EAST PACIFIC STROM INVESTIGATION 90E

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1030 AM PDT Tue May 8 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite images indicate that a broad area of low pressure has
developed in association with the region of disturbed weather
located a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula. The system is gradually becoming
better organized and environmental conditions appear to be favorable
for some additional development. A tropical depression could form
from this system later today or Wednesday before the disturbance
moves slowly northwestward toward unfavorable upper-level winds
later this week. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 11 AM PDT Wednesday, or earlier, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Avila

 RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER GRAPHICS BELOW

CURRENT TRACK

PREVIOUS TRACK MODEL

 GFS ENSEMBLE

FLORIDA WEEKEND FORECAST IS LOOKING WET!

Looks like moisture from the tropics will set in for this weekend.  Latest GFS shows plenty of moisture rising northward from the Caribbean (blue color).  Could be associated with a weak upper level trough.  Could this be a drought relief for parts of Florida?
RTW

TODAYS FORECAST FROM NWS IN MIAMI FLORIDA

NWS Miami‏Verified account @NWSMiami 22m22 minutes ago

Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the interior and west this afternoon for South Florida. Temperatures will warm up into the 90s out west and mid 80s along the east coast metro areas. Chance of rain increases by the end of the week. #FLwx

EAST PACIFIC STORM INVESTIGATION 90E

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1045 AM PDT Mon May 7 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disturbed weather has formed a little more than
one thousand miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
marginally favorable for some development during the next day or
two while the disturbance moves generally toward the west-northwest
and northwest.  After that time, upper-level winds are expected to
become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation.  The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by
11 AM PDT Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Avila

THUNDERSTORM AND RAINFALL OUTLOOK DAY-1-3

MIAMI FORECAST FROM NWS MIAMI FLORIDA

DAY-1-3 THUNDERSTORM AND RAINFALL PROBABILITY

The darker shades of colors represent the heaviest rainfall probability

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FROM NWS MIAMI

WEATHER OVERVIEW FROM NWS IN MIAMI FLORIDA

LATEST SATELLITE ANIMATIONS

Satellite you see here is infrared and water vapor.  Most of the heavy moisture is east and southeast of the weak center.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

RAINFALL OUTLOOK DAY-1 THRU 3

So far at my house over night 0.64 inches of rain not that bad.  This system center is mostly over Cuba and has lost most of the moisture ahead of it.  Should not be a washout in anyway.  However, do expect every so often a fast moving showers.  So far on latest radar shows the heaviest concentration of showers is over the Florida Straits and Keys.  Lightning has remain concentrated south of Haiti and North of Jamaica. So as for the chance of thunderstorms with these cells its Low chance on the west side of the upper low.  There still is a chance for a thunderstorm to pop up during the heating of the day but once again this system seems to be pretty benign at this time.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 Day-1 thunderstorm outlook

 Day-2 Thunderstorm outlook

 Day-3 Thunderstorm outlook

RAIN BANDS FROM THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND

Outer bands from this mid to upper level low are moving onshore this evening.  You can expect brief heavy downpours with gusty winds and lightning with stronger cells.  The low is partially over Cuba and the Atlantic waters. Development is not likely at this time.
RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net