Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

DAMAGE VIDEOS LINKS AND PICTURES FROM MICAHAEL RATH OCT 10, 2108

Gulf Coast Storm Center Retweeted

‏ @WFLAJosh

A look at what houses in #Mexico Beach, #Florida look like right now. This is a follow up from the previous clip posted. They are now submerged and were no match for #HurricaneMichael (via Tessa Talarico) #Hurricane #Michael #HurricaneMichael2018
https://twitter.com/i/status/1050098823194963968
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‏ @StormVisuals

Complete distraction to the northeastern side of this bank. #hurricaneMichael #panamacity

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NeEmergencyNewsWX Retweeted

‏ @FHPTampa

Hundreds of #FHP Troopers en route to the Panhandle from across Florida to help with #HURRICANEMICHAEL recovery efforts...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1050111898098774016

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Owen Anastas Retweeted

‏Verified account @bustedcoverage

Another video of the destruction from Mexico Beach, Florida

https://twitter.com/i/status/1050102541189550080

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Blazin3596 and Jonah Heinl liked

‏Verified account @WeatherNation

Here's evidence of storm surge at its worst. Brett Adair, an experienced field meteorologist, came upon a massive storm surge during #HurricaneMichael and abandoned his vehicle in search for higher ground.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1050095206157017088
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James Spann Retweeted

‏ @_heyychels

Trees are being snatched from the roots in Panama City, FL! All of my friends and family please be safe! #HurricaneMichael

https://twitter.com/i/status/1050090437757870083
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Gary Detman‏ @GaryDetmanNews 2h2 hours ago

Here's dramatic video of a home being obliterated as Hurricane Michael makes landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida, as a category 4 with 155 mph winds. @cbs12 http://bit.ly/2PlNRDT

https://twitter.com/i/status/1050097955489947650
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‏Verified account @DavidOvalle305

Hurricane Michael damage in the old historic district of Panama City

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‏ @cliftimestweet

Pine trees litter a yard in Port St. Joe on Garrison Avenue on Wednesday afternoon after Hurricane Michael made landfall in the Florida Panhandle. #HurricaneMichael @TB_Times

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‏ @JimRupe

More #HuricaneMichael damage. @kmbc @NickBenderKMBC @KrisKetzKMBC

https://twitter.com/i/status/1050106388561715200

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‏Verified account @ABC

Debris flies amidst heavy rains as #HurricaneMichael makes landfall in Panama City, Florida with 155mph winds. https://abcn.ws/2CCfB4A

https://twitter.com/i/status/1050103871941554177

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‏Verified account @Ginger_Zee

Behind the storm now and seeing the damage. Surreal. #Michael

https://twitter.com/i/status/1050101892167151616

NWS LIVE RADAR OCT 10 2018...1230 PM EDT

FROM NEWS 10 IN MIAMI BRIAN NORCROSS

‏ @bnorcrossWPLG

READY FOR #MICHAEL: In the path of the eye take every precaution possible. Get mattresses off beds and turn an interior hall into a bunker. Take everything you need to stay there-food, chairs, phones, rain-gear. Use the mattresses for cover and to block doors to exterior rooms.

THE EYE OF POTENTIALLY CASTASTROPIC MICHAEL NEARING THE COAST 1208 PM EDT

NOTED ON RADAR THAT TORNADO VORTEX DETECTED WITHIN THE EYE WALL BY RADAR. TAKE COVER THOSE OF YOU THAT CHOOSE TO RISK YOUR LIFE AND STAY BEHIND.

MICHAEL UPDATE OCT 10, 2018...1109 AM EDT

History is unfolding in the Florida Panhandle today as Major Hurricane Michael makes landfall over the Florida Panhandle. I was hearing to a NOAA researcher Stanley Goldenburg this morning, that was flying missions into Michael over night.

He said that Michael is a strong Category 4 borderline Category 5. He mentioned that this is unlike any hurricane ever impacting this coast line. Flight winds using a special small drone recorded 170 mph.

This is a catastrophic event about to unfold and I hope people evacuated and left the coast.

I will post live radar away from the landfall location so we can maintain a good feed in case of wind damage to radar in the path of Michael.

Tuesday, October 9, 2018

MICHAEL UPDATE OCT 9, 2018...1100 PM EDT

000
WTNT44 KNHC 100252
TCDAT4

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft this
afternoon and evening indicate that Michael has been undergoing a
rapid deepening phase with the pressure having dropped to 947 mb, a
decrease of 20 mb between 1800Z and 0200Z with most of those
pressures falls occurring during the past few hours. Michael's eye
has become more distinct in GOES-16 high-resolution infrared
satellite imagery, with a solid ring of cloud top temperatures
colder than -75 deg C surrounding the warming eye. Some cloud tops
in the eyewall have been as cold as -88C, which is very impressive
for a Gulf system. The peak 8000-ft flight-level winds measured by
the NOAA aircraft thus far has been 130 kt and the strongest SFMR
surface wind speed observed has been 110 kt in the same location as
the peak flight-level winds. Based on these wind data, along with a
central pressure of 947 mb, Michael's intensity has been increased
to 110 kt. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, along
with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC, support an
intensity of 115-127 kt. However, those also estimates also would
support a central pressure of about 935 mb, which the aircraft has
not measured thus far.

