BRYAN NORCROSS Saturday update on HURRICANE IRMA -

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Saturday update on HURRICANE IRMA - Irma continues on track. The weather pattern for the next few days is straightforward. High pressure to the north will push the hurricane slightly south into a part of the ocean from which a number of great hurricanes have come. Hurricanes that passed within 75 miles of the NHC's 5-day forecast position include the 1926 Great Miami, 1947 Ft. Lauderdale/New Orleans, 1949 West Palm Beach, Donna, Betsy, Hugo, Frances, and Ike. And, of course, many storms went out to sea. The only lesson here is that the entire East Coast needs to be aware and ready to prepare.

The weather pattern that is expected to steer Irma when the storm is within striking distance of the East Coast is notoriously very difficult to forecast. This accounts for the constant changes in the long-range models. While a big dip in the jet stream is anticipated over the East, which will deflect Irma north, the future evolution of that dip is unknown. High pressure building across the Canada over the top of the dip makes the future steering very uncertain. Literally, anything is possible.

Irma is expected to come close enough to the northern Leeward Island, Virgin Island, and Puerto Rico that everyone there should have their hurricane plans in order. There will likely be threatening weather as Irma approaches on Tuesday into Wednesday. It is uncertain how close the core of the hurricane will come, but Watches could be issued as soon as tomorrow.

The message is similar for the Bahamas. Residents should be reviewing their hurricane plans.

There is NO credible forecast that can tell us who will be threatened on the U.S. East Coast, if anybody. There are too many variables in play. For now, enjoy the weekend, and be sure you're ready to take action if necessary. We wouldn't expect a U.S. hurricane threat until the end of next week.