DISTURBANCE INVESTIGATION UPDATE 0400 PM EDT MAY 14, 2018

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
345 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A deep-layer non-tropical area of low pressure located over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce widespread cloudiness,
showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida and southeastern
Georgia.  Although this system could still acquire some subtropical
or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days, the low has
not shown signs of increased organization during the past 24 hours.
Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system
will produce locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding
across portions of Florida and the southeastern United States during
the next few days.  For more information on this system, please see
products issued by your local weather office.  The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT
on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Berg 

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

STORM INVESTIGATION MONDAY 14, 2018...1011 AM EDT

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
935 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending
from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across much of the Florida Peninsula
is associated with a broad surface low pressure area interacting
with an upper-level low.  This system could acquire some subtropical
or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.  Regardless of
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance
rainfall across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast
during the next few days.  For more information on this system,
please see products issued by your local weather office.  The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 4
PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Pasch 

STORM INVESTIGATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
340 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending
from western Cuba across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the
Florida Straits, and much of the Florida Peninsula is associated
with a broad surface low and trough interacting with an upper-level
low. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of subtropical
or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance rainfall
across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during
the next few days. For more information on this system, please see
products issued by your local weather office. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 11 AM EDT
Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

Rain Amount Potential Experimental - Leave feedback 05/11/2018 0800AM to 05/14/2018 0800AM

POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR A PORTION OF FLORIDA

000
FGUS72 KMFL 101922
ESFMFL
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-110730-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
322 PM EDT Thu May 10 2018

...Heavy Rain Potential Increasing Across South Florida...

An upper level low is forecast to develop over the eastern Gulf 
of Mexico this weekend, as a trough of low pressure moves 
northward from the Florida Straits into South Florida. These 
factors will cause tropical moisture to overspread the region, 
with the potential for heavy showers and thunderstorms especially 
late Saturday through Sunday, and possibly continuing well into 
next week. Most areas will see between 2 and 4 inches of rain 
during this period, but locally higher amounts are possible. 
Despite ongoing drought conditions, several periods of heavy rain
may lead to local flooding concerns late this weekend into next 
week.

$$

Baxter/Scharfenberg

DAYS 1-5 RAINFALL

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

EAST PACIFIC STORM INVESTIGATION 90E WEAKENS A BIT

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ABPZ20 KNHC 100245
TWOEP 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 PM PDT Wed May 9 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with the broad low pressure area located
about 1250 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become less organized since yesterday, and
upper-level winds are becoming less favorable for development.
While there is still a chance that a tropical depression could form
tonight or Thursday before stronger upper-level winds become
established over the system, the chances of tropical cyclone
formation continue to diminish.  Another Special Tropical Weather
Outlook on this disturbance will be issued by 11 AM PDT on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

LATEST MODELS FOR INVEST EAST PACIFIC INVEST 90E

DAYS 1-5 RAINFALL PROBABILITY FOR FLORIDA

PLEASE NOTE THAT THESE ARE FORECAST AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE, SO CHECK BACK DAILY FOR UPDATES OR CLICK ON THIS LINK FOR THE LATEST RAINFALL PROBABILITIES  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

RTW

 

COURTESY OF LEVI COWAN @TropicalTibits

Like I mentioned earlier this morning! (Read my post scroll down)

Look for a wet pattern to encroach on Florida next week. An upper trough currently over Mexico is expected to meander slowly into the Gulf of Mexico. This is a situation which can also lead to subtropical storm development, but all we can say for now is that things may turn wet.

INTERESTING, THANKS PHILIP!

Philip Klotzbach‏Verified account @philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago

Location where all Atlantic Cat. 5 (>= 157 mph) #hurricanes on record first reached Cat. 5 intensity. Western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, near The Bahamas and near the Antilles primary areas where TCs first hit Cat. 5.

EAST PACIFIC STROM INVESTIGATION 90E

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1030 AM PDT Tue May 8 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite images indicate that a broad area of low pressure has
developed in association with the region of disturbed weather
located a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula. The system is gradually becoming
better organized and environmental conditions appear to be favorable
for some additional development. A tropical depression could form
from this system later today or Wednesday before the disturbance
moves slowly northwestward toward unfavorable upper-level winds
later this week. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 11 AM PDT Wednesday, or earlier, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Avila

 RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER GRAPHICS BELOW

CURRENT TRACK

PREVIOUS TRACK MODEL

 GFS ENSEMBLE

FLORIDA WEEKEND FORECAST IS LOOKING WET!

Looks like moisture from the tropics will set in for this weekend.  Latest GFS shows plenty of moisture rising northward from the Caribbean (blue color).  Could be associated with a weak upper level trough.  Could this be a drought relief for parts of Florida?
RTW