1. This low latitude wave is not showing signs of organization. at this time
2. This wave is also not showing signs of organization at this time.
tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Wednesday...RTW
000 WTNT31 KNHC 282056 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018 ...OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 55.5W ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 55.5 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued westward motion is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by early Monday, with a northwestward motion forecast on Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north or north-northeast with an increase in forward speed. The hurricane is then expected to accelerate quickly toward the northeast through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)
000 WTNT31 KNHC 272032 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 ...OSCAR EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 50.7W ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM ESE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 50.7 West. The storm is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest is anticipated overnight, followed by a turn back toward the west on Sunday. Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north and then the northeast by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Additional strengthening is expected, and Oscar could become a hurricane after transitioning to a tropical storm later this weekend or early next week. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Courtesy of Ralph's Tropical Weather(RTW)
000 WTNT31 KNHC 271444 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 ...OSCAR TURNS TOWARD THE WEST AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 48.4W ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM ESE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 48.4 West. The storm is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest is anticipated later today, followed by a turn back toward the west on Sunday. Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north and then the northeast by early next week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Oscar could become a hurricane after transitioning to a tropical storm later this weekend or early next week. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 232343 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 600 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 ...EYE OF WILLA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... ...DO NOT VENTURE OUT INTO THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE SINCE HAZARDOUS WINDS WILL SUDDENLY INCREASE AS THE EYE PASSES... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 106.0W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to San Blas * North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 106.0 West. Willa is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster motion toward the northeast is expected tonight. On the forecast track, the eye of Willa will make landfall along the coast of west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area within the next hour or so. Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before Willa crosses the coast of Mexico. Very rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and Willa is expected to dissipate over northern Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is occurring along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa and Nayarit, with the highest surge likely to occur near and to the south of where the center of Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches, across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca, southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches possible. WIND: Hurricane conditions will gradually subside in Las Islas Marias. Hurricane conditions will continue to spread into the hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico this evening. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning area through tonight. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 221444 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 ...VICENTE LOOKING LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING... ...STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 100.8W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 100.8 West. Vicente is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a turn to the northwest is expected today followed by a turn to the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Vicente is expected to become a tropical depression by tonight or Tuesday. The cyclone's circulation is expected to dissipate near the southwestern coast of Mexico by Wednesday. Vicente is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through Wednesday over portions of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Latto
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 221446 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018 ...WILLA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 107.2W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to San Blas * North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 107.2 West. Willa is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. Willa is forecast to accelerate toward the north-northeast and move over or very near the Islas Marias early Tuesday and make landfall along the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico in the hurricane warning area Tuesday afternoon or evening. Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Willa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is still possible today. Slight weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday, but Willa is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night, especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches, across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to 4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight and Tuesday. SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown