TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 5, 2017 1057 AM EDT

RTW:
There is an area of showers  with a small nucleus of colder cloud tops where the stronger storms are located ahead of the Low Level Circulation (LLC).  If this circulation can manage to catch up with the convectiom (thunderstorms) then we will see a depression form later today or tomorrow. Most of the models are still suggesting a weak system although intensity models say a tropical storm.  According to atmospherirc data the conditions ahead of this system will become unfavorable in the coming days and this could be what the models are suggesting.  I will keep you posted.  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

  

NCAR

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

WSI CORP.

TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 5, 2017 1204 AM EDT

Invest 94L seems to be slowly moving toward the north-northwest but is forecast to turn back toward the west-northwest after in track to higher longitudes.  This evening this system which now has a wave as part of the low level circulation has developed a symmetrical ball of convection (thunderstorm) with a small nucleus in the center of colder cloud tops stronger thunderstorms.

I will keep watching it for you in the coming days.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 4TH 2017 0321 PM EDT

Invest 94L still does not have a closed circulation.  Low is some what exposed and convection (thunderstorms) is to the west of the circulation.  Southeasterly shear is over this system at this time and 94L is still forecast to become a depression in a day or so.  So far the intensity models suggest a tropical storm and one model a cat 1 hurricane.  

The forecast model tracks are to the west northwest with a leftward bias by the end of the forecast.  The leftward bias could be high pressure building westward over 94L.  However, 94L is still to far out to say where it may be headed.  Keep monitoring here daily for updates.

NHC has a HIGH probability of 70% within 48 hrs of development and a HIGH probability of 80% within the next 5 days. 

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

 WSI CORP.

 

HAPPY 4TH OF JULY TO ALL!

HAPPY 4TH OF JULY
FROM RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER!

EVENING TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 3, 2017 1103 PM EDT

INVEST 94L:
Storm Investigation 94L continues to slowly become better organized.  This 1011 mb is Low is between 33° and 34° West Latitude.   Although they say this system is nearly stationary it seems to have drifted more toward the West and West-Northwest.  Sahara air layer is still to the north of this system near 12° N longitude.  Being that this system is now at a lower Longitude it and along a monsoonal trough the showers are more numerous. 

NHC has now raised the probability of development to Medium chance within 48 hrs. and the High remains at 70% within the next 48 hrs for now. 

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

 WSI CORP.

 

UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST

Tonight Jul 3 2017

Partly cloudy. Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH.

Tuesday Jul 4

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly Cloudy during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind to 10 MPH.

Wednesday Jul 5

Partly Cloudy during the ay: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. East wind 8 to 13 MPH.

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind to 12 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Jul 6

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday Jul 7

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. East southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southeast wind to 7 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday Jul 8

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. South southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Sunday Jul 9

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR IS COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA

TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 3, 2017 0421 PM EDT

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather

Keeping an eye on the low near 34° West Latitude for development in the coming days.  Latest satellite animation shows a small circulation obscured by clouds and the showers are becoming more numerous as this system meanders for now at a lower longitude between 08° and 10° North.

Being at these lower Longitudes seems to have help this system a bit since the Sahara Air Layer is north of 12° North Longitude, and this low is within a moist monsoonal trough which is enhancing shower activity around this system.  

NHC is has up the LOW chance to 30% within 48 hrs. and the HIGH chance remains at 70% during the next 5-days.

Stay tuned here for the latest on Storm Invest 94 L

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 STORM INVESTIGATION 94L MAP BY RTW

  

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

WSI CORPORATION

TOMORROWS 4 OF JULY THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

 

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Tomorrow's Severe Thunderstorm Outlook. #Hail #PDR #Roofing #Insurance #HailPoint

TODAY'S THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

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Today's Updated Thunderstorm Outlook. #Hail #PDR #Roofing #Insurance #Hailpoint

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE JULY 3, 2017 1140 AM EDT

A tropical wave that was part of a low pressure has detached and is now to the west of the low near 39° West Latitude. The low is now considered STORM INVEST 94L since probabilities for development are rising. The low has been meandering, and is now a bit further south around 09° North Longitude and near 33° West Latitude.  This may be a tad more favorable for development if it begins tracking westward at those low longitutdes and away from the Sahara Air Layer (African dust & dry air ) that is presently north of 12° North Longitude of where the low is located.

High pressure over the Atlantic north of this system will eventually begin steering this low to the west or west-northwest and north of the northern Leeward Islands as most models suggest.  Still to early to say if that forecast will hold because the atmosphere changes constantly.

NHC is giving this system a LOW chance 20% within 48 hrs. and has increased to HIGH chance 70% within the next 5-days.

Stayed tuned here daily for the latest of the tropics.  Models are
RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

WSI INTELLICAST