12Zz MODEL RUN 0948 AM EDT

MODEL ARE MORE CLUSTERED TOGETHER NOW THAT IT IS CLOSE TO OUR SOUTH.  SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.  THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL GET A DIRECT HIT AND NO ONE SHOULD BE THERE.  THEY NEED TO LEAVE IMMEDIATELY OR FACE A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR INTRUSION ON THE WEST QUADRANT FOR THE STORM.  THIS AND INTERACTION WITH CUBA IS REALLY DOING A NUMBER ON THIS SYSTEM.  I WOULD NOT DOUBT IF DURING THE ELEVEN O'CLOCK  ADVISORY THE WINDS MAY HAVE DROPPED A BIT.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IT WOULD DROP TO A CAT THREE.  HOWEVER WILL SEE AS IT TRACKS AWAY FROM CUBAN COAST WATERS A VERY WARM 32°C. OR 90°F PLENTY OF FUEL FOR IRMA TO REAGIN SOME STRENGTH IF DRY AIR DON;'T CONTINUE TO INTERFERE.