Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

18z MODEL RUN FOR INVEST 90L MAY 22, 2018... 0427 PM EDT

Here are the latest 18z model run for INVEST 90L, and they are all over the Place. Looking at a disorganized system so what can you expect out of the models, nothing much. Anyhow this system should slowly track northward in the coming days. Looks like this system will basically be another rain producer so those area from Louisiana to Florida should be ready for torrential rains and possible flooding into the Memorial Day weekend...RTW

MONITORING INVEST 90L AND TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 22, 2018...

STORM INVEST 90L

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad surface low centered just east of Belize is producing a
large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the Florida peninsula.  While strong
upper-level winds and dry air aloft are expected to limit
organization during the next couple of days, some gradual
subtropical or tropical development is possible late this week while
the system moves slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and much of
Florida during the next several days.  For more information on the
heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

Monday, May 21, 2018

TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 21, 2018...0909 PM EDT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 212331
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad surface low pressure area has formed over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles east of the coast of Belize.
This low and an upper-level trough are producing widespread
cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean
Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula.  While environmental
conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development during
the next couple of days, some gradual subtropical or tropical
development is possible later this week while the system moves
slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible
across western Cuba and much of Florida during the next several
days.  For more information on the heavy rain threat, please see
products issued by your local weather office. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 800 AM
EDT on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

MEMORIAL WEEKEND FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP

I continue to monitor the Northwest Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation by this weekend. Most of the models suggest some development but so far none are suggesting anything strong. Interest from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this weather system...RTW

TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 21, 2018...1107 AM EDT

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula are associated
with the interaction of a large upper-level low with a weak surface
trough.  While environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some
gradual development is possible later this week while the system
moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba
and Florida over the next several days.  For more information on
the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 PM EDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

RTW WEBSITE UPDATED MAY 21, 2018 1119 AM EDT

 http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

Sunday, May 20, 2018

TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 20, 2018... 0744 AM EDT

STILL MONITORING THE CARIBBEAN FOR SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT INTO NEXT WEEK...RTW

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER FLORIDA AND CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TO OUR SOUTH AS A TROUGH IS SITTING OVER THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE CAYMAN, CUBA FLORIDA. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS STILL THERE AS RAINS AND STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD

FLC011-086-201315-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0013.180520T1021Z-180520T1315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Miami-Dade FL-Broward FL-
621 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Northern Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...
Southern Broward County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 915 AM EDT.

* At 621 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in
the advisory area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Fort Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood, Miramar and Davie.

Additional rainfall of up to 2 inches is expected over the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 2609 8009 2596 8012 2596 8033 2611 8034

Saturday, May 19, 2018

FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA

FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172>174-201500-
/O.EXT.KMFL.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180520T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Inland Broward-Metro Broward-
Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-Coastal Palm Beach-
Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
854 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of South Florida, including the following areas,
Coastal Broward, Coastal Miami-Dade, Coastal Palm Beach, Far
South Miami-Dade, Inland Broward, Inland Miami-Dade, Inland
Palm Beach, Metro Broward, Metro Miami-Dade, and Metro Palm
Beach.

* Through Sunday morning

* Light to moderate rain will continue across South Florida
through the late evening hours, with additional heavier rainfall
expected to move into the east coast metro areas late tonight
through Sunday morning. Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 3
inches are expected, with isolated areas receiving higher
amounts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 19, 2018...11:53 AM

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

FLOOD WATCH STILL IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA

A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA IS STILL UNDER A FLOOD WATCH ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING. A STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. THIS TRAINING EFFECT OF RAINS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA CAN PRODUCE FLOODING IN THE AREAS PRONE FOR FLOODING. USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING TODAY AND IF THE STREETS ARE FLOODED AND YOUR NOT SURE OF THE DEPTH OF THE WATER TAKE ANOTHER ROUTE. "TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN". RTW

FLOOD WATCH SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172>174-191600-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0001.180519T1000Z-180520T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Inland Broward-Metro Broward-
Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-Coastal Palm Beach-
Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
358 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of South Florida, including the
following areas, Coastal Broward, Coastal Miami-Dade, Coastal
Palm Beach, Far South Miami-Dade, Inland Broward, Inland
Miami- Dade, Inland Palm Beach, Metro Broward, Metro
Miami-Dade, and Metro Palm Beach.

* Through this evening

* Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms with periods of
heavy rain area expected today. This may lead to flooding.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated
areas likely to receive much higher amounts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 19, 2018...

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net