TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 19, 2018... 1107 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Surface observations and NOAA Doppler weather radar data indicate
that a surface trough associated with a low- and mid-level low 
pressure system has moved inland over the Texas coastal plain. 
Although this system is producing a widespread area of cloudiness 
and disorganized showers and thunderstorms, interaction with land 
and proximity to dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere 
should prevent a tropical cyclone forming. However, this 
disturbance is likely to produce additional heavy rainfall and 
flash flooding across portions of southern and southeastern Texas 
during the next few days. As much as 7 to 10 inches of rainfall is
possible along the Texas Coastal bend during the next 1 to 2 
days. For more details on this disturbance and the threat for 
heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local weather 
office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave axis extends from 05N22W to 14N22W, moving W from 
Africa around 20 kt in a low vertical shear environment. Composite
TPW satellite imagery shows this system is embedded in deep layer
moisture. Despite the favorable environment, only moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 07N between 22W and 25W.

A tropical wave axis in the central Atlc extends from 04N35W to 
12N34W, moving W around 15 kt in a high shear environment due to
an upper-level trough over the Atlc near 40W. It is being 
affected by dry air and dust, and no deep convection is associated
with this wave.

A tropical wave axis in the west-central Atlc extends from 
05N52W to 14N49W, moving W around 10 kt. GOES-16 RGB imagery 
shows dry air and dust intrusion in the wave environment, which 
along with strong wind shear is inhibiting deep convection.

A tropical wave axis entering the eastern Caribbean extends from 
05N65W to 16N64W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is within a 
very moist environment and upper level diffluent flow, supporting 
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over the Leeward
Islands from 13N to 17N between 61W and 65W.

A tropical wave axis over the western Caribbean extends from 
10N80W to 20N80W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt in a strong wind shear 
environment. GOES-16 middle and lower level water vapor imagery 
show very dry air in the region. These two factors are hindering 
the development of deep convection at the time. 

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The tropics remain quiet at this time.  Flooding potential persist

for Southeast Texas...RTW 

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