Monday, October 22, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...OCT 22, 2018...1048 AM EDT
Tropical Waves:
1. A tropical wave near Puerto Rico is not showing sign of development at this time.
2. A tropical wave over Central America is exiting the Caribbean and entering the East pacific. This wave is not showing signs of development at this time.
Else where some models suggest some development in the coming weeks over the North Atlantic. If it did materialize it would not be a threat to the U.S.
Sunday, October 21, 2018
TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 21, 2018...0744 PM EDT
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 212035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 ...VICENTE WEAKENS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 97.9W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 97.9 West. Vicente is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the northwest is expected Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente is expected to remain just offshore or near the southern coast of Mexico through Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Vicente is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches over portions of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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000 WTPZ34 KNHC 212331 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 600 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILLA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO BEGINNING ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 107.1W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to San Blas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 107.1 West. Willa is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later tonight and Monday. Willa is expected to accelerate toward the north-northeast and move over or very near the Islas Marias on Tuesday and approach the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico in the hurricane watch area by Tuesday night. Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Willa is forecast to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.93 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves is possible along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area by Monday night or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Tuesday. RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall would cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to 4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible. This rainfall could also cause life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Large swells generated by Willa are beginning to affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Saturday, October 20, 2018
VICENTE AND WILLA OCT 20, 2018
...VICENTE A LITTLE STRONGER BUT REMAINS QUITE TINY...
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 202032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 ...VICENTE A LITTLE STRONGER BUT REMAINS QUITE TINY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 94.3W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM W OF TAPACHULA MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southeastern and southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 94.4 West. Vicente is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion should continue for the next day or so with a gradual turn to the northwest thereafter. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today and Sunday. A gradual weakening should begin thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Between Monday and Wednesday, Vicente or its remnants is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches along the coast of southwestern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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...WILLA FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE
OVERNIGHT...
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 202032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Willa Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 ...WILLA FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 105.8W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of west-central mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Willa was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 105.8 West. Willa is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and north at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through Tuesday. Willa could approach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico by Wednesday as it begins to accelerate toward the northeast. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Willa is expected to become a hurricane overnight or on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 20, 2018...0520 PM EDT
TROPICAL WAVES:
1. A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 55° AND 50° WEST IS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AND IT TRACKS IN THE LOWER LATITUDES.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 82° AND 80° WEST IS ALSO NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
ELSE WHERE IN THE TROPICS ALL REMAINS QUIET...RTW
Friday, October 19, 2018
TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 19, 2018...1046 AM EDT
Tropical Waves:
1. A wave in the Central Atlantic has split in two. It seems that the strong west southwesterly shear has caused the northern axis of this wave to separate and now a portion of the wave has become a tough. The strong wind shear has also tilted what is left of this wave southwest to northeast. Development is not expected at this time.
2. A Caribbean wave is also being affected by upper level shear development not expected at this time.
3. This wave over the Southern Yucatan and partly over the east Pacific has been absorbed by a New Tropical Depression 3-E.
Tropical Cyclone formation in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico is not expect during the next 5 days...RTW
Thursday, October 18, 2018
TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 18, 2018... 1037 AM EDT
There are three tropical waves across the Atlantic and Caribbean, but none of them are showing signs of development at this time. Westerly shear is preventing formation for now...RTW
Wednesday, October 17, 2018
TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 17, 2018...1111AM EDT
..TROPICAL WAVES... 1. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 15N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 04N to 16N between Africa and 30W. 2. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W from 21N southward. It is moving through the area of the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 08N to 21N between 50W and 63W. 3. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W from 20N and SE Cuba southward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow also is in the area. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida southward from 70W westward...
Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center https://www.nhc.noaa.govThere is nothing developing in the tropics at this time. All remains quiet...RTW
Tuesday, October 16, 2018
ATLANTIC SATELLITE REVIEW OCT 16, 2018...1235 PM EDT
An Area of showers and storms associated with a tropical wave is moving through an area of strong southwesterly upper level wind shear.
The tropics are relatively quiet let's hope it stays this way the rest of Oct and Nov.
RTW
The tropics are relatively quiet let's hope it stays this way the rest of Oct and Nov.
RTW
TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 16, 2018...0944 PM EDT
Storm investigation 94L continues it's westward track along the Northwest Hondrian coast.
This system remains a rain and flood threat for Central America.
This system will move inland without any development in the Caribbean. Then as it merges off the southwest coast of Central America and into the East Pacific where it may develop into a tropical cyclone as it tracks westward.
Else where the tropics remain quiet!
Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)
This system remains a rain and flood threat for Central America.
This system will move inland without any development in the Caribbean. Then as it merges off the southwest coast of Central America and into the East Pacific where it may develop into a tropical cyclone as it tracks westward.
Else where the tropics remain quiet!
Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)
Monday, October 15, 2018
TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 15, 2018...0419 PM EDT
Invest 94L is not organized. The low is off shore the northern
Nicaragua and the thunderstorms are displace to the southeast of the center. The proximity to land will prevent tropical cyclone formation. NHC is still giving this system a 40% chance within 48 hrs, and within five days.
Heavy rains will produce mudslides and flash floods over this region as it tracks westward over Honduras...RTW
Nicaragua and the thunderstorms are displace to the southeast of the center. The proximity to land will prevent tropical cyclone formation. NHC is still giving this system a 40% chance within 48 hrs, and within five days.
Heavy rains will produce mudslides and flash floods over this region as it tracks westward over Honduras...RTW
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