TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 20, 2018... 0744 AM EDT

STILL MONITORING THE CARIBBEAN FOR SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT INTO NEXT WEEK...RTW

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER FLORIDA AND CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TO OUR SOUTH AS A TROUGH IS SITTING OVER THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE CAYMAN, CUBA FLORIDA.  THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS STILL THERE AS RAINS AND STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD

FLC011-086-201315-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0013.180520T1021Z-180520T1315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Miami-Dade FL-Broward FL-
621 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Northern Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...
Southern Broward County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 915 AM EDT.

* At 621 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in
the advisory area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Fort Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood, Miramar and Davie. 

Additional rainfall of up to 2 inches is expected over the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 2609 8009 2596 8012 2596 8033 2611 8034

FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA

FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172>174-201500-
/O.EXT.KMFL.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180520T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Inland Broward-Metro Broward-
Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-Coastal Palm Beach-
Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
854 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of South Florida, including the following areas, 
Coastal Broward, Coastal Miami-Dade, Coastal Palm Beach, Far 
South Miami-Dade, Inland Broward, Inland Miami-Dade, Inland 
Palm Beach, Metro Broward, Metro Miami-Dade, and Metro Palm 
Beach. 

* Through Sunday morning

* Light to moderate rain will continue across South Florida
through the late evening hours, with additional heavier rainfall
expected to move into the east coast metro areas late tonight
through Sunday morning. Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 3
inches are expected, with isolated areas receiving higher 
amounts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 19, 2018...11:53 AM

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

FLOOD WATCH STILL IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA

 A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA IS STILL UNDER A FLOOD WATCH ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING. A STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. THIS TRAINING EFFECT OF RAINS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA CAN PRODUCE FLOODING IN THE AREAS PRONE FOR FLOODING. USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING TODAY AND IF THE STREETS ARE FLOODED AND YOUR NOT SURE OF THE DEPTH OF THE WATER TAKE ANOTHER ROUTE. "TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN". RTW

FLOOD WATCH SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172>174-191600-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0001.180519T1000Z-180520T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Inland Broward-Metro Broward-
Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-Coastal Palm Beach-
Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
358 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of South Florida, including the 
following areas, Coastal Broward, Coastal Miami-Dade, Coastal 
Palm Beach, Far South Miami-Dade, Inland Broward, Inland 
Miami- Dade, Inland Palm Beach, Metro Broward, Metro 
Miami-Dade, and Metro Palm Beach. 

* Through this evening

* Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms with periods of 
heavy rain area expected today. This may lead to flooding. 
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated 
areas likely to receive much higher amounts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 19, 2018...

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 18, 2018...0952 AM EDT

1.  Still monitoring the Northwest Caribbean for development into next week.

2.  Early to see, but there is a strong area of convection (Thunderstorms) that just moved off the African coast.  More than likely it will weaken as it tracks further to the west.  Just interesting to see as we get closer to the season how we start seeing this activity and so early.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 17, 2018...0451 PM EDT

Website updated!

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

THIS MORNING MODEL RUN ON THE POSSIBLE CARIBBEAN SYSTEM

There are a few more models that are picking up on possible development in the southern/northwest Caribbean by late next week into the Memorial Day weekend.  Just a heads up!

TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 17, 2018... 1011 AM EDT

I am still monitoring the south and northwest Caribbean for tropical cyclone development.  Before it was just the GFS model suggesting development but now I am seeing the ECMWF model as well.  I have also noticed cloudiness and storms developing east of the Nicaragua coast so this area bares watching during the last two weeks of May.
RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 16. 2018 1048 AM EDT

I am monitoring the Northwest Caribbean for early tropical development since the GFS model persistently continues to insist on the possibility of a tropical cyclone forming near the Honduras/ Nicaragua coast.  Most of the times these model run are bogus but when a model continues to insist on development I will monitor it closely.  RTW
 
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME ...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net/

GULF DISTURBANCE UPDATE MAY 16, 2018 0920 AM EDT

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad non-tropical area of low pressure located over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread cloudiness,
showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida, western Cuba and
a good portion of the Bahamas.  This system is forecast to
degenerate into a trough of low pressure, and tropical cyclone
formation is not anticipated. This is the last Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system, but additional information will be
included in products issued by your local weather office. Routine
Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on June 1.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Avila