TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 2, 2018...0441 PM EDT

Leslie nearing hurricane strength.  Leslie remains only a threat to shipping!

I continue to monitor the South and northwest Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation.  

Models continue to hint development in the coming days and week.  

The track of this future storm is questionable.  Anywhere from the Gulf to the Bahamas for now.  However with high pressure in the Atlantic the likelyhood of a Gulf storm is possible...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 2, 2018... 0954 AM EDT

Leslie strengthens over night and is forecast to become a hurricane as it tracks slowly north and then east over the nirth Central Atlantic.  Only a threat to shipping!

Other than Leslie the Atlantic remains quiet at this time.

The south Caribbean is the focus of attention during the coming days and week as the forecast models are hinting on tropical development.

As always with a developing future system, the uncertainty to where this storm system will end up is like a million dollar question.  So always have a plan of action, and check your supplies!  

RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 1, 2018... 1041 AM EDT

The tropics have quiet down sfor now.  Other than Leslie over the open waters of the north Central Atlantic, there are two tropical waves not doing much.

Now that we enter October we focus our attention on the Caribbean.  Forecast models have been hinting on some development in the Southern Caribbean in the coming week.

This development is questionable at this time, but I will closely monitor this area during the coming days...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 28, 2018... 0955 AM EDT

Kirk continues to track away from the islands but squally and rainy conditions still persist as the storms remain east of the center.  

Kirk is gradually falling apart and could become an open trough at anytime as the upper level shear is present throughout the Caribbean...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 27, 2018... 0406 PM EDT

Exposed center of Kirk approaching the islands and the thunderstorms are right behind it.

We can call this the calm before the storm in a weird way since most tropical systems you experience the outer bands ahead of the center.  In this case the center is exposed so the islands will feel a calm until the center passes then a rapid change in the weather with heavy rains, squally conditions with strong gust to tropical storm force will occur.

I been noticing in the latest color satellite imagery that the thunderstorms east and northeast of center have caught up to center and are trying to rap around the northeast side of the center. 

This could be due to a slowing of the forward speed of the storm on approach to the islands or the wind shear relaxed a bit allowing for the thunderstorms to catch up with the center.  Regardless of this, the upper level conditions are still forecast to be strong in the Caribbean and weakening and possible dissipation of this system is possible...RTW

 

TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 27, 2018...1014 AM EDT

Kirk has not changed much over night since it is moving through a shear environment.

Strong westely and southwesterly wind shear continues to separate the thunderstorms from Kirk's enter of circulation.  In fact you can see that on this mornings visible satellite as daylight shines down on Earth.  

The center is totally exposed while all the thunderstorms are pushed off to the east of the center.  Kirk is forecast to weaken to a depression or an open wave as it moves across the islands if not sooner. Remember a healthy storm system has thunderstorms surrounding the center and this is not happening with Kirk.

However, those colder cloud tops east of center if they don't warm and weaken, will pass over the islands and bring strong Gusty winds to tropical storm force.

Localized heavy rains and squally conditions will spread across the islands later today...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 26, 2018 11.56 PM EDT

Kirk continues to gradually weaken as it tracks into a hostile shear environment near the Lesser Antilles and the Eastern Caribbean.  I mentioned this in my previous afternoon update.  Air Force Recon found rising pressure around 0800 PM EDT and now a weaker tropical storm at 11 PM EDT.

Satellite shows another small burst of convection as Kirk makes another attempt at reorganization and a temporary strengthening. This won't last long as relentless wind shear begins to separate the colder cloud tops from the center of circulation.   As the storm system weakens the wind field expands in coverage.

Squally conditions and localized heavy rains will begin to spread across the islands as early as tomorrow evening...RTW