TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 4TH 2017 0321 PM EDT

Invest 94L still does not have a closed circulation.  Low is some what exposed and convection (thunderstorms) is to the west of the circulation.  Southeasterly shear is over this system at this time and 94L is still forecast to become a depression in a day or so.  So far the intensity models suggest a tropical storm and one model a cat 1 hurricane.  

The forecast model tracks are to the west northwest with a leftward bias by the end of the forecast.  The leftward bias could be high pressure building westward over 94L.  However, 94L is still to far out to say where it may be headed.  Keep monitoring here daily for updates.

NHC has a HIGH probability of 70% within 48 hrs of development and a HIGH probability of 80% within the next 5 days. 

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

 WSI CORP.