000 WTNT34 KNHC 281448 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 ...CENTER OF HARVEY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR THE TEXAS COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 96.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued east of High Island, Texas, to Cameron, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued east of Cameron to Intracoastal City, Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mesquite Bay to Cameron A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Cameron to Intracoastal City Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern Texas. Please see warnings and other products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the middle and upper Texas coast and in southern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of Harvey. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 96.0 West. Harvey is moving toward the southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slow motion toward the southeast is expected through tonight. A gradual turn toward the northeast and a continued slow forward speed are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey is expected to be just offshore of the middle and upper coasts of Texas through Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow intensification is possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) mainly to the east of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations along the Texas coast is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches through Friday over the upper Texas coast and into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals may reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/ Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large portions of southeastern Texas. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches farther south into the middle Texas coast and farther east across south-central Louisiana. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected in southeast Louisiana. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas to Morgan City including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in rain bands well to the east of the center of Harvey, including portions of the tropical storm warning area along the coast. Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist in areas of onshore winds within the warning area during the next couple of days, and are possible in the watch area by Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight from extreme southeast Texas across parts of southern Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 4...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Corrected to clarify that the Tropical Storm Warning begins north of Surf City. ...DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 80.3W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the North Carolina coast from north of Surf City to Duck including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Surf City to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the area of minimum pressure associated with the disturbance was estimated near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 80.3 West. The system is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track the system will move over or near the coast of South Carolina today and move along the North Carolina Outer Banks on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance will likely become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or Tuesday. An Air Force plane will check the disturbance later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning tonight and Tuesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area later today. RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along the northeastern South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. The heavier rains may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
12z Model Run
12z Model Run
A tropical wave and associated low pressure area located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form in two or three days over the eastern Atlantic. The low is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible in portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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