...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave came off the coast of Africa last night. It axis extends from 05N19W to 13N18W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a low or favorable deep layer wind shear environment. However, the GOES-16 Dust RGB and Split window imagery show the wave is being affected by dry air and dust, especially in the northern wave environment. No deep convection is associated with the wave. Isolated showers are from 05N-13N between 13W-22W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 03N31W to 12N29W, moving W at 20 kt. Similar to the wave in the E Atlc, this wave is in a low or favorable deep layer wind shear environment. However, is being affected by dry air and dust, especially in the northern wave environment. No deep convection is associated with the wave at the time. A tropical wave is over the central Atlc with axis extending from 04N48W to 14N45W, moving W at 15-20 kt. GOES-16 RGB imagery show dry air and dust intrusion in the wave environment, which along with strong deep layer wind shear inhibit deep convection at the time. Shallow moisture and middle to upper level diffluence support isolated showers from 07N-12N between 45W-50W. A tropical wave is within 120 nm SE of the Windward Islands with axis extending from 06N60W to 14N58W, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is within a very moist environment and under middle to upper level diffluent flow, which is supporting scattered moderate convection from 07N to 16N between 57W and 63W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from 09N76W to 19N74W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a strong or unfavorable deep layer wind shear environment and GOES-16 middle and lower level water vapor imagery show very dry air in the central Caribbean. These two factor are hindering the development of deep convection at the time.
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler Radar data indicate that a surface trough associated with an upper-level low pressure system has moved onto the coast of Texas. This system continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms and strong gusty winds over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of southern and southeastern Texas are likely to continue during the next few days. For more details on this disturbance and the threat for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Forecaster Roberts
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FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS! ...RTW
DAY 1-5 RAINFALL OUTLOOK
DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
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