Monday, August 28, 2017

STORM WATCH UPDATE 0104 PM EDT AUG 28, 2017

000
WTNT34 KNHC 281448
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...CENTER OF HARVEY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR THE TEXAS
COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN
A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 96.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued east of High Island,
Texas, to Cameron, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued east of Cameron to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mesquite Bay to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Cameron to Intracoastal City

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas.  Please see warnings and other products issued by your
local National Weather Service office for additional information on
this life-threatening situation.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the middle and upper Texas coast and in
southern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of
Harvey.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 96.0 West. Harvey is
moving toward the southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slow motion
toward the southeast is expected through tonight.  A gradual turn
toward the northeast and a continued slow forward speed are expected
Tuesday and Tuesday night.  On the forecast track, the center of
Harvey is expected to be just offshore of the middle and upper
coasts of Texas through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow intensification is possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations
along the Texas coast is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches through Friday over the upper Texas
coast and into southwestern Louisiana.  Isolated storm totals may
reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/
Galveston metropolitan area.  These rains are currently producing
catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large portions
of southeastern Texas.  DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED
AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE.  DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for additional information on this
life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 15 inches farther south into the middle Texas coast and farther
east across south-central Louisiana.  Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10
inches are expected in southeast Louisiana.

A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Aransas to Morgan City including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds.  Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in rain bands well to
the east of the center of Harvey, including portions of the tropical
storm warning area along the coast.  Tropical storm conditions are
likely to persist in areas of onshore winds within the warning area
during the next couple of days, and are possible in the watch area
by Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the coasts of Texas
and Louisiana.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight from
extreme southeast Texas across parts of southern Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven 



 ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number   4...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017

Corrected to clarify that the Tropical Storm Warning begins north
of Surf City.

...DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 80.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the North Carolina
coast from north of Surf City to Duck including the Albemarle and
Pamlico Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Albemarle Sound
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within
within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the area of minimum pressure associated
with the disturbance was estimated near latitude 31.4 North,
longitude 80.3 West. The system is moving toward the north-northeast
near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion with a gradual increase in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track the system will move over or near the coast of South
Carolina today and move along the North Carolina Outer Banks on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance will likely become a tropical depression or a tropical
storm later today or Tuesday.  An Air Force plane will check the
disturbance later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
tonight and Tuesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch area later today.

RAINFALL:  The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches along the northeastern South Carolina, North
Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 9 inches.  The heavier rains may result in some
flooding concerns along coastal areas.

SURF:  Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of
the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the
next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN


12z Model Run
12z Model Run
 
A tropical wave and associated low pressure area located a few
hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
in two or three days over the eastern Atlantic.  The low is forecast
to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during
the next several days. Regardless of development, heavy rain is
possible in portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


 

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