ALBERTO FULL UPDATE
000
WTNT31 KNHC 262051
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018
...ALBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 85.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of the
Florida peninsula from Bonita Beach to the Anclote River.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast
from the Aucilla River westward to the Mississippi/Alabama border.
The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued west of the Mouth of
the Pearl River including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.
The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued to the west of the
Mouth of the Pearl River.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Mouth of the Pearl River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Anclote River
* Aucilla River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 85.1 West. The storm
is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower
northward or north-northeastward motion is expected tonight,
followed by a north-northwest turn on Sunday, and this general
motion should continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Alberto is forecast to move over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and approach the northern Gulf
Coast in the warning area on Monday. Heavy rainfall and tropical
storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well
before the arrival of the center of Alberto.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the
northern Gulf Coast on Monday.
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to
the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western
Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum
amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwest Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect
the central Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States on
Sunday and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves
northward after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with
maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto
from eastern Louisiana, across much of Mississippi, Alabama, western
Tennessee and the western Florida panhandle. Rainfall totals of 3
to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are possible from the
southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast United States.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Cuba through this evening. Tropical Storm
conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas and in the warning
area along the west coast of Florida beginning Sunday. Tropical
Storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the
northern Gulf Coast by Sunday night. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the watch area along the northern Gulf Coast by
early Monday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Crystal River to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2 to 4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening and
tonight across parts of west-central Florida, including the Keys.
SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are expected to spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. For more information, consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC FORECAST TRACK AND STORM WIND FIELD RADIUS
18Z GUIDANCE MODELS
H-MODEL COMBO RUN
UKMET MODEL COMBO RUN
CMC MODEL COMBO RUN
LATE MODEL RUN
GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL RUN
DAYS 1-5 (120 hrs) RAINFALL OUTLOOK
LEVEL 3 RADAR STILL IMAGE
