THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR DAY-1,2 AND 3

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PENINSULA.  HOWEVER, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AT THIS TIME.

RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR FLORIDA

So far it does not look like a significant rainfall event at this time.  Here is Day-1, 2 and 3 rainfall outlook.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES PROGESSING WESTWARD

A mid to upper level disturbance continues progressing westward.  Squally conditions are moving over the Bahamas.  The Low center seems to be close to the north coast of Cuba or partially over it according to latest water vapor imagery.  Showers and storms are trying to rap around the broad center of circulation.  You can see showers and storms along the western edge of the circulation.  So far rain is in the forecast for Florida over the weekend as this system approaches the Peninsula.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

 Upper Level Water Vapor

 Middle Level Water Vapor

 Lower Level Water Vapor

RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER SITE IS UP MONITORING DISTURBANCE

I HAVE ACTIVATED SITE EARLY UNTIL THIS SYSTEM IS NO LONGER BEING MONITORED.  I WAS ORIGINALLY GOING TO ACTIVATE SITE IN MAY 15, 2018 FOR WAVE TRACKING BUT THIS SYSTEM POPPED IN EARLY.  LINK IS BELOW...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

LATEST SATELLITE ANIMATION FROM COD.EDU

NHC SPECIAL TROPICAL OUTLOOK

NHC Atlantic Ops‏Verified account @NHC_Atlantic 2m2 minutes ago

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook has been issued on the system near the Bahamas. While development is not expected, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over southern Florida and the Bahamas through this weekend. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 …

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING WEST FOR THE WEEKEND

An upper level disturbance tracking west toward Florida could enhance showers and storms over the weekend.  Period of brief heavy rains with gusty winds and possible lightning during the next few days and increasing as the low moves toward the southern half of Florida.  Dry air ahead of this system due to high pressure will prevent development from occurring.  This is a gale center at most which could kick up winds over the Bahamas and Southeast Florida Atlantic waters.

MARK YOUR CALENDAR MAY 15, 2018

Just a heads up that starting May 15, 2018 I begin tracking tropical waves across the Atlantic.  I will post on a daily basis the waves on the RTW website, to keep you up to date on wave activity that may have a potential for development as they track off the African coast across the Atlantic basin.  I will post link to website here when updates are published for your viewing.  So see you here May 15, 2018.
RTW

STORM WARNING

267
WUUS54 KFWD 212026
SVRFWD
TXC237-363-503-212130-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0097.180421T2026Z-180421T2130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
326 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2018

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Young County in north central Texas...
  Southwestern Jack County in north central Texas...
  Northern Palo Pinto County in north central Texas...

* Until 430 PM CDT.

* At 326 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Possum
  Kingdom State Park, or 9 miles south of Graham, moving east at 25
  mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Mineral Wells, Graford and Possum Kingdom State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3305 9864 3307 9799 3300 9799 3300 9805
      3274 9806 3284 9858 3295 9858 3296 9865
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 273DEG 23KT 3296 9856

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

PS

DAY-1 TRONADO PROBABILITY

Day-1 Tornado Probability in the southern Plains is at 2% chance.

Day-1 Hail Probability is at 5% and 15%

 Day-1 Strong wind probability 5%

DAY-1 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

Southern Plains has a better chance for storms and we can see that this is already occurring in that area.  There is a chance for thunderstorms as well over most of Florida.
RTW

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

318
WUUS52 KMFL 152355
SVRMFL
FLC099-160030-
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0005.180415T2355Z-180416T0030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
755 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  East central Palm Beach County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 830 PM EDT.

* At 755 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Wellington,
  moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to
           mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
  West Palm Beach, Wellington, Jupiter, Palm Beach Gardens and
  Riviera Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service
office in Miami. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2659 8029 2668 8037 2706 7992 2683 7975
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 234DEG 48KT 2667 8029

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

67