Tropical Wave:
1. A tropical wave near 45 west is not showing any signs of tropical cyclone organization at this time.
2. Invest 95L could become a sub-tropical or tropical cyclone at anytime. This storm system is not a threat to land.
Friday, October 26, 2018
TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 26, 2018...1119 AM EDT
Tropical Wave:
1. A tropical wave near 45 west is not showing any signs of tropical cyclone organization at this time.
2. Invest 95L could become a sub-tropical or tropical cyclone at anytime. This storm system is not a threat to land.
Thursday, October 25, 2018
TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 25, 2018...1029 AM EDT
Tropical Waves:
1. A tropical wave between 44-40 west latitude continues tracking westward in the lower latitudes. This wave is not showing signs of organization.
Storm Investigation 95L:
Invest 95L continues to show signs of organization and a sub-tropical or tropical cyclone can for from this system at anytime.
Regardless of development, this storm system will not be a threat to land. Several fronts moving off the east coast will help sweep this Strom system out to sea...RTW
Wednesday, October 24, 2018
TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 24, 2018... 1037 AM EDT
Tropical Wave:
1. A low latitude tropical wave near 35 degrees west is not showing any signs of organization.
Storm Investigation:
NHC is monitoring a large area of disorganized showers and storms about 900 miles east of the Leeward Islands. NHC is giving this system a formation chance of 30% within 48hrs and 60% within 5-days.
Regardless of sub-tropical or tropical development this system will not be a concern for the Islands or the U.S. east coast.
This system is forecast to track slowly northward then a turn westward. As this system tracks westward a front moving off the east coast will merge with this system and sweep it out to sea...RTW
Tuesday, October 23, 2018
WILLA OCT 23, 2018...1010 PM EDT
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 232343 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 600 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 ...EYE OF WILLA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... ...DO NOT VENTURE OUT INTO THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE SINCE HAZARDOUS WINDS WILL SUDDENLY INCREASE AS THE EYE PASSES... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 106.0W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to San Blas * North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 106.0 West. Willa is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster motion toward the northeast is expected tonight. On the forecast track, the eye of Willa will make landfall along the coast of west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area within the next hour or so. Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before Willa crosses the coast of Mexico. Very rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and Willa is expected to dissipate over northern Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is occurring along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa and Nayarit, with the highest surge likely to occur near and to the south of where the center of Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches, across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca, southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches possible. WIND: Hurricane conditions will gradually subside in Las Islas Marias. Hurricane conditions will continue to spread into the hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico this evening. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning area through tonight. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 23, 2018
Tropical Waves:
1. There is only one wave in the Central Caribbean and it is not showing g any signs of organization.
Storm Investigations:
I mentioned a few days ago in one of my blog post that some models were hinting at possible development in the north Central Atlantic. Well NHC is now monitoring this area of the Atlantic and gives it a 20% chance for formation within 5-days.
Monday, October 22, 2018
EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE UPDATE OCT 22, 2018
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 221444 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 ...VICENTE LOOKING LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING... ...STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 100.8W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 100.8 West. Vicente is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a turn to the northwest is expected today followed by a turn to the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Vicente is expected to become a tropical depression by tonight or Tuesday. The cyclone's circulation is expected to dissipate near the southwestern coast of Mexico by Wednesday. Vicente is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through Wednesday over portions of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Latto
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 221446 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018 ...WILLA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 107.2W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to San Blas * North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 107.2 West. Willa is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. Willa is forecast to accelerate toward the north-northeast and move over or very near the Islas Marias early Tuesday and make landfall along the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico in the hurricane warning area Tuesday afternoon or evening. Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Willa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is still possible today. Slight weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday, but Willa is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night, especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches, across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to 4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight and Tuesday. SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...OCT 22, 2018...1048 AM EDT
Tropical Waves:
1. A tropical wave near Puerto Rico is not showing sign of development at this time.
2. A tropical wave over Central America is exiting the Caribbean and entering the East pacific. This wave is not showing signs of development at this time.
Else where some models suggest some development in the coming weeks over the North Atlantic. If it did materialize it would not be a threat to the U.S.
Sunday, October 21, 2018
TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 21, 2018...0744 PM EDT
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 212035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 ...VICENTE WEAKENS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 97.9W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 97.9 West. Vicente is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the northwest is expected Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente is expected to remain just offshore or near the southern coast of Mexico through Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Vicente is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches over portions of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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000 WTPZ34 KNHC 212331 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 600 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILLA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO BEGINNING ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 107.1W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to San Blas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 107.1 West. Willa is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later tonight and Monday. Willa is expected to accelerate toward the north-northeast and move over or very near the Islas Marias on Tuesday and approach the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico in the hurricane watch area by Tuesday night. Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Willa is forecast to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.93 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves is possible along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area by Monday night or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Tuesday. RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall would cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to 4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible. This rainfall could also cause life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Large swells generated by Willa are beginning to affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Saturday, October 20, 2018
VICENTE AND WILLA OCT 20, 2018
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 202032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 ...VICENTE A LITTLE STRONGER BUT REMAINS QUITE TINY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 94.3W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM W OF TAPACHULA MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southeastern and southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 94.4 West. Vicente is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion should continue for the next day or so with a gradual turn to the northwest thereafter. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today and Sunday. A gradual weakening should begin thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Between Monday and Wednesday, Vicente or its remnants is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches along the coast of southwestern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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...WILLA FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE
OVERNIGHT...
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 202032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Willa Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 ...WILLA FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 105.8W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of west-central mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Willa was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 105.8 West. Willa is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and north at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through Tuesday. Willa could approach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico by Wednesday as it begins to accelerate toward the northeast. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Willa is expected to become a hurricane overnight or on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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