SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FROM NWS MIAMI

WEATHER OVERVIEW FROM NWS IN MIAMI FLORIDA

LATEST SATELLITE ANIMATIONS

Satellite you see here is infrared and water vapor.  Most of the heavy moisture is east and southeast of the weak center.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

RAINFALL OUTLOOK DAY-1 THRU 3

So far at my house over night 0.64 inches of rain not that bad.  This system center is mostly over Cuba and has lost most of the moisture ahead of it.  Should not be a washout in anyway.  However, do expect every so often a fast moving showers.  So far on latest radar shows the heaviest concentration of showers is over the Florida Straits and Keys.  Lightning has remain concentrated south of Haiti and North of Jamaica. So as for the chance of thunderstorms with these cells its Low chance on the west side of the upper low.  There still is a chance for a thunderstorm to pop up during the heating of the day but once again this system seems to be pretty benign at this time.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 Day-1 thunderstorm outlook

 Day-2 Thunderstorm outlook

 Day-3 Thunderstorm outlook

RAIN BANDS FROM THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND

Outer bands from this mid to upper level low are moving onshore this evening.  You can expect brief heavy downpours with gusty winds and lightning with stronger cells.  The low is partially over Cuba and the Atlantic waters. Development is not likely at this time.
RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR DAY-1,2 AND 3

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PENINSULA.  HOWEVER, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AT THIS TIME.

RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR FLORIDA

So far it does not look like a significant rainfall event at this time.  Here is Day-1, 2 and 3 rainfall outlook.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES PROGESSING WESTWARD

A mid to upper level disturbance continues progressing westward.  Squally conditions are moving over the Bahamas.  The Low center seems to be close to the north coast of Cuba or partially over it according to latest water vapor imagery.  Showers and storms are trying to rap around the broad center of circulation.  You can see showers and storms along the western edge of the circulation.  So far rain is in the forecast for Florida over the weekend as this system approaches the Peninsula.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

 Upper Level Water Vapor

 Middle Level Water Vapor

 Lower Level Water Vapor

RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER SITE IS UP MONITORING DISTURBANCE

I HAVE ACTIVATED SITE EARLY UNTIL THIS SYSTEM IS NO LONGER BEING MONITORED.  I WAS ORIGINALLY GOING TO ACTIVATE SITE IN MAY 15, 2018 FOR WAVE TRACKING BUT THIS SYSTEM POPPED IN EARLY.  LINK IS BELOW...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

LATEST SATELLITE ANIMATION FROM COD.EDU

NHC SPECIAL TROPICAL OUTLOOK

NHC Atlantic Ops‏Verified account @NHC_Atlantic 2m2 minutes ago

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook has been issued on the system near the Bahamas. While development is not expected, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over southern Florida and the Bahamas through this weekend. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 …

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING WEST FOR THE WEEKEND

An upper level disturbance tracking west toward Florida could enhance showers and storms over the weekend.  Period of brief heavy rains with gusty winds and possible lightning during the next few days and increasing as the low moves toward the southern half of Florida.  Dry air ahead of this system due to high pressure will prevent development from occurring.  This is a gale center at most which could kick up winds over the Bahamas and Southeast Florida Atlantic waters.

MARK YOUR CALENDAR MAY 15, 2018

Just a heads up that starting May 15, 2018 I begin tracking tropical waves across the Atlantic.  I will post on a daily basis the waves on the RTW website, to keep you up to date on wave activity that may have a potential for development as they track off the African coast across the Atlantic basin.  I will post link to website here when updates are published for your viewing.  So see you here May 15, 2018.
RTW