National Hurricane Center
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 02N28W
to 12N27W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a low or favorable
deep layer wind shear envioronment. However, the GOES-16 Dust RGB
and Split window imagery show the wave is being affected by dry
air and dust, especially in the northern half of the wave
environment. No deep convection is associated with the wave.
A tropical wave is over the central Atlc with axis extending from
04N47W to 13N44W, moving W at 10 kt. Similar to the wave in the E
Atlc, this wave is being affected by the presence of dry air and
dust in its environment along with strong deep layer wind shear.
Therefore, no deep convection is associated with this wave at this
time.
A tropical wave is within 225 nm SE of the Windward Islands with
axis extending from 06N58W to 14N56W, moving W at 10 kt. This wave
is within a very moist environment and under middle to upper level
diffluent flow, which is supporting scattered moderate convection
from 10N to 14N between 55W and 60W.
A tropical wave moving westward over the central Caribbean has an
axis extending from the Guajira Peninsula in NE Colombia near
12N73W to the S coast of the Dominican Republic near 18N71W,
moving W around 15 kt. African dust surrounds the wave. As a
result, only shallow moisture and virtually no convection is
associated with this wave.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 181136
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with an upper-level low pressure system
interacting with a surface trough located near the Texas coast.
Development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland
over Texas later today and tonight. However, heavy rainfall and
flash flooding across portions of southern and southeastern Texas
are likely to continue during the next few days. For more
details on this disturbance and the threat for heavy rainfall,
please see products issued by your local weather office and High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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