...RELENTLESS TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN
A SAFE PLACE, AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS...
000
WTNT34 KNHC 291501
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017
...RELENTLESS TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN
A SAFE PLACE, AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 94.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to Morgan
City Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from east of Morgan City to
Grand Isle Louisiana.
The Tropical Storm Warning from Port O'Connor to Mesquite Bay
has been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Port O'Connor to Morgan City Louisiana
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City to Grand Isle
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar to Morgan City
Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 94.3 West. Harvey is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A general
north-northeast track is expected today and tomorrow. On the
forecast track, the center of Harvey is expected to be just offshore
of the middle and upper coasts of Texas through tonight, then move
inland over the northwestern Gulf coast early Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is expected before the
center moves inland. A gradual weakening should begin thereafter.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches through Friday over parts of the
upper Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm
totals may reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the
Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently
producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large
portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE.
DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and
products issued by your local National Weather Service office for
additional information on this life-threatening situation.
Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts
of 5 to 10 inches across portions of southern Louisiana into coastal
Mississippi and Alabama. Rainfall associated with Harvey will spread
north by mid to late week, with rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches
spreading into portions of Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley.
A preliminary report from one Texas rain gauge has broken the Texas
tropical cyclone rainfall record. Southeast of Houston, Mary's Creek
at Winding Road reported 49.32 inches as of 9 am CDT. This total is
higher than the previous record of 48 inches set during tropical
cyclone Amelia of 1978 at Medina, Texas.
A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
San Luis Pass to Morgan City including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist
during the next day or so. Tropical storms conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 24 hours.
SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coasts of
Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today from extreme
southeast Texas across parts of southern Louisiana, coastal
Mississippi and coastal Alabama.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Avila
...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THIS EVENING...
000
WTNT35 KNHC 291436
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017
...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THIS EVENING...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 77.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF JACKSONVILLE NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM WSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Cape
Lookout, North Carolina.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck
* Albemarle Sound
* Pamlico Sound
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area later today.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 34.4 North, longitude 77.2 West. The system is moving
toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and it is expected to
accelerate toward the northeast and east-northeast during the next
couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move near the coast
of North Carolina today and then move away from the coast over the
western Atlantic Ocean tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is not expected to change much in strength today,
and the chances for the system to become a tropical cyclone continue
to decrease. Regardless of whether or not this system becomes a
tropical cyclone, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are
expected over portions of North Carolina today. The disturbance is
forecast to strengthen at sea and become a hurricane-force
extratropical low over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean by Wednesday
evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the southeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this afternoon.
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts of 5 inches
along the northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia coasts
into the Delmarva through Wednesday. The heavier rains may result in
some flooding concerns along coastal areas.
SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of
the North Carolina and Virginia coasts during the next day or so,
creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
STORM INVEST 93L
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area near
the Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days over the
eastern Atlantic. The low is forecast to move generally
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the
next several days. Heavy rain is possible over portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
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