Saturday, October 27, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 27, 2018... 0114 PM EDT


Tropical Wave:

1. A westward moving tropical wave between 50°- 45° west is still not showing signs of organization.




SUB-TROPICAL STORM OSCAR:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 271444
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018

...OSCAR TURNS TOWARD THE WEST AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 48.4W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 48.4 West. The storm is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
west-southwest is anticipated later today, followed by a turn back
toward the west on Sunday. Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward
the north and then the northeast by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Oscar could
become a hurricane after transitioning to a tropical storm later
this weekend or early next week.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky 


 


Friday, October 26, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 26, 2018...1119 AM EDT


Tropical Wave:

1. A tropical wave near 45 west is not showing any signs of tropical cyclone organization at this time.


2. Invest 95L could become a sub-tropical or tropical cyclone at anytime.  This storm system is not a threat to land.






Thursday, October 25, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 25, 2018...1029 AM EDT


Tropical Waves:

1.  A tropical wave between 44-40 west latitude continues tracking westward in the lower latitudes.  This wave is not showing signs of organization.


Storm Investigation 95L:

Invest 95L continues to show signs of organization and a sub-tropical or tropical cyclone can for from this system at anytime.

Regardless of development, this storm system will not be a threat to land.  Several fronts moving off the east coast will help sweep this Strom system out to sea...RTW





Wednesday, October 24, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 24, 2018... 1037 AM EDT


Tropical Wave:
1.  A low latitude tropical wave near 35 degrees west is not showing any signs of organization.


Storm Investigation:
NHC is monitoring a large area of disorganized showers and storms about 900 miles east of the Leeward Islands.  NHC is giving this system a formation chance of 30% within 48hrs and 60% within 5-days.

Regardless of sub-tropical or tropical development this system will not be a concern for the Islands or the U.S. east coast.

This system is forecast to track slowly northward then a turn westward.  As this system tracks westward a front moving off the east coast will merge with this system and sweep it out to sea...RTW




Tuesday, October 23, 2018

WILLA OCT 23, 2018...1010 PM EDT

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 232343
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
600 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...EYE OF WILLA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST
OF MEXICO...
...DO NOT VENTURE OUT INTO THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE SINCE
HAZARDOUS WINDS WILL SUDDENLY INCREASE AS THE EYE PASSES...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 106.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 106.0 West.  Willa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A faster motion
toward the northeast is expected tonight.  On the forecast track,
the eye of Willa will make landfall along the coast of west-central
Mexico within the hurricane warning area within the next hour or so.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is expected before
Willa crosses the coast of Mexico.  Very rapid weakening is expected
after landfall, and Willa is expected to dissipate over northern
Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is occurring along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, with the highest surge likely to occur near and to the
south of where the center of Willa makes landfall.  Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico.  This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions will gradually subside in Las Islas
Marias. Hurricane conditions will continue to spread into the
hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico this
evening. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of
mainland Mexico within the warning area through tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next day or two.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila 

 

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 23, 2018


Tropical Waves:
1. There is only one wave in the Central Caribbean and it is not showing g any signs of organization.


Storm Investigations:
I mentioned a few days ago in one of my blog post that some models were hinting at possible development in the north Central Atlantic. Well NHC is now monitoring this area of the Atlantic and gives it a 20% chance for formation within 5-days.

Monday, October 22, 2018

EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE UPDATE OCT 22, 2018



000
WTPZ33 KNHC 221444
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...VICENTE LOOKING LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...
...STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 100.8W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 100.8 West.  Vicente is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a turn
to the northwest is expected today followed by a turn to the
north-northwest on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Vicente is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico
on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Vicente is expected to become a tropical
depression by tonight or Tuesday.  The cyclone's circulation is
expected to dissipate near the southwestern coast of Mexico by
Wednesday.

Vicente is a small tropical cyclone.  Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through Wednesday
over portions of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico.
This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides within mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Latto




000
WTPZ34 KNHC 221446
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
900 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...WILLA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 107.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 107.2 West.  Willa is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today.  Willa is forecast to accelerate toward
the north-northeast and move over or very near the Islas Marias
early Tuesday and make landfall along the southwestern coast of
mainland Mexico in the hurricane warning area Tuesday afternoon or
evening.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts.  Willa is a
category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some strengthening is still possible today.  Slight weakening is
forecast to begin on Tuesday, but Willa is expected to be an
extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of
Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday
night, especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa
makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico.  This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to
4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua,
and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Tuesday morning.  Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight
and Tuesday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown









TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...OCT 22, 2018...1048 AM EDT


Tropical Waves:

1.  A tropical wave near Puerto Rico is not showing sign of development at this time.

2.  A tropical wave over Central America is exiting the Caribbean and entering the East pacific.  This wave is not showing signs of development at this time.

Else where some models suggest some development in the coming weeks over the North Atlantic.  If it did materialize it would not be a threat to the U.S.



Sunday, October 21, 2018

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 21, 2018...0744 PM EDT



000
WTPZ33 KNHC 212035
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...VICENTE WEAKENS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 97.9W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 97.9 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a gradual turn
toward the northwest is expected Monday night.  On the forecast
track, the center of Vicente is expected to remain just offshore or
near the southern coast of Mexico through Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Vicente is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression by Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Vicente or its remnants is expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches over portions of
Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico.  This rainfall
could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within
mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
---------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 212331
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
600 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILLA CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 107.1W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 107.1 West. Willa is moving
toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected later tonight and Monday. Willa is expected to
accelerate toward the north-northeast and move over or very near the
Islas Marias on Tuesday and approach the southwestern coast of
mainland Mexico in the hurricane watch area by Tuesday night.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Willa is an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected during
the next day or so, and Willa is forecast to be a dangerous
hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.93 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves is possible along portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area by Monday night or early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico.  This rainfall would cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2
to 4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast
Chihuahua, and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches
possible. This rainfall could also cause life-threatening flash
flooding.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa are beginning to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi