https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
HELENE
JOYCE
REMNANTS OF ISAAC
NEW SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE COMING DAYS
Saturday, September 15, 2018
...FLORENCE FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA CAUSING CATASTROPHIC LIFE THREATENING RIVER FLASH FLOODING...
297 WTNT31 KNHC 150241 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 63 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 ...CENTER OF FLORENCE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT... ...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 79.1W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WNW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SE OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning have been discontinued north of Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina * Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina * Pamlico Sound Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located over extreme eastern South Carolina near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 79.1 West. Florence is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Saturday. Florence is forecast to turn westward and then northward through the Carolinas and to the Ohio Valley by Monday. Radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the next couple of days, and it is likely to weaken to a tropical depression by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A wind gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was recently reported at Lumberton, North Carolina. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) were recently reported at Florence, South Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground... The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...4-7 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Cape Lookout NC...2-4 ft Cape Lookout NC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft Cape Fear NC to Myrtle Beach SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through Saturday in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with tropical storm force wind gusts spreading well inland. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina through Saturday night. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Friday, September 14, 2018
FLORENCE 5 PM EDT ADVISORY SEPT 14, 2018
985 WTNT31 KNHC 142039 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 62 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 ...FLORENCE NOW PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS IN FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES TO CONTINUE TONIGHT... ...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 78.6W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and north of Salvo, North Carolina, including Albemarle Sound. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued. The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning from South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Cape Hatteras, including Albemarle Sound. The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Salvo North Carolina * Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Hatteras North Carolina * Pamlico Sound Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.6 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward to west-southwestward motion is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move farther inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina this evening, and across extreme eastern South Carolina tonight and Saturday. Florence will then move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next week. Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected tonight. Significant weakening is forecast over the weekend and into early next week while Florence moves farther inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and gust to to 72 mph (116 km/h) was recently reported at the National Ocean Service station at Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 972 mb (28.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground... The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...8-12 ft Cape Fear NC to Salvo NC...3-5 ft Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding. Rainfall totals exceeding 16 inches thus far have been reported at several locations across southeastern North Carolina. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through Saturday morning in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with tropical storm force wind gusts spreading well inland. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina through tonight, mainly near southeast coastal areas after dark. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Continuous training of rain in this area. Rain bands being fed by Atlantic. Gusting winds from 69-75 mph reported by radar.
FLORENCE A LIFE THREATENING FLOOD THREAT AND TORNADO THREAT 9/14/18 1128 AM EDT
920 WTNT31 KNHC 141440 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 61 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 ...FLORENCE JUST INLAND NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE... ...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 78.0W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Duck, North Carolina, including the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort. The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from Duck, North Carolina, south to Bogue Inlet, including the Albemarle Sound. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Bogue Inlet North Carolina * Pamlico Sound A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina * Bogue Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle Sound Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.0 West. Florence is moving toward the west-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward to west-southwestward motion is expected today through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move further inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina today and Saturday. Florence will then move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast later today and tonight. Significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into early next week while Florence moves farther inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). A wind gust to 75 mph (120 km/h) was recently reported at the National Ocean Service station in Wrightsville Beach, and a 72 mph (116 km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherflow site just north of Cape Fear at Federal Point. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground... Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft Salvo NC to Duck NC...2-4 ft Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding. Rainfall totals exceeding 14 inches thus far have been reported at several locations across southeastern North Carolina. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina today. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
ISAAC UPDATE 9/14/18 1114 AM EDT
803 WTNT34 KNHC 141431 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Isaac Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 ...BANDS OF RAIN FROM ISAAC CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 67.3W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Isaac was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 67.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn to the west-northwest is possible early next week if Isaac survives. On the forecast track, Isaac will move over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaac is forecast to gradually weaken over the next few days, and could degenerate into a tropical wave at any time. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the depression. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of up to 5 inches across southeast Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible across the remainder of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Leeward Islands and the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible across the south- central portion of the Dominican Republic, southwest Haiti and Jamaica. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
FLORENCE CONTINUES TO DRENCH THE CAROLINAS 9/14/18 1038 PM EDT
Sorry I am updating all this from my cell phone. I don't have a laptop today and I'm still dealing with isp problems with WiFi at work which prevents me from updating website from work. It's beenb a rough week thus far with doctors appointnent and these connection problems. I'll continue to update from home but with family and all it's not easy. So I will update here every so often to keep those of you who follow up to date on the tropics. RTW
Thursday, September 13, 2018
FLORENCE 11 PM UPDATE
487 WTNT31 KNHC 140258 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 59 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...THREAT OF FRESHWATER FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 76.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued north of Duck North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Florence was located by NOAA Doppler radar and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 76.8 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and west at a slow forward speed is expected through Friday, followed by a slow west-southwestward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence is expected to move inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina Friday and Saturday. Florence will then recurve across the western Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next week. Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft, coastal surface observations, and NOAA Doppler radar indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Florence moves inland on Friday. More significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into early next week while Florence moves farther inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon, North Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) with a gust to 100 mph (161 km/h). A storm surge of 10 feet above normal levels was reported by the National Weather Service office in Morehead City, North Carolina, at the Cherry Branch Ferry Terminal on the Neuse River, courtesy of the North Carolina Department of Transportation. The minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground... Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft Salvo NC to Duck NC...2-4 ft Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest Virginia...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring over portions of the coast of North Carolina and are expected to spread across portions of southeastern North Carolina and eastern South Carolina through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland across the remainder of the warning area through Saturday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern and southeastern North Carolina through Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
FLORENCE 5PM EDT SEPT 13, 2018 UPDATE
FLORENCE PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY NHC
923 WTNT21 KNHC 132032 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 58 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA * NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 76.2W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT.......170NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 200SE 180SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 76.2W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 76.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 34.1N 77.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.2N 78.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.9N 79.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 33.8N 79.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.8N 82.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 37.9N 82.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 42.7N 76.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 76.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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STILL NO FIX TO MY SITE BBUILDER NOT LOADING! 0300 PM EDT SEPT 13, 2018
RTW
FLORENCE UPDATE SEPT 13, 2018 1149 AM EDT
043 WTNT31 KNHC 131444 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 57 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018 ...HEAVY RAINBANDS WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.4N 75.5W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be nearing completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars from indicate that Florence was located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 75.5 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion, accompanied by a further decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through today. A turn to the west-northwest and west at an even slower forward speed is expected tonight and Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion is forecast Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coasts of North and South Carolina later today, then move near or over the coast of southern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina in the hurricane warning area tonight and Friday. A slow motion across portions of eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday night through Saturday night. Data from the aircraft and Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast, with weakening expected after the center moves inland. Florence is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). NOAA Buoy 41025, located near Diamond Shoals, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest Virginia...6 to 12 inches, isolated 24 inches. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area this evening or early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are already moving onshore within the warning area. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina through Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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