24m24 minutes ago

@spann Tree down in Oneonta.

  GO! Storm Chase Vids‏ @gostormchasevid 1h1 hour ago

Tornado in Celina, Mercer County , severe weather in ,Ohio, USA, storm , winds, https://goo.gl/Xnu5WS  #wx

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NOV 18, 2017 0817 PM EST

The tropics remain quiet and there are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time.  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

NON-TROPICAL LOW TO FORM IN THE GULF COULD DAMPEN THANKSGIVING IN FLORIDA

CMC AND GFS ARE HINTING ON A WET THANKSGIVING AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF AND TRACKS OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA...RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 0105 PM EST NOV 17, 2017

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea.  Strong
upper-level winds should limit development of this system while it
drifts northward or northeastward during the next few days.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions
of the northwestern coast of Colombia, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico
through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi 

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 0341 PM EST NOV 15, 2017

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time.  There still is a trough of low pressure that extends from the Southern Caribbean over Haiti, Dominican Republic, and into the Atlantic that has been producing heavy rains over the Southern Caribbean, and adjacent land area, Haiti and Dominican Republic.  This moisture is gradually shifting east toward Puerto Rico as well.  This is due to fronts that move over the Atlantic that tap into the moisture in the Caribbean and it begins to stream northeastward.  Flash floods are possible if the rains train over the same area for long periods of time....RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

INVEST 96L MODEL UPDATE 0438 PM EST NOV 14, 2017

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized
today in association with a broad area of low pressure located about
250 miles south-southwest of the Azores. This system still has some
potential to become a subtropical cyclone during the next day or
so before upper-level winds become unfavorable. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin.

Forecaster Brennan 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NOV 14, 2017 1223 PM EST

There still is a trough of low pressure in the southern Caribbean.  Development is not likely at this time.  A series of cold fronts that will dip south in the coming weeks will prevent this system from tracking northwest or into the Gulf.  We are looking good.

Correct to last:
As for INVEST 96L South-Southwest of the Azores will be short lived as upper level wind shear increases over the area in the coming days.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization during
the past several hours in association with an area of low pressure
located about 300 miles south-southwest of the Azores. This system
still has the potential to become a subtropical cyclone during the
next couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable.
Regardless of development, this low is expected to produce winds to
near gale force during the next day or two while it moves slowly
northeastward. For additional information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin.

Forecaster Brennan 

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

COLD AIR BLAST STILL FORECAST FOR THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING AND MONTH END

GFS AND EURO MODEL STILL INDICATING CANADIAN COLD AIR TO INVADE THE EAST, NORTHEAST AND SOUTH.

TRAVEL DISRUPTION LIKELY THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS DIP EAST AND SOUTH.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NOV 13, 2017 1218 PM EDT

Other than INVEST 96L that the tropics remain quiet...RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131141
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a low pressure system located about
600 miles southwest of the Azores.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some additional development, and the
system could become a subtropical cyclone during the next few days
while it moves slowly northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

GFS STILL HINTING ON A COLD END TO NOVEMBER

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1006 AM EST NOV 10, 2017

The tropics remain quiet looks like it may stay this way according to long range models.  Lets hope they are correct.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

MORE ON THIS POSSIBLE COLD AIR FOR END OF NOVEMBER FROM OTHER SOURCE

WeatherOptics‏ @weatheroptics 1

12z GFS not backing down on a cold and stormy end to November -- The pattern being portrayed would be ideal for some kind of big end of the month winter storm.. -EPO, -AO, W-Based -NAO, +PNA w/ a lobe of our PV breaking down into the eastern US. Good timeframe to watch.