...JOSE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...
000
WTNT32 KNHC 170849
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017
...JOSE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 71.7W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system. Tropical storm watches may be needed for portions of this
area during the next day or two.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 71.7 West. Jose is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with
a slight increase in forward speed is expected through early
Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the
next couple of days, but Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane
through early Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the
U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and
rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas.
For more information, please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
LOOKS LIKE JOSE WILL GET STUCK IN ANOTHER BLOCKED STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS YOU SEE ALL THOSE LOOPS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. THIS COULD ALSO DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH MARIA WILL GO IF AT ALL.
...LEE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC...
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017
...LEE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 35.4W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 35.4 West. Lee is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
forecast to continue through Monday morning. A west-northwestward
motion is expected Monday afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through Monday, and Lee is
expected to weaken to a depression on Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
...MARIA STRENGTHENING...
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017
...MARIA STRENGTHENING...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 54.9W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Barbados has changed the Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica to a Hurricane Watch.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the British and U. S.
Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches and Warnings will
likely be issued today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 54.9 West. Maria is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this
motion with a further reduction in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Maria will be near the Leeward Islands Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Maria will likely become a hurricane later today.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area on Monday.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet
above normal tide levels within the Hurricane Watch area.
RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
central and southern Leeward Islands through Wednesday night. Maria
is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in the northern
Leeward Islands and north-central Windward Islands. This rainfall
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are expected to begin affecting the
Lesser Antilles by tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
SOME MODELS TRENDING NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO WEAKNESS IN HIGH JOSE HAS LEFT BEHIND IN ITS WAKE.
COMBO MODEL RUN: THERE SEEMS TO BE A SLIGHT BEND NORTHWARD IN THAT PAST FEW MODEL RUN WILL SEE IF THAT TREND CONTINUES SINCE A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS IS LEFT BEHIND BY JOSE'S WAKE.
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