TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOW CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT

A trough of low pressure in the middle levels of the atmosphere is producing fasting moving showers over the Florida.  Atmospheric conditions and proximity to land is hindering development at this time.  This system has a low chance 10% for sub-tropical or tropical development.  After reviewing models they are also suggesting a low chance for development.  Main concern is heavy rains and storms at time.
RTW

TROUH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAHAMAS IS BEING MONITORED

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
925 AM EDT Wed May 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Bahamas is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Little
development is expected during the next couple of days as the
system moves generally northwestward toward the Florida Peninsula.
Subsequently, some slow development is possible as the disturbance
turns northeastward and moves over the western Atlantic.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over
portions of the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula during the next
couple of days.  The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 10 AM EDT Thursday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

Strong easterly winds is beginning to draw in moisture on shore the east coast of Florida as this trough tracks west-northwest to a northwest.  These showers will be fast moving and at times could be heavy. 

Development is not out of the question, but if it were to occur, it would be as this system re-curves back to the northeast and over the west Atlantic waters. RTW

A NON TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE BAHAMAS

A non tropical disturbance near the Eastern Bahamas associated with a mid to upper level low could enhance rain and storm chance for the Bahamas and Florida in the coming days.

Could this system become a sub- tropical storm or tropical depression?  That can't be ruled out,  however, models are not hinting at strong development at this time.  I will monitor it closely as it tracks west-northwestward.

Notice to my viewers...
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW
Will begin regular tropical updates starting May 15, 2019.  So check back daily after the May 15 for your full tropical updates.

CLOUD TEMPERATURE SATELLITE

EURO MODEL

AMERICAN GFS MODEL

Ligtning map

POTENT LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA

Potent line of storms moving over northern and central Florida.  There are tornado watch boxes for a portion of Florida and the east coast so make sure you check Storm Prediction Center for updates and listen to local media for updated.

This line is producing plenty of lightning within the squall line, Gusty winds and isolated and an tornado is not out of the question.

If you have a NOAA weather radio in make sure to keep it in alert mode.

Day-1 Severe weather outlook

 Still Wide view radar

 Lightning map

 Color satellite shows the squall line extended I further south into Eastern Gulf.

UPDATED SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

Severe weather will continued to spread east as this upper level trough tracks eastward.  see the latest SPC maps below.  Stay tuned to your local media and NWS office.

DAY-1 OUTLOOK

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

 DAY-2 OUTLOOK

 GFS FORECAST MODEL

 COLOR INFRARED SATELLITE

 RADAR STILL SHOT

DAY 1-3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

DAY-1 OUTLOOK
A cut-off upper level trough of low pressure tracking east will bring enhanced chance for severe weather for a portion of Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas today.

DAY-2 OUTLOOK
Tomorrow the severe weather threat will spread east over Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and a portion of the western tip of the Florida Panhandle.

DAY-3 OUTLOOK
On Friday the severe weather threat will spread over a portion of Georgia and Florida north to the Carolinas and Virginia.  Stay up to date on weather conditions and advisories in the days to come...  RTW

SEVERE STORM DAY 2 AND 3 OUTLOOK

Another storm system will enhance severe weather across Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi in the coming days.