..DANGEORUS WEATHER EVENT TODAY.. ..STAY ALERT AND LISTEN TO THE LATEST UPDATE..

 

DAY 1 CATEGORICAL SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK!

RISK AREAS:

MODERATE	129,314	10,892,895	Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Des Moines, IA...Springfield, IL...Peoria, IL...
ENHANCED	153,183	19,617,809	Chicago, IL...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Jackson, MS...
SLIGHT	143,746	17,189,408	Indianapolis, IN...Nashville, TN...Louisville, KY...Birmingham, AL...Madison, WI...
MARGINAL	246,244	23,786,947	Milwaukee, WI...New Orleans, LA...Minneapolis, MN...Cincinnati, OH...St. Paul, MN...

TORNADO PROBABILITY!

RISK AREAS:

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)

SIG SEVERE	175,226	13,717,198	Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Jackson, MS...Springfield, IL...Evansville, IN...
15 %	52,050	6,096,308	Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Jackson, TN...St. Charles, MO...St. Peters, MO...
10 %	123,509	7,688,409	Jackson, MS...Springfield, IL...Evansville, IN...Peoria, IL...Clarksville, TN...
5 %	166,204	25,628,955	Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Nashville, TN...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...
2 %	146,349	16,026,914	New Orleans, LA...Cincinnati, OH...Fort Wayne, IN...Madison, WI...Baton Rouge, LA...

DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY!

RISK AREAS:

SIG SEVERE	274,231	33,871,312	Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...
45 %	100,827	8,445,181	St. Louis, MO...Des Moines, IA...Springfield, IL...Peoria, IL...Davenport, IA...
30 %	114,577	17,621,151	Chicago, IL...Memphis, TN...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Aurora, IL...
15 %	211,625	21,626,878	Indianapolis, IN...Nashville, TN...Kansas City, MO...Louisville, KY...Birmingham, AL...
5 %	227,849	22,778,631	Milwaukee, WI...New Orleans, LA...Minneapolis, MN...Cincinnati, OH...St. Paul, MN...

HAIL PROBABILITY!

RISK AREAS:

SIG SEVERE	132,953	10,105,087	Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Springfield, IL...Peoria, IL...Davenport, IA...
30 %	59,479	6,430,188	Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Jackson, TN...St. Charles, MO...Jonesboro, AR...
15 %	305,862	26,976,440	Nashville, TN...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Birmingham, AL...
5 %	242,464	32,842,781	Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Milwaukee, WI...Minneapolis, MN...Cincinnati, OH...

..DAY 2 MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.. ..MONITOR THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR UPDATES..

 

Tomorrow day 2 severe storm outlook also a moderate risk. Monitor the Storm Prediction Center for the latest updates.

Categorical Day2 0600Z Outlook

MODERATE	74,535	6,595,945	St. Louis, MO...Springfield, IL...Peoria, IL...Decatur, IL...Champaign, IL...
ENHANCED	148,946	10,949,371	Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Des Moines, IA...Jackson, MS...Cedar Rapids, IA...
SLIGHT	161,726	25,615,980	Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Omaha, NE...Louisville, KY...Birmingham, AL...
MARGINAL	238,564	25,952,475	Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...New Orleans, LA...Minneapolis, MN...Cincinnati, OH...

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)

SIG SEVERE	167,510	13,066,521	Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Jackson, MS...Springfield, IL...Evansville, IN...
10 %	167,636	13,064,310	Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Jackson, MS...Springfield, IL...Evansville, IN...
5 %	115,519	11,196,816	Nashville, TN...Birmingham, AL...Des Moines, IA...Little Rock, AR...Aurora, IL...
2 %	148,321	22,057,020	Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Louisville, KY...

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)

SIG SEVERE	275,941	26,512,911	Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Omaha, NE...St. Louis, MO...Des Moines, IA...
45 %	74,500	6,590,875	St. Louis, MO...Springfield, IL...Peoria, IL...Decatur, IL...Champaign, IL...
30 %	128,271	9,821,432	Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Des Moines, IA...Cedar Rapids, IA...Evansville, IN...
15 %	182,150	26,850,069	Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Omaha, NE...Louisville, KY...Birmingham, AL...
5 %	239,216	25,893,933	Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...New Orleans, LA...Minneapolis, MN...Cincinnati, OH...

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. (More Info

SIG SEVERE	128,916	9,964,289	Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Springfield, IL...Peoria, IL...Davenport, IA...
30 %	44,478	4,476,087	St. Louis, MO...St. Charles, MO...St. Peters, MO...Florissant, MO...Chesterfield, MO...
15 %	315,039	32,669,424	Chicago, IL...Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Omaha, NE...Birmingham, AL...
5 %	206,495	24,900,793	Indianapolis, IN...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...Minneapolis, MN...Cincinnati, OH...

DAY 3 IS NOW HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND DAMAGING TORNADO!

 

Moderate risk for severe storms and tornado on day 3! Monitor the Storm Prediction Center for changes to the forecast out risk areas.

Categorical Outlook:
These are the risk areas at this time:

MODERATE	64,015	6,517,615	New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...
ENHANCED	131,293	16,732,431	Nashville, TN...Atlanta, GA...Columbus, GA...Knoxville, TN...Huntsville, AL...
SLIGHT	182,466	27,416,384	Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...Cleveland, OH...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...
MARGINAL	105,921	13,395,305	Indianapolis, IN...Charlotte, NC...Toledo, OH...Fort Wayne, IN...Winston-Salem, NC...

Probabilistic Outlook:

Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	195,570	23,301,787	Nashville, TN...New Orleans, LA...Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...
45 %	63,985	6,513,463	New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...
30 %	131,443	16,735,634	Nashville, TN...Atlanta, GA...Columbus, GA...Knoxville, TN...Huntsville, AL...
15 %	182,879	27,608,430	Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...Cleveland, OH...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...
5 %	105,790	13,391,165	Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Charlotte, NC...Toledo, OH...Fort Wayne, IN...

MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A COLD SATURDAY

 

06z and latest 12z models still showing another cold morning Saturday in the mid to lower 40°s. A bit breezy so It will make feel like upper 30°s in Miami-Dade and Broward and colder west of Lake Okeechobee. Don't forget to bring your pets in door during these cold weather events. If you feel cold so do they!

WAKING UP TO ANOTHER GLOOMY MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND A STIFF BREEZE!

 

Follow me on Facebook daily updates there! Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

A chilly, damp, foggy start to the morning in south Florida courtesy of another cold front. In the next few days, another front will drop in, reinforcing the cold air, and temps will be much colder than this morning. Looking at 40s at 7 am Friday and Saturday morning with highs in the 60s. Below are this morning's forecast models.

..THE COLDER TEMPS ON THE WAY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NOV 19, 2024..

 

Good afternoon to all!

Well, we are finally going to feel colder temperatures Friday through Monday. Well deserved, being that this summer was brutal.

There will be a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms as the front passes through Wednesday into Thursday morning. You can't rule out one of those storms being strong; however, nothing severe is expected as SPC has a general thunderstorm risk for the state of Florida.

The strongest of the weather today will be from Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

Most of the models show that convective activity in the northern Gulf will be losing its energy as it approaches the Florida west coast. This enhancement of thunderstorms comes from Sara's left-over energy.

Most of the models show that convective activity in the northern Gulf will be losing its energy as it approaches the Florida west coast. This enhancement of thunderstorms comes from Sara's left-over energy.