LAST NIGHTTHERE WAS A MARGINAL RISK BUT TODAY THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. BELOW IS THE 48 HR HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVTY MODEL. STAY TUNED TO THE STROM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Thursday, March 21, 2024
..THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY..
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FLZ068-072-074-168-172-173-221000-/O.NEW.KMFL.WI.Y.0003.240322T1600Z-240324T0000Z/
Metro Palm Beach County-Metro Broward County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-
Including the cities of Boynton Beach, Delray Beach, Lake Worth,
Palm Beach Gardens, Florida Gardens, Greenacres City,
Sandalfoot Cove, Hollywood, Pembroke Pines, Coral Springs,
Sawgrass Mills Mal, Sunrise, Davie, Miramar, Hialeah, Kendall,
Carol City, Kendale Lakes, West Palm Beach, Boca Raton, Jupiter,
Riviera Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Pompano Beach, Deerfield Beach,
and Miami
154 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...
* WHAT...South winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph
expected.
* WHERE...Metro Palm Beach County, Metro Broward County,
Metropolitan Miami Dade, Coastal Palm Beach County, Coastal
Broward County and Coastal Miami Dade County.
* WHEN...From noon Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday.
* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
.. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE NATIOANL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI..
FLZ069>075-172>174-220130-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0001.240322T1200Z-240324T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward
County-Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-Metropolitan
Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami
Dade County-Far South Miami-Dade County-
Including the cities of Pompano Beach, Kendall, Hollywood,
Mahogany Hammock, Pa-Hay Okee Overlook, East Naples, Sunniland,
Shark Valley Obs Tower, Bonita Shores, Bunker Hill, Kendale
Lakes, Marco Island, Marco Island Airport, Deerfield Beach, North
Naples, Hialeah, Carol City, Florida City, Davie, Northwest Cape
Sable, Naples, Royal Palm Hammock, Coral Springs, Sunrise, Miami,
Orange Tree, North Blocks Golde, Fort Lauderdale, Golden Gate,
Sawgrass Mills Mal, Pembroke Pines, Miles City, Redland,
Immokalee, Miramar, Royal Palm Ranger, Miccosukee Indian
Reservation, and Fortymile Bend
126 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
* WHERE...Portions of southeast and southwest Florida, including the
following areas, in southeast Florida, Coastal Broward County,
Coastal Miami Dade County, Far South Miami-Dade County, Inland
Broward County, Inland Miami-Dade County, Metro Broward County and
Metropolitan Miami Dade. In southwest Florida, Coastal Collier
County, Inland Collier County and Mainland Monroe.
* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- 3 to 5 inches of widespread rainfall with locally higher
amounts possible.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0001.240322T1200Z-240324T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward
County-Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-Metropolitan
Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami
Dade County-Far South Miami-Dade County-
Including the cities of Pompano Beach, Kendall, Hollywood,
Mahogany Hammock, Pa-Hay Okee Overlook, East Naples, Sunniland,
Shark Valley Obs Tower, Bonita Shores, Bunker Hill, Kendale
Lakes, Marco Island, Marco Island Airport, Deerfield Beach, North
Naples, Hialeah, Carol City, Florida City, Davie, Northwest Cape
Sable, Naples, Royal Palm Hammock, Coral Springs, Sunrise, Miami,
Orange Tree, North Blocks Golde, Fort Lauderdale, Golden Gate,
Sawgrass Mills Mal, Pembroke Pines, Miles City, Redland,
Immokalee, Miramar, Royal Palm Ranger, Miccosukee Indian
Reservation, and Fortymile Bend
126 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
* WHERE...Portions of southeast and southwest Florida, including the
following areas, in southeast Florida, Coastal Broward County,
Coastal Miami Dade County, Far South Miami-Dade County, Inland
Broward County, Inland Miami-Dade County, Metro Broward County and
Metropolitan Miami Dade. In southwest Florida, Coastal Collier
County, Inland Collier County and Mainland Monroe.
* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- 3 to 5 inches of widespread rainfall with locally higher
amounts possible.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
..SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING..
I continue to monitor the model run for this low that is supposed to strengthen a bit over the Gulf on approach to Florida.
However, models seem to show that the intensity of these storms seems to break up over southern Florida, causing stronger cells to split apart.
