TROPICAL UPDATE 0305 PM EDT AUG 18, 2017

Review of Invest 92L via visible satellite shows that this system is encountering upper level shear from a mid to upper level low to the north of of 92L.  Also 92L is moving through dry air and this is also hindering rapid development.  High pressure steering currents are strong and pushing this system toward the west to west-northwest.  We must continue to monitor this one closely.

Forecast guidance models still track 92L toward the west-northwest around the periphery of the high pressure ridge and toward the Bahamas and Florida.  I am now seeing a turn toward the north with some of the models you can see it on this mornings 12z model run and now on the latest 18z model run.  Disregard the CLP5 that is a historical model.  I will keep monitoring that turn toward the north for a trend, but as you still see some say Florida. There are some short run that suggest weakening of this system.

As for the intensity models a few suggest a tropical storm to a cat 1 hurricane at some point then they weaken it to a depression or below that status.  I will keep a close watch on it.   I will post on Harvey later that storm will strengthen some as it enters the eastern Caribbean.