..SLIGHT RISK SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK MARCH 7, 2024..

 

Slight risk for severe weather today so stay tuned to the Storm Prediction Center for the latest updates.

RTW

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK (SLIGHT RISK) STAY ALERT!

SLIGHT	75,658	5,945,721	Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Irving, TX...Grand Prairie, TX...
MARGINAL	138,958	10,844,092	Dallas, TX...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

DAY1 HAIL PROBABILITY (SIGNIFICANT RISK)

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	24,546	456,015	Abilene, TX...San Angelo, TX...Brownwood, TX...Stephenville, TX...
15 %	75,552	5,904,414	Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Irving, TX...Grand Prairie, TX...
5 %	138,852	10,889,089	Dallas, TX...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

2 %

67,187

6,043,354

Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...Irving, TX...

DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

15 %	41,991	4,157,840	Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Irving, TX...Grand Prairie, TX...Waco, TX...
5 %	107,377	9,006,289	Dallas, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

..ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK FOR A PORTION OF FLORIDA TODAY WEDNESDAY MARCH 6 2024..

 

SPC has another Marginal risk area for a portion of Florida.  Satellite shows some storms developing over the left over from this mornings system.  So far models are not showing wide spread storms, but scattered isolated storms and some could be strong may be severe.

RTW

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK (MARGINAL RISK)

Mesoscale Discussion 0194

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1201 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024

   Areas affected...central/southern Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061801Z - 062000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over the
   next couple of hours. Isolated strong storms may produce hail near a
   half inch to 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds. A watch is not
   currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms along the southwest coast of the FL
   Peninsula have increased in intensity over the past 30 minutes or
   so. This activity is moving east along a weak differential heating
   zone created by early clouds and morning showers, and within a zone
   of weak low-level convergence. Despite scattered clouds across the
   central/southern Peninsula, dewpoints mostly in the upper 60s to
   near 70 F and modest midlevel lapse rates has allowed MLCAPE values
   to increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg. A 17z RAOB from MFL does
   indicated some weak inhibition in the 500-1500 m layer, though ample
   elevated instability is noted. Additional heating increasing ascent
   through the afternoon should largely mitigate inhibition.

   Vertical shear will remain somewhat marginal, around 25-35 kt, but
   sufficient for at least transient/short-lived strong/organized
   updrafts. Hail approaching 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds will
   be the main hazards with isolated thunderstorm activity through
   23-00z. Low-level winds are fairly weak, especially through 1 km.
   However, some favorable curvature to low-level hodograph (per 17z
   MFL RAOB and region radar VWPs) and effective SRH around 100 m2/s2
   amid a very moist low-level airmass could support a brief/weak
   spin-up near the southeast coast where better low-level convergence
   is noted. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain marginal
   and sporadic, and a watch is not expected at this time.

..A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR A PORTION OF FLORIDA TODAY..

 

Good morning!  Yesterday there was a General Thunderstorm outlook for today but over night SPC upgraded the outlook to a Marginal risk for Tuesday late evening.  I was reviewing the HRRR reflectivity model and it does not show much for today but I will monitor since SPC calls for a Marginal risk.

Tomorrow there is also a Marginal risk and the HRRR model does show strong storms moving over Miami Dade and Broward on Wednesday overnight between 300am and 400am.  

Water vapor satellite with Lightning shows plenty of energy with the storms that are over the Gulf.  That will be gradually tracking east toward Florida today and over night.  Stay tuned to the Storm Prediction Center for the latest severe storm outlooks.

RTW

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK (MARGINAL RISK)

MARGINAL

212,027

26,614,333

New Orleans, LA...Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...

DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY (2%)

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

2 %

38,096

15,287,934

Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Orlando, FL...

DAY 1 HAIL PROBABILITY (5%)

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

5 %

174,136

11,332,706

New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...

DAY 1 DAMAGING WINDS PROBABILITY (5%)

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

5 %

211,676

26,596,005

New Orleans, LA...Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...