This makes it difficult to tell what areas will be affected by the strong storm cells. The Storm Prediction Center still has a marginal risk for southern Florida late Friday Night and on Saturday morning, and some areas could still experience strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusty winds, lighting, hail, and heavy downpours that can produce localized flooding in those areas prone too street floods. Also an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
Below, you can read the Storm Prediction Center (Southeast) synopsis for this storm system.
RTW
...Southeast...
Even with the aforementioned uncertainties, it does appear that an
initially dry/potentially cool low-level environment, across much of
the Florida peninsula through eastern Gulf Coast region, will tend
to maintain generally stable conditions inland of coastal areas as
initial convection supported by warm advection overspreads it.
However, based on various model output, including some
convection-allowing guidance, there appears potential for at least
one initially organized convective cluster to overspread the Florida
Keys/southern Florida peninsula vicinity, coincident with a warm
front off the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early Friday. Given
sufficient boundary-layer destabilization in the presence of strong
deep-layer shear, this may be accompanied by a risk for damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.
Thereafter, it appears that widespread convective development,
perhaps including organizing clusters, may continue along trailing
convective outflow gradually advancing across and east-southeast of
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through early Saturday. Convective
potential to the north of this outflow remains unclear. However,
models do indicate that substantive boundary-layer destabilization
is possible across much of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by late
Friday night, ahead of a weak southeastward advancing cold front.
Still ahead of the mid-level troughing axis, this environment may
support additional scattered strong thunderstorm development which
might spread inland across coastal areas before weakening.Days 2-3 Friday/Saturday severe storm outlook (Marginal Risk)
Risk Areas:
| MARGINAL | 28,698 | 10,287,668 | Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL... |
Day 2 Hail Outlook
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Areas:
| 5 % | 10,763 | 2,481,103 | Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Clearwater, FL...Largo, FL...Palm Harbor, FL... |
Day 2 Tornado Outlook
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Areas:
| 2 % | 28,718 | 10,319,869 | Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL.. |
Day 2 Damaging Winds Outlook
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Areas:
| 5 % | 28,478 | 10,302,841 | Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL... |
Day 3 Severe Storm Outlook (Marginal Risk)
Risk Areas:
| MARGINAL | 9,032 | 1,875,828 | Miami Beach, FL...Kendall, FL...The Hammocks, FL...Kendale Lakes, FL...North Miami, FL... |
Day 3 Saturdays Severe Storm Probability
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Areas:
| 5 % | 8,820 | 1,801,409 | Miami Beach, FL...Kendall, FL...The Hammocks, FL...Kendale Lakes, FL...Coral Gables, FL... |
GFS Average Precipitation Rate model
HRRR Radar Reflectivity model
ECMWF (EURO) Average Precipitation Rate model
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
..THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER NOW HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY EVENING..
Well the Storm Prediction Center has posted a Marginal risk for severe storms over south Florida on Friday as models continue to suggest that stormy conditions are possible Friday evening and over night to Saturday morning.
A Low pressure in the Gulf is forecast to to develop some and track over Florida bringing a possible risk for strong to severe storms over the Florida Peninsula.
The Weather Prediction Center also posted a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall for most of the state of Florida as this low is forecast to bring plenty of precipitation with it.
Monday, March 18, 2024
..DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK AND A HEADS UP FOR FLORIDA ON POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS FRIDAY..
Day-1 Severe Storm Outlook shows a Marginal Risk for a portion of Florida today as showers and storms will develop along a frontal boundary as it moves south through the state.
As for Friday the GFS and EURO models are hinting at a low pressure system tracking east across Florida and bring with it the possibility of heavy rains, and strong to severe storms over the southern Peninsula. I will continue to monitor it and will post here in the coming days.
The Storm Prediction Center does not have anything on this as of now, but if the models continue to show this they may post something as we get closer to Friday.
RTW
DAY-1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK
| MARGINAL | 25,129 | 10,931,195 | Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Coral Springs, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL... |
DAY-1 TORNADO OUTLOOK
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
| 2 % | 2,649 | 1,292,270 | Port St. Lucie, FL...West Palm Beach, FL...Palm Bay, FL...Melbourne, FL...Jupiter, FL... |
DAY-1 DAMAGING HAIL OUTLOOK
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
| 5 % | 20,041 | 7,650,611 | Orlando, FL...Coral Springs, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...West Palm Beach, FL...Lakeland, FL... |
DAY-1 DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
| 5 % | 25,198 | 10,971,762 | Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Hollywood, FL... |
AND HERE IS THE EURO AND THE GFS MODELS SHOWING HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS MOVING OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
..SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK DAYS 1-3 SLIGHT TO A MARGINAL RISK..
