TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 11, 2018...0537 PM EST

Tropical Waves:

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 29W and south of
09N. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted along and
in the vicinity of the wave, enhanced by the proximity of the 
ITCZ.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 41W south of 
10N. Scattered moderate convection is present 120 nm on either 
side of the wave axis. This activity is enhanced by the proximity
of the ITCZ.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 55W and south of
16N. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 13N between 
51W and 57W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along Central America and the
EPAC along 88W. No convection is observed with this wave at this
time.

Storm Investigation

000

ABNT20 KNHC 111739
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers activity has increased and become a little better organized
today in association with a tropical wave located about 350 miles
east-southeast of the Leeward Islands.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to gradually become more conducive for development by
Tuesday, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is expected to form
by the middle of the week. The system will move westward to
west-northwestward for the next few days, passing near or north of
the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern
Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 10, 2018...EST

I am on a trip with family so I will not be writing up my own tropicak outlook, so I am borrowing NHC's for now.
RTW

Area being monitored:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101729
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Significant development of this system is not expected during the
next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds. However, these
winds are forecast to lessen by Tuesday, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone could form during the middle of next week while
the system moves near or north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the
southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Waves:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/25W from 11N 
southward. This wave has been added to the 10/1200 UTC map
analysis based on long-loop satellite imagery and model guidance.
ITCZ-related precipitation is nearby.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 12N
southward. This wave has been re-positioned based on long-loop
satellite imagery and model guidance. ITCZ-related precipitation
is nearby.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W from 15N 
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong 
rainshowers are from 12N to 16N between 43W and 48W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from
14N to 17N between 34W and 41W.

A surface trough is along 56W/57W from 08N to 16N. Scattered
moderate to strong rainshowers are from 12N to 15N between 54W
and 58W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
elsewhere from 12N to 20N between 50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W from 20N 
southward. The upper level trough, that passes across Hispaniola,
into the central Caribbean Sea, to the east central coast of 
Nicaragua, is on top of the area of the tropical wave. Isolated 
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 17N southward from
80W westward, to the coastal sections and interior sections of 
Honduras and Nicaragua. 

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 9, 2018...1233 AM EST

Tropical Waves:

1. A tropical wave near 26-25 degrees west is not showing signs of organization at this time.

2. A tropical wave near 48-47 degrees west is passing through  a westerly shear environment.  There are no sign of organization at this time.

3.  A tropical wave near 78-77 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization at this time.

4.  A tropical wave near 96-95 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization at this time.  This wave over Mexico and a portion of the Bay of Capache will be moving out of the area.  This will be the last update on this wave.

Troughs:

A trough near 68-67 degrees west is no longer Interacting with trough north of the Eastern Bahamas.

The trough near the Bahamas seems to be producing showers and storms to the east of the axis. 

Area being watched by RTW:

I am monitoring an area east of the northeast Leeward extending northwestward to several 100 miles north of Puerto Rico.  Although nothing is showing right now some models are hinting at low pressure developing in the region in the week to come.
Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 8, 2018...0951 AM EST

Tropical Waves:

1.  A westward moving tropical wave near 20 degrees West is now void of any thunderstorms.  There are no signs of organization.

2.  A westward moving tropical wave near 48 degrees West  has some showers along the north a axis of the wave.  There are no signs of organization.

3.  A westward moving tropical wave near 73 degrees West is also void of any thunderstorms.  There are no signs of organization.

4.  A westward moving tropical wave across 86-85 degrees west is also void of any thunderstorms.  There are no signs of organization.

Troughs:

A surface trough near 65-64 degrees West is producing showers and storms along the northern axis of the trough just to the east of Puerto Rico.  This surface trough seems to be Interacting with an upper level trough northeast of the Bahamas and north of Puerto Rico.  Heavy rains with Gusty winds will spread over Puerto Rico later today as this trough tracks slowly westward.

Elsewhere in the tropics all remains quiet.
RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 7, 2018...1137 AM EST

Monzoon Trough:

A strong area of showers and storms off the southwest African coast is rather unusual for this time of the season.  However, conditions south of the 10 degree north is where the monzoon Trough is located and that has been one of the fuel source this season that has enhanced storms in this region.  There are no signs of development, but I will monitor it as it tracks westward.

Tropical Waves:

1.  A westward moving tropical wave located near 43 degrees west is not showing signs of tropical cyclone formation.

2. A westward moving tropical wave near 68-67 degrees west is also not showing signs of formation.

3.  A westward moving tropical wave near 82 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization.

Surface Trough:

There is a surface trough near 57 degrees west that is firing up showers and storms to the southeast of the troughs axis.  Southwesterly shear over the Southern Windward islands will prevent any organization at this time.
RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 6, 2018...0957 AM EDT.

There are three tropical waves across the Atlantic and in the Caribbean.  None of these waves are showing signs of organization at this time...RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 5, 2018...0916 AM EST

Tropical Waves:

1.  A westward moving tropical wave near 36 degree west.  Showers and storm are east of the waves southern acis along the ITCZ (Inter-tropical convergence zone).  There no signs of tropical cyclone formation.

2.  A westward moving tropical wave near 58-57 degrees west is not showing signs of organization.

3.  A westward moving tropical wave near 73 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization.

Eslewhere in the Atlantic all remains quiet through Wednesday...RTW

Maps courtesy of Intellicast WSI

SET CLOCK BACK AN HOUR TONIGHT

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 3, 2018...0114 PM EDT

There are three tropical waves across the Atlantic and Caribbean.  None of these waves are showing signs of tropical development.
RTW

 

radar detecting water spout off shore Florida west coast

Water spouts detected off shore central Florida west coast.  Remember if any of these water spouts make it on shore it becomes a tornado.  There was four detected earlier.

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 2, 2018...1028 AM EDT

Tropical Wave:
1.  A westward moving tropical wave near 28 degrees west is not showing g signs of organization.

2.  A westward moving tropical wave near 58 degrees west is not showing signs of organization.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Sunday...RTW

Please note tropical waves added to this surface map were added by myself.  I am borrowing their map until I can come e up with another map of my own.
Here is a link to there site:
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticAnalysis.aspx

REMINDER TO SET YOU CLOCK BACK AN HOUR WEEKEND

BROKEN LINE OF STORMS STILL TRACKING EAST

Latest radar still showing strong but broken line of storms over the northeast Gulf, Panhandle and Alabama tracking east.  This line is prompting Marine warnings that could become severe thunderstorm warnings as it moves on shore.  Just a heads up!  RTW