TORPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 18, 2018... 0426 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Surface observations and NOAA Doppler weather radar data indicate
that a deep layer low pressure system has consolidated W of 
Corpus Christi Texas near 28N98W. Although this system is 
producing a widespread area of cloudiness and disorganized showers
and thunderstorms, interaction with land and proximity to dry air
in the mid-levels of the atmosphere over W Texas and NE Mexico 
should prevent a tropical cyclone from forming. However, this 
disturbance is likely to produce additional heavy rainfall and 
flash flooding across portions of southern and southeastern Texas 
during the next few days. As much as 7 to 10 inches of additional 
rainfall is possible over south Texas along the Texas Coastal Bend
during the next 1 to 2 days. Strong SE to S winds can be expected
over the western Gulf N of 25N between 92W and 96W, primarily in 
bands of deep convection through this evening. Winds and seas are 
expected to subside Tonight and Wed as this system gradually 
weakens. For more details on this disturbance and the threat for 
heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local weather 
office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave over the eastern Atlc has an axis extending from 
02N19W to 11N21W, moving W from Africa around 20 kt in a low 
vertical shear environment. Composite TPW satellite imagery shows 
this system is embedded in deep layer moisture. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is found from 03N to 06N between 
18W and 21W.

A tropical wave over the central Atlc has an axis extending from 
02N33W to 11N34W, moving W around 15 kt in a moderate shear 
environment due to an upper-level trough over the Atlc near 40W. 
Dry Saharan air and dust are limiting convection on the W side of 
this wave. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
found from 03N to 06N between 27W and 36W.

A tropical wave over the west-central Atlc has an axis extending
from 05N54W to 14N51W, moving W around 10 kt. GOES-16 RGB imagery
shows dry air and dust surrounding the N side of the wave. 
Convergent upper- level winds are also inhibiting deep convection.
Consequently, only spotty cloudiness and isolated showers are 
observed within 90 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean has an axis
extending from 09N66W to 19N63W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. This 
wave is within a very moist environment and upper level diffluent 
flow, supporting scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
over the Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands from 12N to 19N 
between 61W and 65W. 

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