The initial motion estimate is due north, or 360/10 kt. Michael is
essentially on the previous advisory track, and there is no
significant change to the previous track forecast discussion. The
models have settled in a stable forecast pattern, which calls for
Michael to remain embedded within deep southerly flow for the next
24 hours between a  substantial ridge to the east and a highly
amplified mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the western and
central U.S. and northern Mexico. As a result, the dangerous
hurricane is expected to move northward to north-northeastward and
make landfall along the coast of the central panhandle of Florida by
late Wednesday afternoon. After landfall, increasing southwesterly
flow ahead of the approaching deep-layer trough is expected to
accelerate Michael toward the northeast through 48 h, with the
cyclone moving across the southeastern U.S. late Wednesday and
Thursday, and emerging over the western Atlantic by early Friday. A
continued northeastward motion at forward speeds of 30-40 kt is
forecast at 72-120 h when Michael is expected to be an extratropical
cyclone. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of
the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed
consensus models TVCN, TVCX, TCON, and NOAA-HCCA.

Similar to the previous advisory, the environment ahead of Michael
is expected to remain conducive for additional strengthening until
landfall occurs due to SSTs of at least 85 deg F beneath the
hurricane, combined with decreasing vertical wind shear along with
the shear vector shifting from current west-northwesterly to a less
hostile southwesterly component, which will be more along Michael's
forecast track. As a result, Michael is now explicitly forecast to
become a category 4 hurricane before landfall occurs. After
landfall, significant weakening is expected while Michael moves over
the southeastern United States, but the cyclone is forecast to
re-strengthen over the western Atlantic due to baroclinic forcing
after it merges with a front and becomes extratropical on Friday.
The new intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the IVCN,
HCCA, and FSSE consensus models throughout the 120-h period.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the hurricane
warning area by Wednesday morning, so all preparations should be
rushed to completion.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where
a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is
expected between Mexico Beach and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet
of inundation is possible. Water levels will rise well in advance of
the center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning
area should finish preparations to protect life and property today.

2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf
Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds
associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also
extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the
southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina,
and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for these
areas...NHC

MICHAEL UPDATE OCT 9, 2018...0500 PM EDT

000
WTNT44 KNHC 091443
TCDAT4

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Michael has continued to become better organized this morning.  The
hurricane has become more symmetric with the eye becoming more
apparent in infrared and visible satellite imagery.  Data from both
NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
that the minimum pressure has dropped to around 965 mb, and a blend
of the flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of
95 kt for this advisory.  With two aircraft in the storm, they have
been able to sample each of the four quadrants a couple of times
this morning, providing better confidence in the analyzed wind
field.  The planes actually passed through the eye around the same
time just before 1200 UTC, and reported that they could see one
another.

The outflow pattern has become better established over the
hurricane, but there is still a little evidence of some westerly
shear.  The shear should continue to decrease, and further
strengthening is expected until landfall on Wednesday.  Michael is
expected to become a major hurricane later today, and remain a
dangerous major hurricane through landfall.  Significant weakening
should occur as the center moves inland over the southeastern United
States, but re-strengthening as an extratropical low is expected
when the system moves over the western Atlantic.

Michael is moving between north-northwest and north at about 10 kt.
The track forecast reasoning is the same as the past several
advisories, as Michael should move generally northward through early
Wednesday between a ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer
trough over the central United States.  As the trough moves eastward
it will cause Michael to turn northeastward on Wednesday.  The
hurricane should then continue northeastward and accelerate as it
becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track guidance
is in very good agreement through the first 36-48 hours, with some
differences in forward speed thereafter.  The GFS and ECMWF have
trended slower after landfall, and the new NHC track has been
adjusted accordingly.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a
storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Water levels will
rise well in advance of the center of Michael, and residents within
the storm surge warning area should finish preparations to protect
life and property today.

2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf
Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds
associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also
extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia and South Carolina.

4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba during the next day or so....NHC

Tropical Outlook Oct 9, 2018...0426 PM EDT

Mean while in the Atlantic we have pesky Leslie still trapped in a blocked environment waiting for another stronger system to help me it out.

Nadine over the east Atlantic not a threat to anyone but shipping.
RTW

MICHAEL UPDATE OCT 9, 2018...1140 AM

Michael continues to strengthen dispite dry air and moderate shear.

Latest visible shows improvement in the inflow and outflow cloud structure. So it seems that the Cyclone in Intensifying as forecast.

Today is your last day for evacuation and complete preparations so don't waist anytime.

Life-threatening storm surge expected. Remember these Gulf basins allow for inland funneling of ocean water with no where for the water to flow back out to sea. Staying along the coast in these conditions will be deadly. So please heed the advice of emergency Management and local authorities...RTW

HURRICANE MICHAEL UPDATE OCT 9, 2018...0955 AM EDT

Michael managed to intensify over night dispite dry air intrusion and moderate upper level shear.

Michael's eye a collapsed this morning but it seems to be trying to reorganize.

Intensity Models still suggesting a Cat 3 by landfall tomorrow. Let's hope dry air and shear persist and a weaker system makes landfall.

Life-threatening storm surge for a large area so check with local media and EOC or National Hurricane Center for storm surge information and maps.

Today is your last day for evacuation and preparation, so make sure to get it all done today.

Board up with 5/8 plywood and make sure to secure them with long tacom screws and washers.

If you have shutters or panels then even better. DON'T USE TAPE FOR GLASS WINDOWS IT DOES NOT WORK!

MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH SUPPLIES TO LAST YOU TWO WEEKS.

RTW