OSCAR UPDATE OCT 29, 2018...EDT

Hurricane Oscar:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 291434
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 29 2018

...OSCAR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
...NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 58.4W
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 58.4 West.  Oscar is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn toward the
northwest at a slower forward speed is expected later today,
followed by a motion toward the north tonight.  On Tuesday, Oscar is
forecast to begin moving toward the north-northeast with an increase
in forward speed.  The hurricane is then expected to accelerate
quickly toward the northeast through the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast through
Tuesday, followed by gradual weakening thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 29, 2018...1123 AM EDT

Tropical waves:
1.  A westward moving tropical between 35 and 30 degrees west is producing strong showers and storms south of the ITCZ or Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.  I will monitor it closely however, upper level winds ahead of this wave are hostile at this time.

2.  Another westward wave is between 54 and 50 degrees west and this wave is not showing any signs of organization...RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 28, 2018...

Tropical Waves:

1. This low latitude wave is not showing signs of organization. at this time

2. This wave is also not showing signs of organization at this time.

tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Wednesday...RTW

OSCAR UPDATE 0547 PM EDT...0547 PM EDT

Hurricane Oscar:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 282056
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018
500 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018

...OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 55.5W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 55.5 West.  Oscar is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued westward motion
is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest
by early Monday, with a northwestward motion forecast on Monday
afternoon. By Tuesday, Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the
north or north-northeast with an increase in forward speed.  The
hurricane is then expected to accelerate quickly toward the
northeast through the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, followed by gradual weakening thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart 

 Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)

 Tropical Tidbits

OSCAR UPDATE OCT 27, 2018...0703 PM EDT

000
WTNT31 KNHC 272032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018
500 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018

...OSCAR EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 50.7W
ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 50.7 West. The storm is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
west-southwest is anticipated overnight, followed by a turn back
toward the west on Sunday. Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward
the north and then the northeast by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Additional
strengthening is expected, and Oscar could become a hurricane after
transitioning to a tropical storm later this weekend or early next
week.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky 

Courtesy of Ralph's Tropical Weather(RTW) 

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 27, 2018... 0114 PM EDT

Tropical Wave:

1. A westward moving tropical wave between 50°- 45° west is still not showing signs of organization.

SUB-TROPICAL STORM OSCAR:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 271444
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018

...OSCAR TURNS TOWARD THE WEST AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 48.4W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 48.4 West. The storm is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
west-southwest is anticipated later today, followed by a turn back
toward the west on Sunday. Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward
the north and then the northeast by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Oscar could
become a hurricane after transitioning to a tropical storm later
this weekend or early next week.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky 

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 26, 2018...1119 AM EDT

Tropical Wave:

1. A tropical wave near 45 west is not showing any signs of tropical cyclone organization at this time.

2. Invest 95L could become a sub-tropical or tropical cyclone at anytime.  This storm system is not a threat to land.

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 25, 2018...1029 AM EDT

Tropical Waves:

1.  A tropical wave between 44-40 west latitude continues tracking westward in the lower latitudes.  This wave is not showing signs of organization.

Storm Investigation 95L:

Invest 95L continues to show signs of organization and a sub-tropical or tropical cyclone can for from this system at anytime.

Regardless of development, this storm system will not be a threat to land.  Several fronts moving off the east coast will help sweep this Strom system out to sea...RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 24, 2018... 1037 AM EDT

Tropical Wave:
1.  A low latitude tropical wave near 35 degrees west is not showing any signs of organization.

Storm Investigation:
NHC is monitoring a large area of disorganized showers and storms about 900 miles east of the Leeward Islands.  NHC is giving this system a formation chance of 30% within 48hrs and 60% within 5-days.

Regardless of sub-tropical or tropical development this system will not be a concern for the Islands or the U.S. east coast.

This system is forecast to track slowly northward then a turn westward.  As this system tracks westward a front moving off the east coast will merge with this system and sweep it out to sea...RTW

WILLA OCT 23, 2018...1010 PM EDT

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 232343
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
600 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...EYE OF WILLA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST
OF MEXICO...
...DO NOT VENTURE OUT INTO THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE SINCE
HAZARDOUS WINDS WILL SUDDENLY INCREASE AS THE EYE PASSES...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 106.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 106.0 West.  Willa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A faster motion
toward the northeast is expected tonight.  On the forecast track,
the eye of Willa will make landfall along the coast of west-central
Mexico within the hurricane warning area within the next hour or so.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is expected before
Willa crosses the coast of Mexico.  Very rapid weakening is expected
after landfall, and Willa is expected to dissipate over northern
Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is occurring along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, with the highest surge likely to occur near and to the
south of where the center of Willa makes landfall.  Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico.  This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions will gradually subside in Las Islas
Marias. Hurricane conditions will continue to spread into the
hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico this
evening. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of
mainland Mexico within the warning area through tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next day or two.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila 

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 23, 2018

Tropical Waves:
1. There is only one wave in the Central Caribbean and it is not showing g any signs of organization.

Storm Investigations:
I mentioned a few days ago in one of my blog post that some models were hinting at possible development in the north Central Atlantic. Well NHC is now monitoring this area of the Atlantic and gives it a 20% chance for formation within 5-days.