TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 9, 2018...1233 AM EST

Tropical Waves:

1. A tropical wave near 26-25 degrees west is not showing signs of organization at this time.

2. A tropical wave near 48-47 degrees west is passing through  a westerly shear environment.  There are no sign of organization at this time.

3.  A tropical wave near 78-77 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization at this time.

4.  A tropical wave near 96-95 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization at this time.  This wave over Mexico and a portion of the Bay of Capache will be moving out of the area.  This will be the last update on this wave.

Troughs:

A trough near 68-67 degrees west is no longer Interacting with trough north of the Eastern Bahamas.

The trough near the Bahamas seems to be producing showers and storms to the east of the axis. 

Area being watched by RTW:

I am monitoring an area east of the northeast Leeward extending northwestward to several 100 miles north of Puerto Rico.  Although nothing is showing right now some models are hinting at low pressure developing in the region in the week to come.
Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 8, 2018...0951 AM EST

Tropical Waves:

1.  A westward moving tropical wave near 20 degrees West is now void of any thunderstorms.  There are no signs of organization.

2.  A westward moving tropical wave near 48 degrees West  has some showers along the north a axis of the wave.  There are no signs of organization.

3.  A westward moving tropical wave near 73 degrees West is also void of any thunderstorms.  There are no signs of organization.

4.  A westward moving tropical wave across 86-85 degrees west is also void of any thunderstorms.  There are no signs of organization.

Troughs:

A surface trough near 65-64 degrees West is producing showers and storms along the northern axis of the trough just to the east of Puerto Rico.  This surface trough seems to be Interacting with an upper level trough northeast of the Bahamas and north of Puerto Rico.  Heavy rains with Gusty winds will spread over Puerto Rico later today as this trough tracks slowly westward.

Elsewhere in the tropics all remains quiet.
RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 7, 2018...1137 AM EST

Monzoon Trough:

A strong area of showers and storms off the southwest African coast is rather unusual for this time of the season.  However, conditions south of the 10 degree north is where the monzoon Trough is located and that has been one of the fuel source this season that has enhanced storms in this region.  There are no signs of development, but I will monitor it as it tracks westward.

Tropical Waves:

1.  A westward moving tropical wave located near 43 degrees west is not showing signs of tropical cyclone formation.

2. A westward moving tropical wave near 68-67 degrees west is also not showing signs of formation.

3.  A westward moving tropical wave near 82 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization.

Surface Trough:

There is a surface trough near 57 degrees west that is firing up showers and storms to the southeast of the troughs axis.  Southwesterly shear over the Southern Windward islands will prevent any organization at this time.
RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 6, 2018...0957 AM EDT.

There are three tropical waves across the Atlantic and in the Caribbean.  None of these waves are showing signs of organization at this time...RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 5, 2018...0916 AM EST

Tropical Waves:

1.  A westward moving tropical wave near 36 degree west.  Showers and storm are east of the waves southern acis along the ITCZ (Inter-tropical convergence zone).  There no signs of tropical cyclone formation.

2.  A westward moving tropical wave near 58-57 degrees west is not showing signs of organization.

3.  A westward moving tropical wave near 73 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization.

Eslewhere in the Atlantic all remains quiet through Wednesday...RTW

Maps courtesy of Intellicast WSI

SET CLOCK BACK AN HOUR TONIGHT

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 3, 2018...0114 PM EDT

There are three tropical waves across the Atlantic and Caribbean.  None of these waves are showing signs of tropical development.
RTW

 

radar detecting water spout off shore Florida west coast

Water spouts detected off shore central Florida west coast.  Remember if any of these water spouts make it on shore it becomes a tornado.  There was four detected earlier.

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 2, 2018...1028 AM EDT

Tropical Wave:
1.  A westward moving tropical wave near 28 degrees west is not showing g signs of organization.

2.  A westward moving tropical wave near 58 degrees west is not showing signs of organization.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Sunday...RTW

Please note tropical waves added to this surface map were added by myself.  I am borrowing their map until I can come e up with another map of my own.
Here is a link to there site:
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticAnalysis.aspx

REMINDER TO SET YOU CLOCK BACK AN HOUR WEEKEND

BROKEN LINE OF STORMS STILL TRACKING EAST

Latest radar still showing strong but broken line of storms over the northeast Gulf, Panhandle and Alabama tracking east.  This line is prompting Marine warnings that could become severe thunderstorm warnings as it moves on shore.  Just a heads up!  RTW

COOLER, WETTER AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST THIS WINTER

This is a precursor of what to expect this winter with EL Nino conditions.

A cold Front dropping a frontal boundary over the warm Gulf waters clashing with cold air from the north.

This will produce pre-front squall lines ahead of frontal boundary and enhance the severe storm chance with the possibility of tornadoes.

So unlike this past winter where we had La Nina conditions and dry weather and warmer winter this will be the opposite, wetter with severe weather, and colder temps...RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 1, 2018...1031 AM EDT

Tropical Waves:

1.  A westward moving tropical wave near 23 degrees west is not showing signs of organization.

2.  Another westward moving tropical wave near 52 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Saturday.