The Storm Prediction Center has a slight to marginal risk area days 1-3. Check back later this morning and afternoon for the latest updates from SPC.
RTW
DAYS 1-3 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK
| MARGINAL | 32,126 | 2,551,479 | Overland Park, KS...Springfield, MO...Independence, MO...Columbia, MO...Blue Springs, MO... |
DAY 2 RISK AREAS:
| SLIGHT | 26,581 | 2,786,541 | Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...Olathe, KS... |
| MARGINAL | 110,776 | 5,480,039 | Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Lincoln, NE...Columbia, MO...Broken Arrow, OK... |
DAY 3 RISK AREAS:
| SLIGHT | 190,584 | 17,939,784 | Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX... |
| MARGINAL | 232,996 | 29,775,781 | Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK... |
DAYS 1 TORNADO OUTLOOK DAY 3 PROBABILITY OUTLOOK
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
DAY 2 RISK AREAS:
| SIG SEVERE | 105,512 | 12,340,890 | Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX... |
| 15 % | 190,904 | 17,914,946 | Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX... |
| 5 % | 230,887 | 29,351,134 | Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK... |
Friday, March 8, 2024
..SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAYS 1 AND 2 SLIGHT RISK HEAVY RAINFALL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS WELL..
I HAVE ANIMATED DAYS 1 AND 2 SO I CAN SHORTEN IT A BIT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMGING HAIL AND WINDS. STAY ALERT AND CHECK THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
RTW
DAY 1-2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 AREAS AT RISK:
THESE MAPS AND RISK AREAS WILL CHANGE OFTEN
SO MAKE SURE TO CHECK SPC FOR THE LATEST!
| SLIGHT | 87,435 | 6,385,970 | Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Shreveport, LA...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA... |
| MARGINAL | 139,296 | 16,247,269 | Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX... |
DAY 2 AREAS AT RISK:
| SLIGHT | 120,242 | 14,711,651 | Jacksonville, FL...Atlanta, GA...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL... |
| MARGINAL | 87,349 | 16,477,832 | Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC... |
DAY 1-2 TORNADO OUTLOOK
DAY 1 AREAS AT RISK:
THESE MAPS AND RISK AREAS WILL CHANGE OFTEN
SO MAKE SURE TO CHECK SPC FOR THE LATEST!
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
| 5 % | 51,361 | 2,623,323 | Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Auburn, AL...Hattiesburg, MS...Alexandria, LA... |
| 2 % | 60,325 | 6,216,535 | Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Lafayette, LA... |
DAY 2 TORNADO OUTLOOK
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
| 5 % | 124,485 | 17,353,410 | Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL... |
DAY 1-2 DAMAGING HAIL OUTLOOK
DAY 1 AREAS AT RISK:
THESE MAPS AND RISK AREAS WILL CHANGE OFTEN
SO MAKE SURE TO CHECK SPC FOR THE LATEST!
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
| 15 % | 54,686 | 3,768,679 | Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...Jackson, MS...Bossier City, LA...Hattiesburg, MS... |
| 5 % | 116,372 | 13,789,296 | Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX... |
DAY 2 DAMAGING HAIL OUTLOOK
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
| 5 % | 72,745 | 7,464,274 | Savannah, GA...Fayetteville, NC...Columbia, SC...Charleston, SC...Macon, GA... |
DAY 1-2 DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK
DAY 1 AREAS AT RISK:
THESE MAPS AND RISK AREAS WILL CHANGE OFTEN
SO MAKE SURE TO CHECK SPC FOR THE LATEST!
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
| 15 % | 84,060 | 6,042,378 | Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...Jackson, MS... |
| 5 % | 142,819 | 16,613,581 | Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX... |
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
| 15 % | 87,757 | 8,524,057 | Jacksonville, FL...Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...Columbia, SC...Charleston, SC... |
| 5 % | 65,016 | 13,950,301 | Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Durham, NC...Columbus, GA... |
DAYS 1-2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
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