MY ANALYSIS THIS MORNING (NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST)

Here is a quick update of what I am seeing that may be hope for Florida.
As you well know I been sharing with you the HWFI, HWRF and the HMON model run and checking for trends and shifts in the model run because of the trough digging south and east.
Last night the surface map showed the high pressure ridge over northern Florida and the front stationary and draped almost horizontally. Then I notice the HWFI, HWRF and the HMON that were trending west-northwest now trending north over Florida. I also noticed other models off the the right and over the Bahamas. So I thought okay it does not look good for Florida but the other models are out over the Bahamas so NHC forecast track will adjust over night over Florida and if the HWFI and HWRF start shifting to the right like the others this mean the High pressure ridge is shifting east because the trough is also tracking south and east pushing on the high. So this morning Model HWFI shifted way out over the Bahamas and this caught my attention. So I went to the surface map and that confirmed that shift to the right of the models. There high pressure ridge has indeed shifted to the east because the trough continues to dip south and east. There is now an opening along the east coast for Irma to move into. Lets just hope I'm correct and the trough continues dipping south and east to keep this

However, folks this is not an OFFICIAL FORECAST SO PLEASE continue preparations and be hurricane ready!

06Z

 12Z

 MY MODEL COMBO SHOWING A TREND NORTH