I continue to monitor the Northwest Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation by this weekend. Most of the models suggest some development but so far none are suggesting anything strong. Interest from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this weather system...RTW
Monday, May 21, 2018
TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 21, 2018...1107 AM EDT
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 830 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula are associated with the interaction of a large upper-level low with a weak surface trough. While environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some gradual development is possible later this week while the system moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and Florida over the next several days. For more information on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 800 PM EDT tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Blake
Sunday, May 20, 2018
TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 20, 2018... 0744 AM EDT
STILL MONITORING THE CARIBBEAN FOR SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT INTO NEXT WEEK...RTW
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER FLORIDA AND CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TO OUR SOUTH AS A TROUGH IS SITTING OVER THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE CAYMAN, CUBA FLORIDA. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS STILL THERE AS RAINS AND STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA...RTW
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER FLORIDA AND CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TO OUR SOUTH AS A TROUGH IS SITTING OVER THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE CAYMAN, CUBA FLORIDA. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS STILL THERE AS RAINS AND STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA...RTW
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD
FLC011-086-201315-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0013.180520T1021Z-180520T1315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Miami-Dade FL-Broward FL-
621 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a
* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Northern Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...
Southern Broward County in southeastern Florida...
* Until 915 AM EDT.
* At 621 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in
the advisory area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Fort Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood, Miramar and Davie.
Additional rainfall of up to 2 inches is expected over the area.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
LAT...LON 2609 8009 2596 8012 2596 8033 2611 8034
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0013.180520T1021Z-180520T1315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Miami-Dade FL-Broward FL-
621 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a
* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Northern Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...
Southern Broward County in southeastern Florida...
* Until 915 AM EDT.
* At 621 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in
the advisory area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Fort Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood, Miramar and Davie.
Additional rainfall of up to 2 inches is expected over the area.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
LAT...LON 2609 8009 2596 8012 2596 8033 2611 8034
Saturday, May 19, 2018
FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172>174-201500-
/O.EXT.KMFL.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180520T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Inland Broward-Metro Broward-
Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-Coastal Palm Beach-
Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
854 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018
...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
The Flood Watch is now in effect for
* A portion of South Florida, including the following areas,
Coastal Broward, Coastal Miami-Dade, Coastal Palm Beach, Far
South Miami-Dade, Inland Broward, Inland Miami-Dade, Inland
Palm Beach, Metro Broward, Metro Miami-Dade, and Metro Palm
Beach.
* Through Sunday morning
* Light to moderate rain will continue across South Florida
through the late evening hours, with additional heavier rainfall
expected to move into the east coast metro areas late tonight
through Sunday morning. Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 3
inches are expected, with isolated areas receiving higher
amounts.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.
&&
/O.EXT.KMFL.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180520T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Inland Broward-Metro Broward-
Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-Coastal Palm Beach-
Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
854 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018
...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
The Flood Watch is now in effect for
* A portion of South Florida, including the following areas,
Coastal Broward, Coastal Miami-Dade, Coastal Palm Beach, Far
South Miami-Dade, Inland Broward, Inland Miami-Dade, Inland
Palm Beach, Metro Broward, Metro Miami-Dade, and Metro Palm
Beach.
* Through Sunday morning
* Light to moderate rain will continue across South Florida
through the late evening hours, with additional heavier rainfall
expected to move into the east coast metro areas late tonight
through Sunday morning. Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 3
inches are expected, with isolated areas receiving higher
amounts.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.
&&
FLOOD WATCH STILL IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA
A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA IS STILL UNDER A FLOOD WATCH ISSUED EARLIER
THIS MORNING. A STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. THIS TRAINING EFFECT OF RAINS
MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA CAN PRODUCE FLOODING IN THE AREAS PRONE FOR
FLOODING. USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING TODAY AND IF THE STREETS ARE FLOODED
AND YOUR NOT SURE OF THE DEPTH OF THE WATER TAKE ANOTHER ROUTE. "TURN
AROUND DON'T DROWN". RTW
FLOOD WATCH SOUTH FLORIDA
FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172>174-191600-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0001.180519T1000Z-180520T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Inland Broward-Metro Broward-
Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-Coastal Palm Beach-
Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
358 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a
* Flood Watch for a portion of South Florida, including the
following areas, Coastal Broward, Coastal Miami-Dade, Coastal
Palm Beach, Far South Miami-Dade, Inland Broward, Inland
Miami- Dade, Inland Palm Beach, Metro Broward, Metro
Miami-Dade, and Metro Palm Beach.
* Through this evening
* Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms with periods of
heavy rain area expected today. This may lead to flooding.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated
areas likely to receive much higher amounts.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.
&&
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0001.180519T1000Z-180520T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Inland Broward-Metro Broward-
Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-Coastal Palm Beach-
Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
358 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a
* Flood Watch for a portion of South Florida, including the
following areas, Coastal Broward, Coastal Miami-Dade, Coastal
Palm Beach, Far South Miami-Dade, Inland Broward, Inland
Miami- Dade, Inland Palm Beach, Metro Broward, Metro
Miami-Dade, and Metro Palm Beach.
* Through this evening
* Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms with periods of
heavy rain area expected today. This may lead to flooding.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated
areas likely to receive much higher amounts.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.
&&
Friday, May 18, 2018
TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 18, 2018...0952 AM EDT
1. Still monitoring the Northwest Caribbean for development into next week.
2. Early to see, but there is a strong area of convection (Thunderstorms) that just moved off the African coast. More than likely it will weaken as it tracks further to the west. Just interesting to see as we get closer to the season how we start seeing this activity and so early.
2. Early to see, but there is a strong area of convection (Thunderstorms) that just moved off the African coast. More than likely it will weaken as it tracks further to the west. Just interesting to see as we get closer to the season how we start seeing this activity and so early.
Thursday, May 17, 2018
THIS MORNING MODEL RUN ON THE POSSIBLE CARIBBEAN SYSTEM
There are a few more models that are picking up on possible development in the southern/northwest Caribbean by late next week into the Memorial Day weekend. Just a heads up!
TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 17, 2018... 1011 AM EDT
I am still monitoring the south and northwest Caribbean for tropical cyclone development. Before it was just the GFS model suggesting development but now I am seeing the ECMWF model as well. I have also noticed cloudiness and storms developing east of the Nicaragua coast so this area bares watching during the last two weeks of May.
RTW
RTW
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