HRRR MODEL SHOWS STORMS TRACKING EAST OVER FLORIDA.  THE MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH FOR TODAY THOUGH.  HOWEVER SPC CALLS FOR STORMS TODAY AS WELL AS TOMORROW.

THERE SEEMS TO BE PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE GULF.  WHITE AND BLUE IS THE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AHEAD AOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL

..DAYS 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER..

 

The Storm Prediction Center 3 day outlook shows a Marginal risk for each day as another storm system tracks east firing up showers and storms all the way into Florida by day 3.  

RTW

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

MARGINAL

344,760

46,312,009

Chicago, IL...Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...

DAY 1 DAMAGING HAIL OUTLOOK

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

5 %

344,695

46,288,262

Chicago, IL...Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...

DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

5 %

338,513

45,687,972

Chicago, IL...Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...

DAY 1 TORNADO OUTLOOK

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

2 %

78,569

11,457,181

New Orleans, LA...Madison, WI...Baton Rouge, LA...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...

 

DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

..SPC UPGRADED TO ENHANCED RISK AND A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT..

 

ENHANCED RISK

ENHANCED	41,214	11,603,460	Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...Aurora, IL...Dayton, OH...Rockford, IL...
SLIGHT	135,453	29,760,424	Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Milwaukee, WI...
MARGINAL	120,409	14,125,900	St. Louis, MO...Pittsburgh, PA...Springfield, MO...Springfield, IL...Clarksville, TN...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	24,214	3,231,071	Louisville, KY...Evansville, IN...Owensboro, KY...Fairfield, OH...Columbus, IN...
10 %	24,242	3,248,751	Louisville, KY...Evansville, IN...Hamilton, OH...Owensboro, KY...Fairfield, OH...
5 %	72,890	21,797,018	Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Cincinnati, OH...Fort Wayne, IN...
2 %	102,352	19,542,269	Detroit, MI...Milwaukee, WI...Cleveland, OH...St. Louis, MO...Toledo, OH...

HAIL THREAT

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	66,608	17,961,678	Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Milwaukee, WI...Fort Wayne, IN...Aurora, IL...
30 %	6,724	5,648,642	Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...Naperville, IL...Elgin, IL...Kenosha, WI...
15 %	152,193	32,317,653	Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Milwaukee, WI...
5 %	137,664	17,491,421	St. Louis, MO...Pittsburgh, PA...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Akron, OH...Springfield, MO...

DAMAGING WINDS THREAT

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. 

SIG SEVERE	34,833	6,055,322	Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...Dayton, OH...Evansville, IN...Hamilton, OH...
30 %	35,015	6,039,890	Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...Dayton, OH...Evansville, IN...Hamilton, OH...
15 %	130,404	33,510,695	Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...
5 %	124,801	15,705,070	Milwaukee, WI...St. Louis, MO...Pittsburgh, PA...Springfield, MO...Springfield, IL...

..SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY STAY ALERT!..

 

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio local media in your areas and the Storm Prediction Center for the latest updates.

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK (SLIGHT RISK)

SLIGHT	166,284	38,913,125	Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...
MARGINAL	118,734	16,034,559	Milwaukee, WI...St. Louis, MO...Pittsburgh, PA...Akron, OH...Clarksville, TN...

DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

5 %	97,559	20,159,821	Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...Fort Wayne, IN...
2 %	82,888	21,926,498	Detroit, MI...Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...St. Louis, MO...Toledo, OH...

DAY 1 HAIL OUTLOOK (SIGNIFICANT RISK IN THE BLACK HATCHED AREA )

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	81,908	20,484,530	Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Toledo, OH...Fort Wayne, IN...Aurora, IL...
15 %	157,939	37,131,999	Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...
5 %	126,824	17,758,370	Milwaukee, WI...St. Louis, MO...Pittsburgh, PA...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Akron, OH...

DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

15 %	166,246	38,883,643	Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...
5 %	118,672	16,047,644	Milwaukee, WI...St. Louis, MO...Pittsburgh, PA...Akron, OH...Clarksville, TN...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK