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Thursday, May 17, 2018
THIS MORNING MODEL RUN ON THE POSSIBLE CARIBBEAN SYSTEM
There are a few more models that are picking up on possible development in the southern/northwest Caribbean by late next week into the Memorial Day weekend. Just a heads up!
TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 17, 2018... 1011 AM EDT
I am still monitoring the south and northwest Caribbean for tropical cyclone development. Before it was just the GFS model suggesting development but now I am seeing the ECMWF model as well. I have also noticed cloudiness and storms developing east of the Nicaragua coast so this area bares watching during the last two weeks of May.
RTW
RTW
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 16. 2018 1048 AM EDT
I am monitoring the Northwest Caribbean for early tropical development since the GFS model persistently continues to insist on the possibility of a tropical cyclone forming near the Honduras/ Nicaragua coast. Most of the times these model run are bogus but when a model continues to insist on development I will monitor it closely. RTW
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME ...RTW
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME ...RTW
GULF DISTURBANCE UPDATE MAY 16, 2018 0920 AM EDT
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad non-tropical area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida, western Cuba and a good portion of the Bahamas. This system is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure, and tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated. This is the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system, but additional information will be included in products issued by your local weather office. Routine Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on June 1. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. Forecaster Avila
Tuesday, May 15, 2018
TROPICAL WAVE WATCH UPDATE 0359 PM EDT MAY 15, 2018
1. A tropical wave - the first of the season - has been included on the Surface Analysis near 31W from about 02N to 11N. There is no discernible surface signature to the wave, though it is well defined on the SUNY-Albany Trough Diagnostics through cyclonic turning of the 700 mb winds as well as a maximum in total precipitable water just east of wave axis. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave...NHC
There are no signs of development at this time...RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
TROPICAL WAVE WATCH MAY 15, 2018
There are no waves to track across the Atlantic at this time. I will post twice daily or as conditions warrant.
RTW
Website below:
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
RTW
Website below:
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
GULF DISTURBANCE DISORGANIZED RAINS MOVING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad non-tropical area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida, southeastern Georgia and a good portion of the Bahamas. This system has not become any better organized since yesterday and conditions are becoming even less favorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation. This system, however, will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Florida and the southeastern United States during the next few days while the low moves generally northward. For more information on this system, please see products issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT on Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Avila
Monday, May 14, 2018
DISTURBANCE INVESTIGATION UPDATE 0400 PM EDT MAY 14, 2018
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 345 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A deep-layer non-tropical area of low pressure located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce widespread cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida and southeastern Georgia. Although this system could still acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days, the low has not shown signs of increased organization during the past 24 hours. Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will produce locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Florida and the southeastern United States during the next few days. For more information on this system, please see products issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT on Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Berg
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
STORM INVESTIGATION MONDAY 14, 2018...1011 AM EDT
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 935 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across much of the Florida Peninsula is associated with a broad surface low pressure area interacting with an upper-level low. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance rainfall across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during the next few days. For more information on this system, please see products issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 4 PM EDT today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Pasch
Sunday, May 13, 2018
STORM INVESTIGATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 340 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending from western Cuba across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the Florida Straits, and much of the Florida Peninsula is associated with a broad surface low and trough interacting with an upper-level low. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance rainfall across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during the next few days. For more information on this system, please see products issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 11 AM EDT Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Brennan
Friday, May 11, 2018
Thursday, May 10, 2018
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR A PORTION OF FLORIDA
000 FGUS72 KMFL 101922 ESFMFL FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-110730- Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Miami FL 322 PM EDT Thu May 10 2018 ...Heavy Rain Potential Increasing Across South Florida... An upper level low is forecast to develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, as a trough of low pressure moves northward from the Florida Straits into South Florida. These factors will cause tropical moisture to overspread the region, with the potential for heavy showers and thunderstorms especially late Saturday through Sunday, and possibly continuing well into next week. Most areas will see between 2 and 4 inches of rain during this period, but locally higher amounts are possible. Despite ongoing drought conditions, several periods of heavy rain may lead to local flooding concerns late this weekend into next week. $$ Baxter/Scharfenberg
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