VICENTE AND WILLA OCT 20, 2018

...VICENTE A LITTLE STRONGER BUT REMAINS QUITE TINY... 

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 202032
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

...VICENTE A LITTLE STRONGER BUT REMAINS QUITE TINY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 94.3W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM W OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southeastern and southern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 94.4 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion
should continue for the next day or so with a gradual turn to the
northwest thereafter.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible
today and Sunday. A gradual weakening should begin thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Between Monday and Wednesday, Vicente or its remnants
is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to
10 inches along the coast of southwestern Mexico. This rainfall
could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within
mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila 

------------------------------------------------------------------- 

...WILLA FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE
OVERNIGHT... 

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 202032
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Willa Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

...WILLA FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE
OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 105.8W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of west-central mainland Mexico should
monitor the progress of Willa.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Willa was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 105.8 West.  Willa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A turn
toward the northwest and north at a slightly slower forward speed
is expected through Tuesday.  Willa could approach the coast of
west-central mainland Mexico by Wednesday as it begins to
accelerate toward the northeast.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Willa is expected to become a hurricane
overnight or on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg 

 

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 20, 2018...0520 PM EDT

TROPICAL WAVES:

1.  A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 55° AND 50° WEST IS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AND IT TRACKS IN THE LOWER LATITUDES.

2.  A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 82° AND 80° WEST IS ALSO NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

ELSE WHERE IN THE TROPICS ALL REMAINS QUIET...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 19, 2018...1046 AM EDT

Tropical Waves:

1.  A wave in the Central Atlantic has split in two.  It seems that the strong west southwesterly shear has caused the northern axis of this wave to separate and now a portion of the wave has become a tough.  The strong wind shear has also tilted what is left of this wave southwest to northeast.  Development is not expected at this time.

2.  A Caribbean wave is also being affected by upper level shear development not expected at this time.

3.  This wave over the Southern Yucatan and partly over the east Pacific has been absorbed by a New Tropical Depression 3-E.

Tropical Cyclone formation in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico is not expect during the next 5 days...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 18, 2018... 1037 AM EDT

There are three tropical waves across the Atlantic and Caribbean, but none of them are showing signs of development at this time.  Westerly shear is preventing formation for now...RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 17, 2018...1111AM EDT

..TROPICAL WAVES...

1. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 15N 
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is 
from 04N to 16N between Africa and 30W.

2. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W from 21N southward. It
is moving through the area of the islands of the eastern 
Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong 
rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 
08N to 21N between 50W and 63W. 

3. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W from 20N and SE Cuba 
southward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow also is in the 
area. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from the
Bahamas and the Straits of Florida southward from 70W westward...

Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

There is nothing developing in the tropics at this time.  All remains quiet...RTW

ATLANTIC SATELLITE REVIEW OCT 16, 2018...1235 PM EDT

An Area of showers and storms associated with a tropical wave is moving through an area of strong southwesterly upper level wind shear. 

The tropics are relatively quiet let's hope it stays this way the rest of Oct and Nov.
RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 16, 2018...0944 PM EDT

Storm investigation 94L continues it's westward track along the Northwest Hondrian coast.

This system remains a rain and flood threat for Central America. 

This system will move inland without any development in the Caribbean.  Then as it merges off the southwest coast of Central America and into the East Pacific where it may develop into a tropical cyclone as it tracks westward.

Else where the tropics remain quiet!

Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 15, 2018...0419 PM EDT

Invest 94L is not organized.  The low is off shore the northern
Nicaragua and the thunderstorms are displace to the southeast of the center.  The proximity to land will prevent tropical cyclone formation.  NHC is still giving this system a 40% chance within 48 hrs, and within five days.

Heavy rains will produce mudslides and flash floods over this region as it tracks westward over Honduras...RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 15, 2018...1104 AM EDT

A broad low pressure in the South Caribbean is producing showers and storms east of northeast Nicaragua.

This low is forecast to track west over the northern coast of Nicaragua and Honduras and could become a depression before moving onshore.  NHC is giving this system a 40% chance within 48 hrs and a 40% chance with 5-days.

This system is a flash flooding potential for Nicaragua and Honduras.

Else where there are a few areas of showers and storms in the Atlantic but upper level winds are unfavorable for development.
RTW